Saturday, January25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Taylors Island, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:18PM Saturday January 25, 2020 4:09 AM EST (09:09 UTC) Moonrise 7:58AMMoonset 6:06PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 337 Am Est Sat Jan 25 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am est this morning...
Rest of the overnight..SE winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 3 ft...subsiding to 1 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 337 Am Est Sat Jan 25 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A low pressure system will move across the waters today. Northwest flow ahead of weak high pressure will build behind this system. Small craft advisories may be required Monday night into Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Taylors Island, MD
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location: 38.47, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 250854 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 354 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

SYNOPSIS. Cold front crosses the region this morning. High pressure builds in for the end of the weekend. A weak disturbance tracks across the area on Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 300 AM EST Saturday .

This morning there is a closed upper low over the OH valley which is expected to drift towards the great lakes region throughout the day. At the surface, latest analysis shows a surface low just west of Richmond, and a cold front extending southward through South Central VA and central NC. Rain showers along and ahead of the front will continue to progress from west to east during the morning as the low progresses NE towards the Mid-Atlantic coast and drags the cold front across the area. Precip timing is 06-11Z for the Richmond area, 09-15Z for the VA peninsula, Tidewater, and NE NC, and 10-17Z for the MD and VA eastern shore. Precip amounts generally 0.5-1.0 inch with locally higher amounts. Left slight chance thunder in across NE NC where instability is a tad higher, although convection has remained shallow so the chances of thunder remain low. Winds ahead of the front this morning are SE 10-15 mph with gusts around 25 mph.

Cold front will cross the area later this morning bringing an end to the rain from west to east. Some residual low level moisture will remain over the northern peninsula and eastern shore, so a few light showers are possible in those locations through the afternoon until the trough axis crosses the area later today. Winds behind the front will be W/SW 10-15 mph. Despite the frontal passage, temps will remain warm today with high temps in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 300 AM EST Saturday .

High pressure to our SW builds in late Saturday night through Sunday. Cooler air filters in from the west but temps will only fall to around seasonal norms. Low temps Sunday morning in the 30s and high temps upper 40s to lower 50s.

A weak disturbance will pass just to our south on Monday. There is some uncertainty about how far north the precip reaches. Have slight chance to chance pops over the southern half of the forecast area. Models are in fairly good agreement that QPF amounts will be light, a few hundredths at best. Temps on Monday will again be around seasonal norms, with lows in the 30s and highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 330 PM EST Friday .

A weak shortwave moves through the southern portion of the CWA late Monday night into early Tuesday bringing with it a slight chance of a few scattered rain showers before sunrise. High pressure moves in Tuesday and persists into Wednesday evening. A coastal low moves NE off the Carolina coastline well offshore on Thursday. There is high uncertainty with this system as to whether or not it will be close enough to produce precipitation for the CWA. The Euro is the least aggressive, the GFS the most, and the CMC a mixture of the two. As such have kept PoPs at 10-25%. High pressure once again moves into the region Friday and will persist until early Saturday.

Temperatures will be near seasonal through the period. Lows Tuesday- Friday morning will range from the upper 20s in the NW to the low- mid 30s in the SE. Lows on Saturday morning will be slightly warmer with low 30s in the NW and low 40s in the SE. Highs will range from the mid-upper 40s Tuesday and Thursday, low-mid 40s on Wednesday (with the Ern Shore being the coldest in the low 40s), and from the upper 40s in the NW to lower 50s in the SE Friday.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 1215 AM EST Saturday .

VFR to begin the period however conditions will deteriorate as the line of showers moves across the area this morning. Ceilings will drop to MVFR and at times IFR during periods of heavy rain. Visibilities are likely to drop to MVFR with a low chance of brief IFR. Winds pre-frontal are S/SE 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts. Timing of the SHRAs looks to be from 06-11z at RIC, 09-14z at PHF/ORF/ECG, and 11-15z at SBY.

Conditions improve behind the cold frontal passage this morning. Winds will become W/SW 5-10 kts for the remainder of the TAF period. Small chance of a shower at SBY Saturday afternoon, but for now left any mention out of the TAF. High pressure builds in from Saturday night through Sunday, with mainly VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites.

MARINE. As of 340 AM EST Saturday .

Low pressure is currently moving through south central VA and will move E/NE into Chesapeake Bay through late this morning, and off the Delmarva this aftn. Seas have risen to 5-7 ft on the coastal waters and avg 2-3 ft in the Bay and 1-2 ft in the Rivers early this morning. SCA headlines remain unchanged for this forecast package, though with the area of showers and stronger winds currently moving into the waters, we may be able to drop some of the headlines early (by 7am) for the lower James River.

The cold front associated with the low pressure system will be in a weakened state as it crosses the area waters later this morning with little in the way of cold air and really more of a moisture boundary with drier air moving in from the W this aftn. Thus, the westerly flow this aftn and tonight will be only about 10-15 kt. The only SCA headlines that are expected to linger overnight and into Sun AM will be for lingering seas of 5-8 ft on the coastal waters due to swell and dominant periods of 9-12 sec. Sub-SCA conditions are expected all areas by Sun aftn. W winds will continue to be in the 5-15 kt range Sun-Mon as sfc low pressure lingers well to our N/NE. Some increase in winds is expected Mon night as marginally colder air moves S. For now have kept conditions just below SCA criteria.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>633-638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ656-658.

SYNOPSIS . CMF/ERI NEAR TERM . CMF SHORT TERM . CMF LONG TERM . RMM AVIATION . CMF MARINE . LKB/RHR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 12 mi58 min E 16 G 19 49°F 40°F1013 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 15 mi52 min ESE 9.9 G 11 48°F 42°F1012.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi58 min ESE 13 G 16 49°F 40°F1012.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 28 mi52 min SSE 8 G 11
44042 - Potomac, MD 31 mi34 min E 9.7 G 12 45°F 42°F1012.4 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi70 min ENE 16 G 17 46°F 40°F1014.1 hPa (-3.7)46°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi100 min ESE 5.1 1013 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 35 mi58 min ESE 12 G 13 46°F 40°F1012.4 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi52 min 46°F 1013 hPa
CPVM2 37 mi58 min 46°F
NCDV2 43 mi58 min SE 12 G 14 46°F 43°F1011.1 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 49 mi52 min ENE 5.1 G 8 48°F 40°F1013.1 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD13 mi25 minESE 10 G 178.00 miOvercast54°F51°F94%1013.2 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD15 mi18 minSE 64.00 miRain Fog/Mist48°F48°F100%1012 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD19 mi23 minE 6 miOvercast50°F46°F88%1012.9 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD24 mi17 minE 11 G 184.00 miRain54°F48°F83%1011.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGE

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5NE45N3CalmNE4E9E8E10
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmN4N5N6N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmN4N4N5
2 days agoN5N5N6N5N5N6N7N6N5NW7N4N6NW5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Smithville Road Bridge, Beaverdam Creek, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:41 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:06 AM EST     0.38 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:04 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:03 AM EST     -0.42 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:28 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:53 PM EST     0.76 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:07 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:29 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:56 PM EST     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.20.10.30.40.30.20-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.10.20.50.70.80.70.40.2-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.