Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Church Creek, MD

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
As of 300 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Chilly tonight, with areas of frost likely across inland areas. A Frost Advisory is in effect for many communities that are still in their growing season.

High pressure has settled across the area this afternoon and as a result, winds have dropped significantly for this morning. A few gusts of 15-20 mph are still being observed across the Eastern Shore, otherwise, land-based observation sites are measuring winds of 10 mph or less. GOES Visible imagery shows clear skies across the area, which has helped temperatures reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds will continue to decrease over the next few hours, becoming light and variable overnight. Clear skies and calm winds will result in an ideal radiational cooling environment tonight, so areas of frost are expected, with lows dropping into the mid-upper 30s. A Frost Advisory has been issued for portions of the MD Eastern Shore, inland NE North Carolina, and a majority of our Virginia counties that are still in their growing season (excluding some coastal communities). The advisory is in effect from 1 AM tonight through 8 AM tomorrow.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 PM EST Thursday...

Key Message:

- Dry weather continues through Friday afternoon.

- A few showers are possible Friday night as a weak cold front moves through the region.

High pressure will slide offshore tomorrow morning ahead of another approaching cold front. Temperatures will quickly moderate as southerly flow returns, with highs reaching the mid to upper 60s on Friday. Dew points will gradually increase throughout the day as a warm front lifts across the region, which will negate any fire weather concerns despite breezier conditions expected by the afternoon. A weak shortwave passes by to our north Friday night- Saturday, which will push another cold front through the area. As the front approaches, it will start to weaken. Scattered showers are possible along the front, with most measurable rainfall likely oriented from the MD Eastern Shore communities through the piedmont.
QPF values will likely remain below 0.10" for the entire area.
Overnight, a well-mixed boundary layer will keep temperatures milder Friday night, with early morning lows Saturday in the 50s.

Due to the weak CAA in the wake of the front and the continued SW-W flow, temperatures will remain on the warmer side for this time of year. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s Saturday, making for quite a nice start to the weekend. The progressive pattern will continue with another much stronger front approaching the region Saturday night. The southerly flow ahead of the front will keep temperatures generally mild overnight, with lows in the upper 40s to 50s. A few pre-frontal showers are possible Saturday night, but likely to be limited in areal coverage.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 300 PM EST Thursday...

Key Message:

- Remaining warm and becoming increasingly breezy Sunday afternoon ahead of a strong cold frontal passage.

- Behind the strong front, sharply colder temperatures look to be on the horizon for early next week, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s and a hard freeze likely inland Monday night and possibly Tuesday as well. Temperatures moderate for the middle to end of next week.

A significant pattern change is looking increasingly likely starting later this weekend. A low pressure system is forecast to track well to our north on Sunday, dragging the aforementioned stronger cold front through the area late Sunday/Sunday night. Ahead of the front on Sunday, temperatures will be able to reach the lower 70s likely (especially E/SE). Scattered showers are possible ahead of and along the cold front. Some meager instability will be available Sunday afternoon/evening mainly across the SE portion of our forecast area.
Despite the unfavorable timing of any showers lingering until after sunset, given strong kinematics, a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out during this time, and thus thunder wording has been maintained.

Dry and much colder weather is expected behind the front on Monday and Tuesday as a full-latitude upper-level trough builds east across the eastern half of the CONUS. 850mb temperatures may drop to as low as -10C by Tuesday morning as a frigid Canadian airmass spills south into the region. Confidence is high that this system will bring the coldest air of the season across the local area. Forecast highs are only in the upper 40s to lower 50s on Monday with upper 40s possible Tuesday despite the abundant sunshine expected. Widespread below freezing temperatures will likely occur across inland areas on both Monday night. While these temperatures will be a drastic change from the weekend, they will not stick around very long. The trough will quickly lift away from the area Tuesday, with zonal flow returning aloft. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to build across the area, which will help temperatures quickly rebound. Wednesday highs at this time could reach as high as 60 degrees, causing some weather whiplash.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 1248 PM EST Thursday...

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through tomorrow afternoon. Surface winds will trend downwards over the next few hours, becoming light and variable overnight. Winds will pick up once again by mid-morning tomorrow, with gusts of 15-20 kts expected through the afternoon.

Outlook: High pressure is expected to bring VFR conditions from tonight into the upcoming weekend. Winds become breezy again on Friday afternoon and evening ahead of the next (weak) front, which crosses the area late Friday evening into early Saturday.
The frontal passage could be accompanied by a few showers, though VFR conditions should prevail through this period. Another stronger front approaches late in the weekend, with sub-VFR conditions and a better chance of more widespread showers at late Sun night into Mon. Clearing skies and gusty NNW winds are forecast by Monday.

MARINE
As of 300 PM EST Thursday...

- Southerly winds increase Friday night as a mainly dry cold front approaches the region.

- A strong cold front impacts the region Sunday night into Monday, with elevated winds extending into at least Tuesday.

Winds are quickly decreasing over the local waters this afternoon as high pressure builds down into the region. This is in the wake of a strong cold front which moved through earlier this morning. A residual pressure gradient across the northern coastal waters is leading to occasional 25 kt wind gusts well offshore; however, most winds have decreased below SCA thresholds. Thus, SCAs for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters N of Cape Charles expired at 18z/1 PM. SCAs remain in effect S of Cape Charles until 21z/4 PM due to lingering seas of 5-6 ft. Winds tonight become light and variable as the high pressure system moves overhead.

The reprieve in the lighter winds will be short-lived as S-SW winds increase Friday into Friday night as high pressure shifts offshore and a dry cold approaches from the W/NW. Local wind suggest SCAs are likely for most of the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters N of Cape Charles as a southwesterly LLJ overspreads the area. Forecast wind speeds are 15-20 kt in the Chesapeake Bay and 15- 25 kt in the northern coastal waters, with gusts up to 30 kt. Will hold off on issuing the headlines for now as the highest wind speeds are outside the near term/24 hr period.
Winds will again diminish and become light and variable on Saturday. Yet another cold front is expected to approach the area Sunday with an increase in southerly winds. The front then abruptly pushes through the waters late Sunday night into Monday morning. A strong northward surge in winds is anticipated along the initial cold frontal passage in the ~06z/1 AM timeframe Monday morning, with strong SCAs likely and brief gusts >34 kt possible. SCA-level winds linger through most of Monday before a stronger push of cold air advection arrives Monday night into Tuesday. Given the degree of airmass change (850 mb temps dropping to -8 to -10 C) over still-relatively mild waters, Gale conditions appear increasingly likely. Current wind probabilities are ~30% in the Chesapeake Bay and 50-70% on the coastal waters for frequent >34 kt gusts and these probabilities are likely to increase as timing differences across the model guidance are resolved. Additionally, there are some low-end probabilities (around 20%) for >43 kt gusts on the coastal waters, so marine conditions will likely be highly degraded then. Regardless, this potential will be monitored closely and Gale Watches may be needed as soon as Friday night or Saturday.
The current model consensus then favors winds turning west and then southwest by the midweek period, potentially remaining at or above SCA thresholds.

Seas and waves will decrease further today and especially tonight.
Waves should build to 2-4 ft in the bay (highest N of New Pt Comfort) and 4-6 ft on the ocean Friday night into Saturday morning.
A benign sea state then returns later Saturday and Sunday, before increasing again to start the work week next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 300 PM EST Thursday...

Water levels remain on the low side today, but anomalies have slowly ticked up with the northerly wind shift. The latest tidal forecasts have most tidal gauges just above -1 ft MLLW with the next few low tides, with a few vulnerable locations in the tidal Jame River and along the Atlantic coast (e.g., Smithfield and Chincoteague)
expected drop near or just below -1 ft MLLW. Overall, not enough coverage and confidence for widespread low water, so will not be issuing any additional advisories at this time.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for MDZ021-022-024.
NC...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for NCZ012>014-030.
VA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for VAZ065-075-076- 079>085-087>090-092-093-096-512>522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ656- 658.