Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Broomes Island, MD

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Dry conditions today, severe thunderstorms return Sunday.

- 2) A cool and primarily dry pattern early in the week, followed by a return to warm and humid conditions and the potential for strong thunderstorms on Thursday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions today, severe thunderstorms return Sunday.

Quiescent wx returns today with mostly sunny skies and lower humidity. Temps will still be 5-8 degrees above average for highs (upper 80s to around 90), but it will feel cooler and less humid as dewpoints drop into upper 50s and low 60s.

Sun features the next chance for severe wx. SPC has maintained a Level 2 out of 5 (Slight Risk) for the area, however they have increased the wind probs to 30%. Could see upgrade to Level 3 out of 5 (Enhanced Risk) depending on model trends over the next 24 hours
Stay tuned for the latest

In terms of the meteorology, a sw will rotate around the base of an UL trof Sun. Ahead of the wave, southerly flow will usher in anomalous moisture with PWs nearing 2" and dewpoints near 70F. The sw will bring height falls aloft near peak heating resulting in notable instability. The above will overlap with increasing wind shear. The combination of increasing instability, shear, and large scale forcing for ascent ahead of the shortwave and an approaching cold front will lead to the development of widespread thunderstorms during the afternoon, some of which could be severe. Model soundings indicate steep low level lapse rates (especially for the Mid-Atlantic) which will result in higher DCAPE values and therefore stronger wind gusts. There's still a fair amount of spread in guidance with respect to the timing and exact placement of the storms, but as of now the threat looks to be greatest to the east of the Blue Ridge. Some guidance has discrete supercells ahead of the front, followed by linear segments which make sense given unidirectional shear. The main threats with storms will damaging winds, large hail, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. WPC has a Level 1 out of 5 (Marginal ERO) for the metros, but progressive nature and prevailing drought look to limit the overall flood threat. The system's cold front will move through Sunday night, advecting cooler and drier air into the region, which will bring the threat for severe thunderstorms to an end.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cool and dry pattern early in the week, followed by a return to warm and humid conditions and the potential for strong thunderstorms on Thursday.

UL trof is forecast to build over the region early next week and remain in place through Wed. This pattern will bring much cooler conditions to the region with daily high temps in the mid to upper 70s to lower 80s favored Mon through Wed. A combination of mid level disturbances and moisture will keep skies partly/mostly cloudy with on and off chances for showers.

Model ensembles have the trofy pattern starting to break down on Thu allowing warm and humid conditions to return to the region. Increasing moisture and temperatures along with a potential frontal passage will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Thu. Depending on the strength of the upper level shortwave driving the cold front, there could be a risk for strong thunderstorms capable of producing some gusty winds.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions and dry weather are expected today, with winds generally light out of the W/NW. Prevailing VFR conditions are expected again on Sun, but an additional round of thunderstorms may be possible during the afternoon and evening hours. Winds will generally be out of the S/SW outside of any thunderstorms.

Mid level broken to overcast clouds are favored over all terminals Mon through Wed of next week. At this time, cloud decks are likely to be VFR, but some lower clouds are possible at times.

MARINE
Light and variable winds are expected over the waters today.
Winds turn out of the south on Sun. Have issued SCA for all waters late morning through late evening. SMWs may also potentially be needed as thunderstorms move over the waters Sun afternoon into Sun evening.

Sub-SCA conditions are most likely Mon through Wed.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ530>543.