Port Tobacco Village, MD Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Tobacco Village, MD

June 16, 2024 6:27 PM EDT (22:27 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:42 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM
Moonrise 2:29 PM   Moonset 1:09 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 539 Pm Edt Sun Jun 16 2024

.small craft advisory in effect until 2 am edt Monday - .

Tonight - S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Wed - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Thu - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Fri - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 539 Pm Edt Sun Jun 16 2024

Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure over new england will drift offshore through the week. A warm front over the tennessee river valley will lift northeastward across the mid-atlantic through Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters each afternoon and evening Tuesday through Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Tobacco Village, MD
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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 240 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

High pressure over New England will drift offshore through the week.
A warm front over the Tennessee River Valley will lift northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic through Monday, marking the beginning of a prolonged period of heat.

Looking at current conditions, the previous forecast is still playing out about as expected. Temperatures have generally risen into the mid 80s for most (upper 70s to low 80s in the mountains).
We will climb a few more degrees this afternoon before reaching our high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Dew points, while starting the day a bit higher, have quickly mixed out into the upper 50s to low 60s, so humidity levels, at least for today, are pretty reasonable for this time of year.

Big changes will start with tonight's weather as a warm front lifts through the region. This will usher in noticeably warmer and more humid conditions, owing to the ongoing southeasterly onshore flow. Expect low temperatures only to reach the mid to upper 60s tonight, perhaps even 70 near the waters.

For the start of the work week, a strong ridge aloft will become the main story for our region. The aforementioned warm front should be north of our region on Monday, resulting in noticeably warmer high temperatures as well as a more humid air mass as well.

Given the increase in heat and humidity, and prior to the ridge aloft and associated subsidence increasing heading into midweek, there may be enough of a window for scattered showers and thunderstorms west of the Blue Ridge Mountains as a lee trough develops thanks to differential heating affects of the higher terrain. Flow will be modest in the mid and upper levels and light in the low levels, so heavy downpours and localized gusty winds would be the main threats with any stronger storms. Model guidance seems to have a consensus of around 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE available in the aforementioned region.
The one caveat is the presence of mid-level westerlies, which could squash most activity that tries to develop. Given the increase in heat and humidity and slow/chaotic storm motions in the vicinity of the terrain, some isolated heavy rain totals can't be ruled out. Depending on mesoscale evolution, some cells could drift into the central Shenandoah Valley toward evening.
Otherwise, most of the time/area will be dry.

High temperatures tomorrow have decreased a bit in recent forecasts, with a noticeable trend of the worst of the heat being towards the end of the week. Latest forecast calls for highs in the low-mid 90s, with heat indices generally between 95-100 degrees. For folks west of the Blue Ridge however, we will have to see how thunderstorms may impact those highs.

There is some increasing threat for a thunderstorm threat again on Tuesday in the same area, but amidst the building ridge aloft, the thinking is that coverage should certainly be less than what we see Monday. However, temperatures will trend hotter Tuesday as highs are expected to reach the mid 90s.
Humidity may also be higher Tuesday, though guidance is still struggling with that aspect of the forecast.

In the short term, given the uncertainty, and the very threshold nature of this event with regards to local heat advisory criteria, have decided to hold off for now. Thinking the best chance early in the week may be Tuesday afternoon for areas west of the Blue Ridge, where criteria is 100F heat index. Areas further east though, where criteria is 105F heat index, we may not quite reach that.

It is important to note however that this level of heat is still dangerous and should not be taken lightly. This will be an extended period of very warm temperatures, likely peaking towards the end of this week into this weekend. We encourage all to follow all heat precautions in the coming week. Stay cool, stay hydrated, and take plenty of breaks if you must work outdoors.

A broad upper level ridge will remain in place over our region with high pressure over much of the mid-Atlantic through the end of this week. An extended period of 90 degree plus temperatures is likely to continue through Saturday with potential for near record temperatures possible. The early season nature of this extended period of 90 degree plus weather combined with increasing heat indices that could peak between 100 and 105 will likely necessitate the need for some heat headlines by the end of this week into the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are not expected at this time Wednesday into Thursday as the ridge should keep convection to the north over PA. Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly possible late Friday and through the weekend.

VFR conditions are likely at the terminals through the next several days. Though an isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out over Monday or Tuesday afternoon at MRB. Not seeing a chance for that activity to make it east at this time. Winds during this period will generally be out of the S/SE at around 8 to 12 knots during the afternoons with occasional gusts to around 18 knots.
At night, winds will be below 5 knots, and variable in direction at times, though generally remaining S/SE.

VFR conditions are likely Wednesday through Saturday with winds generally out of the south.

Winds are generally going to be out of the south through the middle of the week. The pattern will be very similar each day, with stronger winds picking up each afternoon/evening in southerly channeling. Thinking that SCAs will be needed most afternoons during this timeframe over the Chesapeake Bay zones.

A persistent southerly flow will lead to increased anomalies and some elevated tidal cycles. A few tidal sites will reach action stage with near minor tidal flooding possible.

While hot temperatures are expected much of this coming week and especially this coming weekend, trends have been down early in the week overall. We could see a few records broken on Tuesday, but the hottest days appear to be Friday and Saturday, where several records come be in jeopardy. Below is a list of record high temperatures for June 18th, 21st, and 22nd, the year the record was set, and the current forecast high temperatures for those days. RERs are currently only issued for DCA, IAD, BWI, and MRB, but other sites are shown for reference.

Tuesday Jun 18th Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 97F (1944) 94F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 94F (2018+) 94F Baltimore (BWI) 97F (1957+) 92F Martinsburg (MRB) 99F (1943) 93F Charlottesville (CHO) 96F (2014+) 93F Annapolis (NAK) 96F (1957) 87F Hagerstown (HGR) 95F (1957) 95F

Friday Jun 21st Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 99F (2012) 98F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 98F (1988) 98F Baltimore (BWI) 100F (2012+) 96F Martinsburg (MRB) 102F (1931) 95F Charlottesville (CHO) 99F (1933) 97F Annapolis (NAK) 100F (1988) 91F Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1923) 97F

Saturday Jun 22nd Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 101F (1988) 100F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 99F (1988) 100F Baltimore (BWI) 100F (1988) 98F Martinsburg (MRB) 102F (1933) 97F Charlottesville (CHO) 101F (1933) 99F Annapolis (NAK) 101F (1988) 94F Hagerstown (HGR) 100F (1988) 99F

+ indicates that value has been reached on multiple years, with the year displayed being the most recent.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ531>534-537- 540-541-543.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ531>534-537-540-541-543.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
NCDV2 9 mi57 minESE 12G13 81°F 83°F30.13
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 30 mi57 minS 8G11 84°F 80°F30.13
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi57 minSE 6 84°F 30.1564°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi57 minSE 12G15 79°F 79°F30.16
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 37 mi57 minSSE 16G17
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi45 minSSE 14G18 75°F 77°F1 ft
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 39 mi57 minSSE 13G15 78°F 30.17
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi57 minSE 13G15 80°F 81°F30.17
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 48 mi27 minSSE 11G12 78°F 30.18

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KNYG QUANTICO MCAF /TURNER FIELD,VA 11 sm31 minSE 113 smClear84°F64°F52%30.14
KDAA DAVISON AAF,VA 19 sm32 minSE 0610 smClear86°F61°F43%30.11
KRMN STAFFORD RGNL,VA 19 sm12 minE 0610 smOvercast84°F57°F40%30.14
KEZF SHANNON,VA 22 sm12 minS 0510 smPartly Cloudy86°F57°F38%30.12
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Wind History graph: NYG
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Tide / Current for Goose Bay, Port Tobacco River, Potomac River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Goose Bay, Port Tobacco River, Potomac River, Maryland, Tide feet

Tide / Current for Maryland Point Light, Potomac River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Maryland Point Light, Potomac River, Maryland, Tide feet

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic   

Sterling, VA,

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