Church Creek, MD Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Church Creek, MD

May 18, 2024 1:45 AM EDT (05:45 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM
Moonrise 2:39 PM   Moonset 2:21 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 135 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024

Overnight - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A slight chance of showers.

Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.

Sat night - E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Waves 1 ft.

Sun night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Mon - NE winds 10 to 15 kt - .diminishing to 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.

Mon night - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.

Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 135 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024

Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
low pressure will progress offshore this weekend. High pressure will build over the waters on Monday and Tuesday, before a strong cold front approaches during the middle of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters on Saturday and Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Church Creek, MD
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 180537 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 137 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Showers become widespread across the piedmont later this evening, and slowly shift east overnight, remaining likely through most of Saturday. The widespread rain will shift south later Saturday night into Sunday, though at least light rain or drizzle will still be possible. Dry weather returns Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 955 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Rain becomes more widespread late tonight and overnight, from W to E (reaching the coast between 06-12Z). Locally heavy rainfall is possible (mainly west). A Flood Watch is in place over portions of the Piedmont.

- Showers continue Saturday with below normal high temperatures, additional heavy rain possible.

Latest analysis continues to show 1020+mb Sfc high pressure centered across Atlantic Canada into northern New England, ridging into the northern mid-Atlantic. A weak quasi-stationary boundary remains draped from NW to SE across south central VA into north central and eastern NC. 00z PW values have increased to 1.5 to 1.7" over the southern third of the area in advance of a southern stream shortwave lifting out of the mid-south late this evening into the overnight.

Showers are becoming more widespread across the piedmont, and will push east to the I-95 corridor in the next few hours, reaching the coast late tonight. PWs increase to 1.6-1.8" overnight. T-storm potential is minimal and should be confined mainly W of I-95 and along and S of route 460 through 06-087z or so, removed from the cooler/less stable marine airmass closer to the coast. Relatively mild tonight with lows around 60F, except in the low- mid 50s on the eastern shore. Have added Mecklenburg County VA to the Flood Watch, which remains in effect for much of our piedmont counties W-SW of RIC metro.

00z CAMs are trending towards higher coverage and QPF remaining across these areas in the piedmont just ahead of the boundary overnight. This matches the 12z/17 HRRR PoPs and probability matched mean QPF fields. Locally heavy rainfall is likely in spots. WPC has a slight ERO just NW of our wrn CWA line, with a marginal across our W/NW counties. As the boundary slowly lifts E-NE early Saturday, the axis of heavier rain looks to also slowly shift eastward near and after sunrise Saturday, with some signal for heavy rainfall also across srn portions of the area with some elevated instability also sliding through.

Weak sfc low pressure tracks just S of the area Sat afternoon.
While moist WSW flow aloft and deep lift continues over the region in advance of the approaching upper-level system, coverage of rainfall may be hit or miss later Saturday morning into early/mid aftn as earlier day rain/convection limits any aftn destabilization. Current thinking is most of the heavier showers and storms stay to our W or SW, though cannot rule out a few storms clipping our SW counties. High temps Sat will remain below normal w/ the onshore flow and are in the 60s N to low 70s over the far south. The vast majority of the QPF falls tonight through Saturday and totals of 0.25-0.50" are expected on the eastern shore, 0.50-1.00" over most of the rest of the CWA, with 1.00-1.50" (local amounts in excess of 2.00" possible)
in the piedmont. The Flood watch remains in effect for portions of the VA Piedmont. Some heavy rainfall and 1-2" is possible over areas w/ low 3- and 6-hr flash flood guidance (where 3-5" of rain fell earlier this week). Did not expand the Watch given a general downward trend in QPF and with a lot of uncertainty/spread in the HRRR means. For instance, in areas with a median amount of 1.00-1.50" the 25th percentile has less than 0.75".

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- The more widespread rain and any additional heavy rain threat shifts S of the area after Sat evening.

- Dreary weather and a chc for additional showers are expected Sunday across the south, with drier WX later over the north.
High temperatures will remain below normal.

the 12Z/17 models generally show high pressure to north slowly building south Sat night through Sunday, as sfc low pressure moves east across the Carolinas. Still enough upper level support for likely PoPs south and chc PoPs elsewhere Sat night, with some additional moderate to locally heavy rainfall possible over far southern VA and NE NC. By Sunday, PWATs drop off to <1.50" even in the south, with only the far southern areas expected to see 0.10" or more of additional QPF. Total QPF for this system will average 0.50"-1.00" over much of the CWA, with 1.00-1.50" and locally higher amounts possible in the piedmont and over extreme SE VA and NE NC (as some additional higher QPF affects SE VA/NE NC into Sat night).

Sunday PoPs have been lowered to 40-50% in NC, and to 15-30% elsewhere. Note that even with this continued trend to a drier solution for Sunday, it will still be relatively unpleasant with increasing NE winds, cloudy skies, and highs only in the 60s.
There could be some partial clearing over the northern 1/2 of the CWA Sun aftn so highs may reach to around 70F. Partly cloudy NW to mostly cloudy SE Sun night with lows in the 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 350 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures remain below normal Monday with mostly cloudy skies along the coast.

- Dry/sensible weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures trending much warmer. A chance for aftn storms Thu.

Low pressure gradually shifts offshore Monday, though an additional low may develop S of the upper feature offshore. High pressure also nudges south into the Mid-Atlantic. NE flow is still expected (breeziest across southern coastal areas), keeping temperatures below normal across the SE, and slight below normal elsewhere.
The low levels dry out enough well inland, allowing temperatures to warm into the mid 70s. Upper 60s are expected along the coast. The majority of the area stays dry with just a slight chc of shower along the SE coast. Lows Mon night in the 50s with some upper 40s possible well inland.

Stacked sfc and upper low now gets pushed offshore rather quickly Mon night, with upper level ridging moving in by Tue. As such, have trended the forecast warmer for Tue/Wed, with highs Tue now in the upper 70s/lower 80s inland and in the low-mid 70s at the coast. The warming trend continues Wed into Thu with mid/upper 80s making a comeback. There is decent agreement among the global models that a cold front will cross the area later Thursday afternoon. Will have a chc of showers and storms over most of the area. A little cooler behind the front to end the week. Overnight lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s for the remainder of the week.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 135 AM EDT Saturday...

There are two areas of low clouds this morning. The first is a widespread area of 600-1000 ft CIGS, mainly W of I-95 and RIC (associated w/ a large shield of rain). There are also patchy MVFR CIGs closer the coast associated w/ a maritime airmass and NE onshore flow. For ORF, PHF, SBY, and ECG, cannot rule out SCT- BKN MVFR CIGs , but prevailing VFR is forecast for at least next few hrs. RIC will drop to IFR first this morning, around 10z (cannot rule out a hr or so earlier). Degraded flight conditions and rain showers then push E to the remainder of the terminals by mid-late morning w/ initially MVFR CIGs and then IFR by the aftn today (SBY may stay MVFR for most of today).
Coverage of showers may lower some later in the aftn, but IFR CIGs and potentially some drizzle will keep flying conditions less than ideal. There is also a chc of LIFR CIGs , but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs at this point. Degraded VSBY in rain/drizzle also likely. E-NE winds are light this morning, with 5-10 kt winds prevailing for the remainder of the period.

Outlook: At least some chance for showers (and flight restrictions likely) into Sunday morning, with the best chance at srn terminals. Mainly dry by Sun afternoon and night with a few lingering showers in the SE. Dry Mon-Tue.

MARINE
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Sub SCA conditions expected this evening and overnight.

- Increasing NE wind and waves for the weekend. Small craft advisory conditions are expected over the entire marine area later Saturday and through SUnday. Wind gusts to 20 to 25 kt and seas building to 4 to 7 feet.

Weak high pressure is centered along the coast from the Carolinas to New England. The wind was generally NE at or below 15kt this afternoon, with seas 3-4ft and waves in the Bay mainly 1-2ft. An area of weak low pressure will slowly approach from the west Saturday as high pressure remains over New England resulting in a tightening pressure gradient late Sat into Sun. The wind will remain NE overnight tonight around 5-10kt, becoming E to SE 5-10 kt by morning. E winds increase to 10-15kt through the morning hours with 15 kt potentially gusting to 20 kt mid to late Saturday afternoon. Seas will mainly be 3-4ft tonight into Saturday then build late Saturday into Sunday.

Low pressure becomes more organized off the Carolina coast Saturday night into Sunday, before very slowly pulling away from the coast through Monday. Meanwhile, high pressure slowly builds in from the N. A NE wind is expected to range from 15-20kt with gusts to 25 kt (strongest for the lower Bay and ocean) with seas building to 4-5ft N and 5-6ft S and 3- 5ft waves in the mouth of the Bay.
SCAs are likely during this time period for the lower Bay/ocean, with less confidence of SCA conditions elsewhere.
High pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the Southeast coast.

HYDROLOGY
As of 320 PM EDT Friday...

Flood Warnings remain in effect for Nottoway River near Stony Creek for minor flooding. Lawrenceville crested last night and has now fallen below flood stage. Stony Creek remains in flood and is expected to crest tonight. See FLSAKQ for additional information.

While uncertainty remains with respect to rainfall amounts and exact placement over the weekend, median expected amounts are 1.00-1.50" range across area basins over the weekend. Latest forecasts indicate these amounts will lead to a secondary rise in water level late in the weekend/early next week, but that most places stay just below Minor Flood thresholds, though will need to monitor as a slight over-performance would lead to additional flooding.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the upper Bay and portions of the Northern Neck for the high tide this evening.
Two strong flood tides with very weak ebbing is resulting in a piling up of water from Windmill Point north. Minor tidal flooding is likely at Lewisetta and Bishops Head this evening.
Water levels should drop with stronger ebbing expected overnight before the Saturday morning high tide.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ021.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for VAZ075-077.
Flood Watch until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ048-060-061- 065>068-509.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 7 mi45 min SW 1.9G1.9 62°F 66°F29.98
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 13 mi45 min S 4.1G6 63°F 29.97
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 14 mi33 min S 9.7G12 61°F 65°F1 ft
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 19 mi45 min SSE 4.1G6 63°F 66°F29.96
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi45 min S 5.1G5.1 64°F 67°F29.97
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi45 min S 9.9G11 63°F 29.99
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi45 min S 6G8.9
44042 - Potomac, MD 33 mi39 min SSE 7.8G9.7 61°F 65°F1 ft
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi75 min S 2.9 63°F 29.9860°F
44063 - Annapolis 35 mi33 min SSW 5.8G7.8 62°F 65°F0 ft
CPVM2 36 mi45 min 64°F 60°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi45 min SSW 1.9G5.1 64°F 70°F29.96
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 38 mi45 min S 7G8 62°F 68°F29.96
44043 - Patapsco, MD 47 mi39 min SSW 7.8G12 63°F 66°F
NCDV2 48 mi45 min SSE 5.1G6 64°F 69°F29.94
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi45 min SSW 6G11 64°F 29.97


Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KCGE CAMBRIDGEDORCHESTER RGNL,MD 8 sm20 mincalm10 smA Few Clouds59°F59°F100%29.97
KNHK PATUXENT RIVER NAS/TRAPNELL FIELD/,MD 19 sm53 minSSW 0310 smOvercast64°F57°F77%29.96
KESN EASTON/NEWNAM FIELD,MD 21 sm20 mincalm10 smPartly Cloudy61°F59°F94%29.96
Link to 5 minute data for KCGE


Wind History from CGE
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Woolford, Church Creek, Little Choptank River, Maryland
   
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Woolford
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Fri -- 03:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:32 AM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:53 AM EDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:42 PM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Woolford, Church Creek, Little Choptank River, Maryland, Tide feet
12
am
1.8
1
am
1.7
2
am
1.5
3
am
1.3
4
am
1.1
5
am
0.9
6
am
0.8
7
am
0.8
8
am
0.9
9
am
1.1
10
am
1.4
11
am
1.6
12
pm
1.6
1
pm
1.6
2
pm
1.4
3
pm
1.2
4
pm
1
5
pm
0.8
6
pm
0.7
7
pm
0.7
8
pm
0.8
9
pm
1.1
10
pm
1.4
11
pm
1.7


Tide / Current for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
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Fri -- 02:49 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:41 AM EDT     -0.39 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:23 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:04 AM EDT     0.35 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:06 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:43 PM EDT     -0.52 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:38 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:50 PM EDT     0.56 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current, knots
12
am
0.5
1
am
0.3
2
am
0.2
3
am
-0
4
am
-0.2
5
am
-0.4
6
am
-0.4
7
am
-0.3
8
am
-0.1
9
am
0.1
10
am
0.3
11
am
0.3
12
pm
0.3
1
pm
0.2
2
pm
0
3
pm
-0.2
4
pm
-0.4
5
pm
-0.5
6
pm
-0.5
7
pm
-0.4
8
pm
-0.2
9
pm
0.1
10
pm
0.4
11
pm
0.5


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