Tuesday, November12, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Taylors Island, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 4:54PM Tuesday November 12, 2019 3:36 AM EST (08:36 UTC) Moonrise 5:20PMMoonset 6:33AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 1238 Am Est Tue Nov 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Overnight..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 3 ft. Rain with a chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of rain through the day.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 3 ft.
ANZ500 1238 Am Est Tue Nov 12 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure is expected to track northeastward into new england tonight through Tuesday, bringing an associated cold front across the mid-atlantic by Tuesday evening. Arctic high pressure will follow Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front will likely move from the midwest to off the east coast Thursday into Friday. Small craft advisories may need to be extended into Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Taylors Island, MD
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location: 38.47, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 120601
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
101 am est Tue nov 12 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure intensifies while moving off the new england
coast Tuesday pushing a strong cold front across the local area
in the afternoon. Cold high pressure builds in from the west on
through midweek.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 835 pm est Monday...

still pleasant for early nov... Though won't last too much
longer. Lo pres tracking through WRN pa ATTM W a strong arctic
cold approaching the mtns. Mainly sct-bkn high clouds ATTM will
be gradually thickening lowering overnight. Isold shras are
expected to take a run at WRN portions (well) after midnight
while the main area of ra crosses the mtns. Lows from the m-u40s
w of I 95 to the l50s at the coast.

Short term 6 am this morning through Thursday night
As of 255 pm est Monday...

forecast remains on track for the arctic front and strong post-
frontal cold air advection. The aforementioned anomalously
strong upper trough will continue to amplify over the great
lakes into the mid-south as it slowly moves east through
midweek. The strong cold front looks to cross through the area
from NW to SE during the first part of the day (12-18z) on
Tuesday, with winds quickly becoming gusty Tuesday aftn and
evening (gusts to 30 mph inland, 35-40 mph along the coast).

The main shortwave energy will remain near the base of the
trough by aftn, tracking from the eastern great lakes to western
new england late Tue Tue night. At the same time, the
associated surface low deepens as it tracks from new england to
new brunswick nova scotia.

Temps pop timing:
high temperatures will likely occur near or
just after sunrise Tue morning just before the fropa, with
temperatures to drop thereafter into the upper 30s-mid 40s from
nw to SE just a few hours after the fropa. The post-frontal band
of pcpn is progged to track east-southeast from mid-morning
through early evening on tue. Model consensus is largely
unchanged... From 12-18z 7a- 1p for NW zones, 14-20z 9a- 3p over
central va, and 18-00z 1p- 7p from hampton roads to NE nc.

P-type issues and qpf:
12z 11 models continue to show the upper trough taking on a
neutral negative tilt by Tue aftn, forcing a narrow band of rain
across the area. In addition, nearly all of the models agree
that some additional shortwave energy will track through the
area before the trough axis crosses the CWA late Tue evening.

All models are depicting strong forcing for ascent Tuesday
morning, with model QPF forecasts now showing 0.4-0.6" of
rainfall Tuesday through early Tue night. Given this timing,
once again, concern exists for a brief period of snow mixing in
with rain before precipitation ends.

Overall, only brief p-type issues are anticipated, with the
cold air likely to be chasing the departing moisture. 12z 11
gefs geps probabilities of 1" snow from 12z tue-12z Wed have
decreased from the 00z run. However, bufr profiles still do
support snow mixing in with rain before rain tapers off from
nw>se tomorrow mid to late aftn.

We are still carrying no accumulation of snow in the forecast,
but could certainly see a few tenths of an inch on grassy elevated
surfaces if the snow comes down hard enough for an hour or two.

This matches up well with latest wpc probabilities (the 90th
percentile of wpc snowfall forecast is showing a few tenths of
an inch of snow centered along and just east of i-95, while the
50th percentile shows a tenth or two at best of accumulation).

Still not expecting any road travel impacts even in the scenario
painted by the 90th percentile solution.

Tuesday night...

all of the pcpn will be offshore Tuesday night and the sky will
begin to clear in most areas, which will allow for temperatures
to plummet Tuesday night. Still will likely be mostly cloudy in
areas downstream of the ches bay ocean... Due to bay ocean
effect clouds. Cannot rule out a bay effect snow shower or two
across the va ERN shore, norfolk, or va beach late Tue night-wed
am, and with href cams beginning to catch on a bit more with
this idea, did include a slight chance for some snow showers
late Tue night into Wed morning over ERN tidewater (orf and e).

Coldest night of the season to date is expected Wed morning,
with early morning low temperatures Wednesday morning to range
from the upper teens to low 20s in most areas well west of the
chesapeake bay (mid 20s for the urban areas of the city of
richmond). Lows across coastal SE va NE nc will be in the upper
20s-low 30s, due to strong n-nnw winds off the ches bay (in
addition to the potential for bay effect clouds). Have raised a
freeze watch for Tuesday night over the last few counties left
active in the frost freeze program... With a strong likelihood
that program ends with a hard freeze all zones. Possible we will
remain mixed enough along the immediate coast to be close, but
certainly enough confidence for a freeze watch attm.

Wed-fri...

Wednesday will be cold following the cold front. High
temperatures will range from the 37-42 across the entire area.

These maximum temperatures will threaten record low max
temperatures for Wednesday, nov 13 (see climate section below).

With high pressure becoming centered near just N of the area wed
night, lows will range from the low-mid 20s inland to the upper
20s-low 30s along the immediate coast of SE va NE nc.

The upper level trough ejects northeast, allowing a more
downslope flow aloft over the area on Thursday. Meanwhile, a
shortwave in the northern stream flow will dig across the
northern and central plains, eventually digging another east
coast trough by Friday. Temps moderate a bit on downslope flow,
but will remain chilly... With lows mainly in the 40s to near
50f inland... Mid to upper 50s along the SE coast.

Ecmwf is a bit stronger with the SE trough (per its bias), with
the cmc offshore and the GFS in between. 12z GEFS has trended
closer to the coast, so have trended forecast slightly toward
the wetter ECMWF solution, upping pops into the high-end chance
range.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 355 pm est Monday...

the 12z 11 ECMWF and 12z 11 GFS have come closer together in the
extended period, but at this time, will lean toward the ecmwf
for Fri night through mon. The center of high pressure will
build from the NRN great lakes eastward to east of the canadian
maritimes Fri night into Sun night. Meanwhile, low pressure will
sit just off the SE coast Fri night into sun, then lifts nne off
the mid atlc coast Sun night through mon. This scenario will
result in dry wx for most of the CWA Fri night into Sun morning,
then at least slight chc chc for rain for all areas later sun
through mon.

As for temps, highs will range from the mid 40s to lower 50s
sat, in the upper 40s to upper 50s sun, and ranging through the
50s to near 60 mon. Lows will range from near 30 lower 30s wnw,
to the lower 40s SE Fri night, in the upper 20s lower 30s wnw,
to the lower to mid 40s SE Sat night, and mainly ranging from
the upper 30s wnw, to the upper 40s SE va NE nc Sun night.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 100 am est Tuesday...

low pressure is centered over central pa as of 06z, with a cold
front trailing to the SW through the appalachians. Meanwhile,
high pressure is centered well off the southeast coast.VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through 12z under high
clouds, with 5-10kft CIGS approaching ric 10-12z. The wind will
be ssw 10-15kt through 12z. The cold front will sweep across the
region 12-18z today. The wind will shift to nnw behind the front
with with gusts to 20-25kt (potentially up to 30kt at the
coast). CIGS are expected to drop quickly behind the front, with
ifr MVFR conditions expected for a 3-6hr period behind the
front. Rain will develop behind the front, with vsby potentially
falling to 2-4sm. A brief changeover to sn is possible between
18-22z, before pcpn ends, with the best potential at ric sby.

Clouds clear quickly tonight at most sites. However, a bay
streamer could result in clouds persisting at orf.

Vfr conditions return Wednesday into Thursday. Low pressure
pushes off the southeast coast Friday Saturday bringing the
potential for rain and degraded flight conditions.

Marine
As of 325 pm est Monday...

high pressure continues to migrate offshore this afternoon as 1012mb
low pressure over southern ohio approaches the area. Southwesterly
winds are generally 10-15 knots over the marine zones this
afternoon. Waves are running 1-2 ft with 2-3 ft seas offshore.

Pressure gradient tightens late this afternoon across the ches bay
and offshore zones with 15-20 knots becoming prevalent near or just
after sunset and 15-25 knots overnight. As such, have SCA headlines
for the northern bay beginning late this afternoon and for the
remainder of the bay and lower james river after 00z (7pm) this
evening. Seas build to 4-6 ft (highest out near 20nmi) this evening
for the offshore zones north CAPE charles light where SCA headlines
are in effect through mid morning.

A strong cold front associated with the aforementioned area of low
pressure will cross the region on Tuesday from NW to SE through the
morning hours into the early afternoon. Strong cold advection behind
the boundary combined with relatively warm bay and near-shore waters
will lead to deep mixing and SCA conditions across the bay,
currituck sound, and the upper james, rappahannock, and york rivers.

Opted to extend the SCA headlines for the bay and lower james river
to cover prefrontal SW flow and post-frontal NW flow 20-25 knots
with gusts to 30 knots into early Wednesday morning. Waves build to
4-5 ft from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. Local
experimental wind probabilities show only a short window for gale
conditions in the bay with the relative greatest chance across the
southern zones mouth of the bay. Probs offshore south of parramore
island are quite a bit higher and have upgraded the gale watch to a
gale warning through Wednesday morning for these areas. Forecast is
a bit more uncertain for offshore zones to the north so will keep
the current gale watch in place with this forecast package. Seas
will briefly subside to 3-4 ft Tuesday morning before building
considerably in the post-frontal NW flow. Winds become nnw or N by
Tuesday evening, leading to seas 5-8 ft N and 6-9 ft s. Accordingly,
opted to issue a high surf advisory from va beach southward Tuesday
evening through early Wednesday afternoon.

High pressure builds in rather quickly on Wednesday afternoon with
improving conditions. High pressure moves offshore Thursday. The end
off the week into the weekend looks to be unsettled as low pressure
near shore and high pressure over the northeast lead to an extended
period of enhanced northeasterly flow over the region.

Climate
An arctic cold front will cross the region on Tuesday, with the
coldest air of the season spreading across the area Tuesday
night through Thursday. Record low and low MAX temperatures
for Wednesday 11 13 are below
record
location low (11 13) year
------- -------- ------
richmond 20 1941
norfolk 27 1934
salisbury 19 2001
record
low max
location (11 13) year
-------- ------ ----
richmond 37 1911
norfolk 42 1920
salisbury 42 1977

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Freeze watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
ncz017-102.

High surf advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est
Wednesday for ncz102.

Va... Freeze watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
vaz095-098-100-524-525.

High surf advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est
Wednesday for vaz098.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 1 am est
Wednesday for anz635>637.

Small craft advisory until 7 am est Wednesday for anz630>632-
634-638.

Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 7 am est
Wednesday for anz633.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for anz650-
652-654.

Gale warning from 10 am this morning to 7 am est Wednesday for
anz654-656-658.

Gale watch from 10 am est this morning through Wednesday
morning for anz650-652.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Alb
short term... Eri mam
long term... Tmg
aviation... Ajz
marine... Ajz rhr
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 9 mi49 min SW 18 G 25 59°F 1009.6 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 11 mi49 min WSW 18 G 19 58°F 1009.2 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 12 mi61 min SSW 8.9 G 14 59°F 54°F1008.9 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 15 mi49 min SW 18 G 22 59°F 58°F1008.9 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi61 min SW 18 G 22 58°F 53°F1009.8 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 28 mi49 min WSW 13 G 23
44042 - Potomac, MD 31 mi37 min SW 19 G 23 59°F 57°F2 ft1012.1 hPa (-1.7)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi37 min S 18 G 19 59°F 56°F1008.2 hPa (-1.7)44°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi127 min S 7 58°F 1007 hPa42°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 35 mi61 min SW 13 G 17 59°F 55°F1010 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 36 mi31 min WSW 9.7 G 12 59°F 55°F1007.5 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi49 min 59°F 1007 hPa
CPVM2 37 mi55 min 59°F
NCDV2 43 mi61 min SW 8.9 G 15 59°F 54°F1008.3 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 49 mi49 min SSW 6 G 11 59°F 53°F1007.8 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD13 mi57 minSSW 9 G 1510.00 mi59°F41°F51%1009.1 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD15 mi1.7 hrsSW 11 G 2010.00 miFair59°F39°F48%1009.4 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD24 mi44 minSSW 16 G 2410.00 miFair62°F42°F48%1009.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGE

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Taylors Island, Slaughter Creek, Little Choptank River, Maryland
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Taylors Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:49 AM EST     1.20 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:33 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:37 AM EST     Full Moon
Tue -- 08:48 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:36 PM EST     1.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:23 PM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.811.21.21.10.90.60.30.10.10.20.40.81.21.51.71.71.61.310.80.50.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:04 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:26 AM EST     0.37 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:17 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:33 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:29 AM EST     -0.43 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:37 AM EST     Full Moon
Tue -- 11:01 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:24 PM EST     0.77 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:01 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:30 PM EST     -0.71 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (3,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.