Monday, February17, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Church Creek, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:44PM Monday February 17, 2020 6:58 AM EST (11:58 UTC) Moonrise 2:25AMMoonset 12:21PM Illumination 37% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 638 Am Est Mon Feb 17 2020
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 638 Am Est Mon Feb 17 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build across the region through early Tuesday. The next frontal system will impact the waters late Tuesday. High pressure will return Wednesday. Small craft advisory conditions will be possible early Wednesday and again Thursday night into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Church Creek, MD
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location: 38.5, -76.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 171028 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 528 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak low pressure system will move offshore of the Carolina coast today. Another stronger cold front will cross the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. High pressure will be slow to build southeast from the Midwest late in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 525 AM EST Monday .

Clear skies, light winds, and lingering low-level moisture have allowed for the development of patchy fog (VSBYs locally less than 1SM) across sections of SE VA/NE NC where partial clearing has occurred (mainly from Northampton County ENE to Chesapeake). Added a mention of patchy fog to the grids to account for this. Expect any fog to burn off by around 9 AM or so. Will continue to monitor for the potential issuance of an SPS.

Previous Discussion as of 345 AM:

Early morning surface analysis shows weak ~1017mb low pressure centered about 100 miles S of Wilmington, NC, with weak high pressure centered over nrn Michigan. Aloft, an upper shortwave was quickly moving ewd across east-central NC. Widespread light to moderate rain has just about exited our coastal NE NC zones, with a few showers noted in NE NC. A (partial) clearing line is noted just W of our CWA and is expected to advance eastward this morning as the aforementioned area of low pressure (sfc- aloft) moves offshore. Temperatures early this morning range from the mid 30s-around 40F N/NW, to the mid 40s SE.

Pcpn chances diminish between now and sunrise as radar trends indicate that the steady rain moves offshore of the NC coast by 6-7 AM. Have PoPs of 20-50% through 7 AM falling to below 15% thereafter. Pcpn amounts have generally been in the 0.1-0.3" range across NE NC, with a few isolated amounts of ~0.5" near the Albemarle Sound. Rain amounts have been less than 0.1" near the VA/NC border.

Partial clearing is expected to occur from west to east this morning, which will result in a partly cloudy/dry day. Winds turn to the NE today as the low moves well offshore of the NC coast and high pressure becomes centered over nrn New England. Little in the way of cold advection is expected in the wake of the low with highs today warming into the mid 50s in most inland areas, with mainly low 50s near the immediate coast (with NE flow behind the front). Some upper 50s are possible across interior NE NC, while highs may fail to reach 50 along the Atlantic coast of the Lower MD Ern Shore. Winds turn to the SE- SSE tonight as the high moves into the Canadian Maritimes and low pressure slowly deepens as it tracks ENE from the Midwest to the nrn Great Lakes. Low temperatures will range from the mid- upper 30s N-NW to the low-mid 40s across far SE VA/NE NC. Could see some patchy fog develop across parts of the area tonight as low-level moisture increases (coupled w/ a strengthening inversion). Will leave fog out of the grids for now but will continue to monitor trends.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As of 345 AM EST Monday .

A stronger cold front approaches the area Tuesday (but will remain to our west) as ~1045 mb high pressure builds from srn Alberta/Saskatchewan to wrn North Dakota. Low pressure over the nrn Great Lakes Tue AM quickly tracks NE to nrn New England/srn Quebec by Tuesday night. The associated (trailing) cold front is progged to cross the area late Tuesday night-Wed AM. 00z/17 models are slightly more aggressive with the onset of pcpn Tue aftn (especially across wrn zones). It is still looking like the associated nrn stream shortwave (and best upper forcing) misses us to the north. However, the latest 00z/17 guidance shows the nrn flank of a series of srn stream shortwaves (and the best deep-layer moisture) may clip the CWA (especially southern/eastern zones) from Tue aftn-Tue night. Still, model QPFs across through 00z Wed are light (0.1-0.2" on average). Have increased PoPs slightly on Tue, with mainly slight chc PoPs through 18z increasing to ~45-60% along and west of I-95 . with 25-45% PoPs E of I-95 during the aftn-evening.

Will have PoPs of 45-70% across the area (highest SE) Tue night with the FROPA, with forecast QPFs of around 0.1-0.25" on average from 00-12z Wed, which lines up well w/ model consensus. The 00z/17 GFS continues to be much higher than consensus with respect to QPF from 00-12z Wed, and will continue to disregard it. Rain ends across NW zones Wed morning, but some post- frontal pcpn is likely across far srn VA/NE NC through 18z Wed. Could even see some lingering light rain across far SE VA/NE NC Wed aftn while partial clearing occurs across central/nrn zones. QPFs on Wed are generally 0.1" or less (highest across NE NC). The strong, ~1048 mb high becomes centered over nrn Iowa by late Wednesday night while it (temporarily?) dries out across our area as low-level CAA continues while surface winds veer from the N-NNE.

As for temperatures, it will be warmer on Tue with a deeper SW flow, but with there are some hints that some weak low level wedging will be difficult to dislodge across the Piedmont so have lowered highs into the mid 50s NW, while SE sections warm to the mid 60s to near 70F. Temperatures fall into the upper 30s-low 40s N to upper 40s in NE NC by 12z Wed as the front moves S of the CWA. It will struggle to warm up much on Wed, with highs only within a few degrees of 50F. Lows Wed night fall into the upper 20s-mid 30s in most areas, with mid-upper 30s over far SE VA/NE NC.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 345 AM EST Monday .

Strong (1040-1045 mb) high pressure will slowly build from the Midwest toward the region late this week before becoming centered near/over the area by Saturday morning. Aloft, a shortwave trough will be diving SE from the nrn Great Lakes to the nrn Mid-Atlantic during the Thu-Thu night timeframe. At the same time, a series of srn stream shortwaves will track from the srn Plains to SC/NC (and potentially srn VA) in W-WSW flow aloft. Depending on how the northern/southern stream features interact/phase with each other, there is a chc that parts of our area (most likely SE VA/NE NC) will see light rain Thursday afternoon perhaps briefly changing to light snow by late Thu evening. Any pcpn is expected to end from NW to SE Thu night. 00z/17 models/ensembles have trended slightly upward with respect to snow potential from late Thu-Thu night. There is a lot of variability in the deterministic solutions (and would not be surprised to see large run to run changes in the next day or so). However, the 00z/17 ensembles show an slight increasing trend with respect to potential snow late Thu-Thu night. The EPS/GEPS now show a 40-50% probability for 1" of snow across far SE VA/NE NC, with lesser probs farther NNW. The EPS even has a 10-20% probability of 3" of snow across parts of SE VA/NE NC. There is still a lot of uncertainty with respect to if we will see snow at all, but did increase PoPs to 30-40% across the SE corner of VA/coastal NE NC, with slight chc PoPs south and east of an Emporia-Newport News-Melfa line.

Highs will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s Thu, in the upper 30s to lower 40s Fri, in the upper 40s to lower 50s Sat, and in the mid to upper 50s Sun. Lows will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s Wed night, mainly in the 20s Thu night, in the 20s to around 30 Fri night, and in the mid 20s to mid 30s Sat night.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 1235 AM EST Monday .

An area of light to moderate rain (w/ mainly VFR/MVFR CIGs/VSBYs) is moving through the SE corner of VA and NE NC early this morning (including ECG). The main area of rain will miss ORF just to the south/east, while it will remain dry at PHF/ORF/ECG through the 06z TAF period. CIGs are primarily 8-12k feet at RIC/SBY/PHF/ORF, while they have lowered to ~4000 ft at ECG. Rain is expected to end at ECG by 10-11z, with perhaps a light shower or two possible at ORF during the next few hours. CIGs likely drop to MVFR at ECG during the next few hours, and some IFR CIGs are possible from 09-13z. Prevailing conditions at ORF will remain VFR/MVFR through 13z. CIGs will rise to VFR/scatter out after 13z as low pressure moves offshore of the NC Outer Banks. VFR conditions then likely prevail through the remainder of the TAF period, with just SCT-BKN high clouds. The wind will shift to the N during the 08-12z timeframe as a weak cold front pushes through the area. High pressure builds N of the region Monday with the wind becoming NE at 8-12 kt. Winds become light tonight as weak high pressure settles over SE VA. Some of the guidance (especially hi-res) is hinting at the possibility of some fog at the terminals early Tuesday morning. Still a bit early to mention in the TAFs but will continue to monitor trends.

High pressure slides offshore on Tuesday. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday bringing a chc of showers. High pressure returns late Wednesday into Thursday, though low pressure may linger not far to the SE Thursday/Friday, so some flight restrictions could return late Thursday/Friday, especially for SE VA/NE NC.

MARINE. As of 200 AM EST Monday .

No headlines in the short term despite winds turning to the NNE behind the departing low off the NC coast. High pressure builds in behind the low later today then moves off the ne coast tonite. Thus, winds turn to the SE tonite then SW Tue at speeds aob 15 kt. Seas avg 2-3 ft with 1-2 ft waves thru Tue.

A cold front crosses the area Tue eve turning the winds back to the north. Models now showing a CAA surge behind this front with a 3-6 hr period (09Z-15Z Wed) of minimal SCA level winds.

Low pressure moves east across the srn tier states later this week while arctic high pressure plunges into the nations mid section. While a lot of uncertainty exists with just how far north any pcpn with the low gets, data does suggest a formidable low off the se coast by Fri. This should result in an increase of SCA level north winds along with building waves/seas Thu nite/Fri.

HYDROLOGY. As of 525 AM EST Monday .

The River Flood Warning remains in effect for Sebrell where minor flooding is expected to continue into early Mon AM. See FLSAKQ and FLWAKQ products for specific details.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ERI/LKB NEAR TERM . ERI SHORT TERM . ERI/LKB LONG TERM . ERI/TMG AVIATION . AJZ/ERI MARINE . MPR HYDROLOGY .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 7 mi65 min 42°F 43°F1021.8 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 19 mi65 min 42°F 44°F1021.5 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi65 min 40°F 42°F1021.2 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi59 min N 8 G 8.9 41°F 41°F1022.7 hPa (+1.8)32°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi119 min N 8 G 8
44042 - Potomac, MD 33 mi35 min N 14 G 16 41°F 43°F1021.7 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi149 min Calm 1020 hPa
CPVM2 36 mi65 min 41°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi65 min 38°F 1021.4 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 38 mi65 min 42°F 43°F1021.5 hPa
NCDV2 48 mi65 min 36°F 45°F1021.4 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi65 min 39°F 41°F1022.3 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD8 mi74 minN 610.00 mi37°F33°F87%1021.7 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi67 minN 810.00 miFair42°F35°F76%1021.7 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD22 mi69 minN 510.00 miPartly Cloudy39°F33°F81%1023 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD24 mi72 minN 0 mi37°F33°F87%1022 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGE

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3S56SW445SE84SE7SE7S5S5SE4SE4CalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmN5N5N4N6
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Tide / Current Tables for Woolford, Church Creek, Little Choptank River, Maryland
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Woolford
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:15 AM EST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:41 AM EST     1.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:21 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:44 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:16 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:30 PM EST     0.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.2-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.10.30.81.21.51.51.41.210.70.40.20.10.10.30.60.80.8

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:11 AM EST     -0.45 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:51 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:22 AM EST     0.77 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:22 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:18 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:38 PM EST     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:45 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:04 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:11 PM EST     0.25 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.200.40.60.80.70.60.40.1-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.3-00.20.20.2

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.