Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Tobacco Village, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:49PM Sunday December 8, 2019 1:52 PM EST (18:52 UTC) Moonrise 2:53PMMoonset 3:24AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1238 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
This afternoon..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain or drizzle likely.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain or drizzle likely.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1238 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will develop over the central united states and lift into the great lakes through Monday. A warm front developing east of this area of low pressure over the carolinas is expected to lift northward across the mid-atlantic during this time. The aforementioned low will drag its trailing cold front through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Monday night through Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Tobacco Village, MD
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location: 38.44, -77.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 081504 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1004 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will shift offshore of New Jersey today. Low pressure will develop over the central United States and lift into the Great Lakes through Monday. A warm front developing east of this area of low pressure over the Carolinas is expected to lift northward across the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. The aforementioned low will drag its trailing cold front through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong Arctic high pressure will build from the Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday night through Friday, then shift offshore of New England through Saturday as low pressure develops over the southeastern United States.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Already some high cirrus streaming into the area, but it's very thin as of late this morning. Clouds will gradually thicken and lower, becoming partly to mostly cloudy by sunset as clouds and moisture continue to advect in both from the southeast and the west. Other than a couple very minor tweaks to match the latest temperature/satellite obs and trends, and adjusting winds up slightly for a few hours early this afternoon, forecast remains on track.

High pressure will be moving offshore today from the southern New England coast. During this time a low pressure system will be moving across the Great Plains ahead of a mid/upper level trough. Southerly flow will be settling over our area today allowing for warm and moist air advection. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s over most of our area.

Clouds will thicken into Sunday night as a warm front stretching across the Carolinas lifts north and into our region tonight. Also, the low pressure system over the Great Plains will be moving NE towards the Great Lakes. Warm and moist air advection ahead of this system and the warm front to our south will bring rain and/or drizzle late tonight beginning over the southern and western sections of our CWA . mainly southern Maryland and regions west of the Blue Ridge.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Deepening low pressure system will be approaching and moving through the Great Lakes Monday into Monday night as its associated cold front approaches from the west. Isentropic lift and mid to upper level jet dynamics will bring rain into our region early on Monday, with the more widespread rain during the day. Then, rain showers will continue into Monday night. PoPs will be higher over the NE section of our CWA during this time. PWAT values will be between an inch to 1.25".

Chance of rain showers continue Tuesday ahead of the cold front, which will be moving across our area through the day. Guidance is in agreement that precipitation will continue over our area after fropa and remaining into Tuesday night. A changeover from rain to snow is possible over areas near and west of I-95 with NW flow and cold air advection. Confidence is not very high but some ensemble members are hinting this mainly at higher elevations.

Warm air advection will allow temperatures to become above normal Monday into Tuesday. High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s on Monday night, and much cooler behind the front on Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Active weather will be pulling away from the region early Wednesday as a frontal system pushes east off the coast. Some rain or mixed precipitation may linger early, though models continue to differ on timing of the end of precip and arrival of temperatures cold enough to support snow. Thus, confidence in any snow remains quite low. Otherwise, much colder air will rush across the region Wednesday, with temperatures remaining fairly steady in the 30s and 40s before falling into the 20s Wednesday night as Canadian high pressure builds overhead.

The frontal boundary will not get far to our south, so while Thursday is most likely to be cold but dry, we will need to watch waves of low pressure pushing northeastward along the Carolina coast.

By Friday, the odds of a wave lifting northward into the area increase, so have included chance pops with mixed precip across the region. Odds are not high, but guidance has become increasingly inconsistent.

Saturday is more likely to be an active day as most guidance supports another wave of low pressure rising northeastward across the region. Temperatures are more likely to moderate, so at least near I-95, rain is more likely. However, further inland, mixed precip will remain possible due to cold air damming.

AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. VFR conditions are expected to continue through this evening with high pressure in control. Periods of sub-VFR conditions possible late tonight into Tuesday night with rain and/or rain showers moving over the terminals associated to a low pressure system and its cold front that will approach and move across our area during this time.

Sub-VFR conditions may linger early Wednesday as a cold front slides off the coast and rain potentially ends as a little snow. Dry and VFR conditions should prevail Wednesday night and Thursday.

MARINE. Winds will remain below criteria through tonight as high pressure remains in control. A warm front will moves across the waters on Monday. Winds will increase just off the surface, but a low-level temperature inversion may keep these winds from reaching the surface much of the day. Winds will increase further Monday night as a cold front approaches from the west, and likely remain above SCA criteria through Tuesday night.

Small Craft Advisories are likely Wednesday in NW flow behind the front, with odds diminishing Thursday as high pressure builds overhead.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . RCM NEAR TERM . IMR/DHOF SHORT TERM . IMR LONG TERM . RCM AVIATION . IMR/RCM/DHOF MARINE . IMR/RCM/DHOF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 9 mi58 min E 5.1 G 6 43°F 47°F1030.4 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 30 mi58 min S 6 G 8 43°F 44°F1031.3 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi142 min S 1.9 43°F 1032 hPa29°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi58 min SE 8.9 G 12 44°F 47°F1031 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 37 mi58 min SE 8.9 G 12
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi46 min SSE 9.7 G 12 44°F 1032.2 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi58 min ESE 8 G 9.9 45°F 44°F1031 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 48 mi52 min S 8 G 8.9 42°F 45°F1032.4 hPa (-2.3)30°F

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA11 mi56 minSSE 310.00 miA Few Clouds43°F0°F%1031.8 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA19 mi57 minS 310.00 miFair46°F30°F55%1032.2 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA20 mi56 minS 710.00 miFair46°F29°F51%1031.5 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA22 mi57 minSSE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy47°F33°F61%1030.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNYG

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8NE33NW4N6N4NW3W3W5W6W7W7W8W7W9W6W7W7W5W5CalmCalmS5S3
1 day agoS7S6SW7SW4SW5W5NW4CalmCalm5N14
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N12N10NW7NW3NW4N6N6NE4N6NW9
2 days agoNW15
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NW11NW7NW3NW3NW3W6W5W7NW4W6W5W5W4S5W3W4W4S9S6S9S5S6

Tide / Current Tables for Goose Bay, Port Tobacco River, Potomac River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Maryland Point Light, Potomac River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.