Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aquia Harbour, VA

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Daily precipitation chances today and tomorrow with a strong cold front yielding a chance at severe weather on Tuesday.

- 2) Drier conditions return mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Daily precipitation chances today and tomorrow with a strong cold front yielding a chance at severe weather on Tuesday.

As heat and humidity increases today and tomorrow, instability increases with daily shower and thunderstorm chances. Deep upper level troughing remains over the eastern CONUS through Tuesday. Increasing instability and shear will yield some convection capable of being stronger and more organized.
Therefore, SPC has portions of the forecast area in a marginal risk for severe weather today with the entire forecast area in a marginal risk for severe weather on Tuesday. Primary hazard type each day will be damaging wind gusts.

On Tuesday, while the deep upper level trough pivots east across the forecast area, a strong area of surface low pressure tracks from the Great Lakes region towards New England. The associated warm front lifts through the forecast area early Tuesday morning ahead of the potent cold front pushing through later Tuesday afternoon and into the evening. Despite morning rain showers with the warm front, guidance continues to show plenty of instability. Combined with ample shear, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected. Currently primary hazard type looks to be damaging wind gusts with heavy rainfall capable of Flash Flooding. SPC has the entire forecast area with the exception for western MD, in a slight risk for severe weather. The rest of the forecast area is in a marginal risk.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier conditions return mid to late week.

In the wake of Tuesday's frontal boundary, the associated low will slowly meander towards the northeast over the next couple of days.
This should reduce rain chances overall, but spotty showers & thunderstorms remain possible as this low slowly slides offshore of New England late in the week. High pressure moves in overhead towards the end of the week, bringing drier air and similar conditions overall as the week prior, with highs in the low-to-mid 80s.

Heading into next weekend, a broad area of low pressure begins to form over the Midwest and track eastward. As temperatures gradually rise towards more normal July averages, this could bring additional shower & thunderstorm chances to the region.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Daily shower and thunderstorm chances increase today and tomorrow with periods of sub-VFR conditions possible each afternoon.
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected today and tomorrow. A shower or thunderstorm is possible mainly Sunday evening and again Monday afternoon and evening, but confidence was too low for anything more than a PROB30 for possible -SHRA in the TAFs for now. Winds will generally vary between east and south the next couple days.

A strong frontal system brings showers and thunderstorms to the terminals on Tuesday. Sub-VFR conditions are expected both in the morning during rain showers and later in the afternoon as strong to severe thunderstorms track across the forecast area.
Strong wind gusts, low ceilings, reduced visibilities, heavy rain, and frequent lightning are all possible in the afternoon.

Sub-VFR conditions could persist into Wednesday depending on how slowly the front tracks offshore. Otherwise, prevailing VFR conditions are anticipated through the end of the week. Northwest winds could produce gusts up to 25 mph on Wednesday before diminishing some overnight.

MARINE
Light winds and primarily dry conditions are expected today. Winds shift from easterly today to southerly Monday, with southerly channeling yielding wind gusts approaching SCA criteria. Winds increase on Tuesday with SCAs likely. Active convection will also make for hazardous conditions across the waterways. This may include strong winds, abrupt wind shifts, and frequent lightning.

SCA conditions could persist through Thursday afternoon before winds diminish overall. Southwest winds shift northwest on Wednesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Southerly winds early next week combined with a full moon lead to gradually rising tidal anomalies. Annapolis will likely reach minor coastal flooding early Tuesday with other sensitive tidal locations rising into action stage.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.