Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Broomes Island, MD

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms today as a strong cold front impacts the forecast area.

- 2) A few chances for rain through the weekend, but no hazardous weather expected between Wednesday and Sunday at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms today as a strong cold front impacts the forecast area.

A potent surface low pressure system tracks east from the Great Lakes region towards New England today with the associated cold front pushing across the forecast area later today. This strong cold front, combined with a deep upper level trough digging across eastern CONUS, leads to an increased chance of scattered severe thunderstorms this afternoon and into the evening. Showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage between 2PM and 8PM with storms lingering later in the southeastern portions of the forecast area.
Multiple bowing and linear segments are possible with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard type. That being said, cooling mid-level temperatures contributes to a threat of large hail and a brief tornado is possible due to low-level shear. The Storm Prediction Center has the majority of the forecast area (with the exception of western Maryland being in a marginal risk) in a slight risk for severe weather.

In addition to the severe weather threat, a moist airmass with PWATS exceeding 1.7 inches makes strong thunderstorms capable of producing torrential downpours. Where PWATS and ensemble QPF probabilities are highest, a Flood Watch is in effect from 8AM this morning to 2AM early Wednesday morning in northeast Maryland. The most vulnerable locations would be urbanized areas along I-95 as well as areas which have experienced heavy rainfall in recent days. Recent HRRR probabilities have slightly shifted the bullseye of QPF maxima eastward, so kept the Flood Watch northeast of the DC metros although an expansion may be needed later should future guidance indicate an increased risk.

In the wake of the frontal system, surface high pressure builds over the area from the west with slightly cooler and drier conditions expected Wednesday and Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A few chances for rain through the weekend, but no hazardous weather expected between Wednesday and Sunday at this time.

The upper-low over the northeast CONUS will linger through Friday before finally pulling off to the northeast. As a result, there will be non-zero rain chances each day, primarily areas further north and east. Friday could be dry for all, but still a bit of uncertainty regarding exactly when the upper low departs.

A broad upper-level trough will begin to form over the Ohio River Valley over the weekend. As this trough tracks east, cloud cover & precipitation chances will begin to increase, particularly between Saturday evening and Sunday as the low tracks offshore and towards the northeast. Severe probabilities look low at this time, with a pretty weak wind field aloft. Nonetheless, weekend showers are possible with this system should the synoptic setup continue to trend toward development over the Midwest.



AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A strong frontal system brings showers and thunderstorms to the terminals on today. Sub-VFR conditions are expected both this morning during showers and thunderstorms and later in the afternoon as strong to severe thunderstorms track across the forecast area.
Strong wind gusts, low ceilings, reduced visibilities, heavy rain, and frequent lightning are all possible in the afternoon. Sub-VFR conditions continue into Wednesday morning depending on how slowly the front tracks offshore. Winds gust 15 to 25 knots out of the northwest. Prevailing VFR conditions are expected across terminals Thursday with 10-15 knot winds gusting up to 20 knots before diminishing overnight.

VFR conditions are expected on Friday. However, an upper-low to our northeast could bring some showers close to BWI/MTN. This is a very low likelihood scenario at this time, but can't completely rule it out. Either way, no significant reductions appear likely at this time.

Saturday and Sunday appear to be days with occasional showers possible, but VFR conditions otherwise.

MARINE
Winds increase through this morning with Small Craft Advisories in effect through tonight. Active convection will also make for hazardous conditions across the waterways with SMWs likely.
This may include strong winds, abrupt wind shifts, and frequent lightning. Winds shift to northwesterly overnight into Wednesday with SCA criteria winds likely throughout the day. Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through Friday morning.

Winds will drop below SCA criteria for Friday and continue for much of Saturday. However, as winds turn southerly late Saturday afternoon/evening, winds could approach SCA criteria as they channel up the Chesapeake Bay.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Southerly winds this morning combined with a full moon keep tidal anomalies elevated through midweek. Annapolis is forecast to reach minor flood stage during the high tide cycle this morning and again late tonight. Many tidal locations are forecast to reach action stage through Thursday morning before tidal anomalies slowly decrease.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through late tonight for MDZ006-008-011-014-506>508.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through late tonight for ANZ530.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>533-537>542.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ534-543.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535-536.