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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 633 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.gale warning in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Today..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 4 ft. Snow with a chance of rain this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt... Diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 kt...becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 633 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
high pressure will build in through Tuesday. A weak cold front will track through Wednesday morning. High pressure will return for Thursday into Friday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 111139 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 639 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will be centered over the region for most of this week, bringing dry conditions and seasonal temperatures.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 645 AM EST Monday...

Cold front is well off the coast with much colder air in place.
Temperatures are about 20-30 degrees F colder than yesterday morning. Most of the snow has come to an end, but there may be a few flurries across the peninsulas through sunrise. Light rain will continue for the Eastern Shore through 10 AM this morning, not expecting snow east of the bay. Most area from the Richmond metro north and northeast received a coating of snow to around 1 inch. Temperatures remain near or just above freeze, therefore, not expecting impacts to the roads. Most of the snow left on the ground will likely melt later this morning.
Temperatures will be seasonal today with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 500 AM EST Monday...

High pressure will remain centered over the region with a zonal flow aloft, bringing clear and dry conditions. Temperatures will remain seasonal through much of this week. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, and low temperatures will in the 20s and lower 30s. A secondary, and a much stronger (~1042 mb), sfc high pressure will build into region as a trough off the Northeast U.S. coast deepens.
Temperatures will remain similar and dry weather continues.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 200 AM EST Monday...

High pressure dominates the local weather through Sat with dry conditions expected. The GFS shows a coastal low impacting the area Sun into Mon while the ECMWF is dry with the low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. Given low confidence, have stuck with NBM PoPs which show PoPs increasing Sun into Mon. Otherwise, a cold front moves through Wed into Wed night with colder weather on Thu with highs in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 50s Fri, lower 50s NW to upper 50s SE Sat, and mid 50s NW to lower 60s SE Sun.
Lows in the low-mid 20s inland with low-mid 30s along the coast Wed night, lower 20s inland with lower 30s along the coast Thu night (some isolated upper teens possible), upper 20s inland to mid 30s along the coast Fri night, lower 30s inland to upper 30s to around 40F along the coast Sat night, and upper 30s NW to lower 40s SE Sun night.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1245 AM EST Monday...

A mix of MVFR and IFR conditions will persist through the rest of the night, then conditions improve later this morning.
Rounds of rain will continue through the rest of the night behind a strong cold front. Occasional drops in VIS will be likely in any steadier rain. Winds behind the front are out of the NW and at 15-25kt with gusts up to 25-30+ kt. The highest speeds will be likely at ORF and along the coast. LLWS is expected as well into early tonight at ECG. As the storm system moves away from the local area late into early Mon morning, rain may mix with or change to all snow across the Piedmont, with a rain/snow mix possible at RIC (10-12z but maybe as early as 9z).
Rain/snow tapers off by 13z with clearing expected today. NW winds will gradually subside through the day.

Looking ahead: Primarily VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the week as high pressure dominates the local weather.

MARINE
As of 310 AM EST Monday...

The surface cold front has cleared the local waters early this morning. Winds have turned NW ~30 kt with gusts around 40 kt behind the boundary. Waves in the bay are 3-6 ft with seas offshore 6-9 ft.

NW winds 25-35 kt with gusts to 40-45 kt will continue for a few more hours, especially near and south of the mouth of the Ches Bay.
Winds slowly decrease through the morning with Gale Warnings coming to an end by this afternoon. Will need to issue SCA headlines for late morning into the afternoon/evening as winds average 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Winds fall below SCA thresholds in the bay by early tonight but 5+ ft seas will linger offshore into Tuesday morning. High pressure builds into the region today and lingers into mid week before another stronger (~1040mb) high moves in behind a dry frontal passage. Winds will increase behind this front with a period of SCA conditions possible Wednesday night. Seas could rise above 5 ft for the southern Atlantic waters during this timeframe as well. High pressure lingers through the end of the week with models disagreeing substantially regarding the potential for another area of low pressure this weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630-631-650- 652-654-656.
Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ632>634-638- 658.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ635>637.

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Smithville Road Bridge, Beaverdam Creek, Maryland, Tide feet

Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
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Mon -- 01:22 AM EST     0.22 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:43 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:53 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:03 AM EST     -0.36 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:30 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:13 PM EST     0.85 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:29 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:02 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:33 PM EST     -0.74 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current, knots

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