Monday, November23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Tobacco Village, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 4:52PM Monday November 23, 2020 2:32 PM EST (19:32 UTC) Moonrise 1:56PMMoonset 12:25AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1243 Pm Est Mon Nov 23 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm est this evening...
This afternoon..NW winds 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1243 Pm Est Mon Nov 23 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Canadian high pressure will return this afternoon through Tuesday. The next area of low pressure will track into the great lakes late Wednesday into thanksgiving day, ushering in another cold front through the waters. A small craft advisory may be required for portions of the waters Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Tobacco Village, MD
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location: 38.44, -77.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 231528 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1028 AM EST Mon Nov 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. A strong cold front will press through the area early this morning, leaving blustery conditions in its wake as Canadian high pressure builds into the region through Tuesday night. An area of low pressure will then track to our northwest late Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day, ushering another cold front across the Mid-Atlantic. High pressure returns Friday through Saturday, with the potential of another low pressure system impacting the region the latter half of the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A cold front has progressed through the area this morning. Gusty northwesterly winds have moved in behind the front, with gusts in the 30-40 mph range observed so far this morning. Gusts to around 25-35 mph will remain possible through the remainder of the morning, with winds weakening slightly through the afternoon.

Upslope snow showers are ongoing along the Allegheny Front this morning, and will continue through the early afternoon hours before tapering off moving into the evening hours. Minor accumulations of less than an inch will be possible in those areas, primarily on grassy surfaces. Elsewhere, conditions are dry. A mix of sun and clouds is in place to the west of the Blue Ridge, with mostly sunny skies to the east of the Blue Ridge. This should continue to remain the case through the remainder of the day.

Canadian high pressure over the High Plains this morning will build eastward today, centering itself across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight. This will maintain a northwesterly breeze over our area but the gradient will loosen its grip this evening and overnight. With mostly clear skies in place and 850 temps dropping below 0C with continued CAA, lows tonight will fall into the 20s to near 30 degrees across the western half of the CWA, with low to middle 30s expected to the east.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. A brief stretch of quieter weather is on tap Tuesday through the first half of Wednesday as the aforementioned high remains in control, resulting in dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Highs Tuesday will remain in the 40s to near 50 degrees, warming into the upper 40s to upper 50s Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be milder with 30s area wide.

The high will slip off the coast Tuesday night into early Wednesday, allowing surface winds to turn southerly as mid to upper level clouds increase thanks to WAA aloft. During the day Wednesday, low pressure will track eastward from the central U.S. into the Great Lakes by Wednesday evening, while its associated cold front will nears the TN/OH Valley's. Guidance in fair agreement of keeping much of the CWA dry during the day on Wednesday, with the exception being along the Allegheny Front, where low end chance of showers exists during the late afternoon hours.

The surface low will push toward the eastern Great Lakes overnight Wednesday as the cold front comes knocking on our backdoor by Thanksgiving morning. As a result, am advertising likely rain chances for a bulk of the CWA Wednesday night. Cloudy skies and elevated rain chances will keep low temperatures in the 40s to near 50 degrees.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Guidance trend has slowed the departure of the system on Thanksgiving, with showers more likely to linger at least during the first half of the day. Most guidance dries things out by afternoon, and with any sun and a Pacific air mass, highs in the 60s look likely.

The balance of the holiday weekend then turns dry with weak high pressure building across the region. Temperatures will average near to a bit above normal through the period. Warmest day looks like Thursday, with a slow cooling trend into Saturday as a weak, mostly dry cold front passes.

Long range guidance into early next week depicts a strong low pressure developing to our southwest. This system could bring heavier rains and gusty winds Sunday night and Monday, but at this juncture, the fate of this system remains highly uncertain, with a long span of potential tracks and associated conditions. It is mentioned here mainly because of the growing number of models which show a strong low pressure, but still differ in its ultimate fate.

AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the day. The main issue today will be winds. Northwesterly winds may gust to around 30 knots at times through the mid- afternoon hours, before gradually tapering off during the evening hours.

High pressure will build back toward the region tonight through Tuesday night, delivering lighter northerly breezes and VFR conditions. The high slips off the coast early Wednesday, allowing winds to turn southerly and increase Wednesday afternoon, gusting 15 to 20 knots at times. Low pressure and its associated cold front will approach to the west Wednesday night, yielding increasing rain chances and the likelihood of MVFR to IFR VIS/CIGs.

Sub-VFR conditions early Thanksgiving likely improve later in the day and remain VFR Friday.

MARINE. High end SCA winds are ongoing over the waters currently in the wake of a cold frontal passage this morning. These northwesterly winds will persist through the afternoon hours, while very slowly decreasing in magnitude.

High pressure to the northwest will build toward the region tonight, with the gradient relaxing a touch, however gusts will remain elevated over the waters given cold air advection. As a result, an SCA will continue overnight and early Tuesday morning across the main stem of the Chesapeake Bay and its eastern tributaries, as well as the lower tidal Potomac waters. The high settles overhead Tuesday, thus winds will relax further with sub SCA conditions prevailing through Tuesday night.

The high will shift off the coast late Tuesday night into early Wednesday, allowing for southerly breezes to increase during the day Wednesday. This could result in a period of SCA conditions over portions of the waters Wednesday afternoon, potentially lingering through the overnight hours Wednesday.

Winds likely become sub-SCA early Thursday as a low pressure system crosses the region with weak gradients. Winds likely remain sub-SCA Friday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ531>534-537- 539>541-543. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ530- 535-536-538-542.

SYNOPSIS . BKF NEAR TERM . BKF/KJP SHORT TERM . BKF LONG TERM . RCM AVIATION . BKF/RCM/KJP MARINE . BKF/RCM/KJP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 9 mi45 min NW 14 G 21 53°F 55°F1019.1 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 30 mi45 min NW 19 G 28 52°F 50°F1019.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi63 min NW 9.9 1018 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi45 min NW 12 G 18 52°F 58°F1018.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 37 mi45 min NW 26 G 30
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi39 min NW 21 G 27 53°F 56°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 39 mi69 min NW 21 G 27 51°F 1018.4 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi45 min NW 20 G 30 52°F 54°F1018.8 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 48 mi33 min WNW 27 G 33 51°F 54°F1019.2 hPa (-1.3)28°F

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA11 mi37 minNW 11 G 2110.00 miPartly Cloudy55°F28°F36%1021 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA19 mi38 minNNW 14 G 2210.00 miPartly Cloudy52°F16°F24%1022 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA20 mi37 minWNW 12 G 2410.00 miA Few Clouds52°F27°F38%1020.6 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA22 mi38 minNNW 16 G 2310.00 miPartly Cloudy54°F31°F42%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNYG

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9E5NE3SE6SE5CalmCalmCalmS7S8S6S6S6S6NW8NW6NW21
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE4N4CalmNE3NE8NE7NE8NE7NE5E5NE4NE4CalmNE4SE4SE9
2 days agoS4SW3S6S6S4SW3W3CalmW5NW4CalmW4W5W5W4W5W5W3CalmCalmS3SE3CalmS4

Tide / Current Tables for Goose Bay, Port Tobacco River, Potomac River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Maryland Point Light, Potomac River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.