Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moab, UT
December 2, 2023 2:47 PM MST (21:47 UTC)
Sunrise 7:13AM Sunset 4:53PM Moonrise 9:58PM Moonset 11:57AM
Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 021113 AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 413 AM MST Sat Dec 2 2023
SYNOPSIS
A series of storm systems will impact the area through early Monday, bringing signficiant snow, especially for mountains and mountain valleys of northern Utah. High pressure is expected to return to start the upcoming work week.
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/5AM Monday)...The second wave in the series impacting Utah and southwest Wyoming this weekend is tracking east out of the area this morning. Enough moisture and instability exist to allow snow showers to continue, primarily over the higher terrain, but overall seeing a relative lull in precipitation that is expected to last through at least mid- morning.
As the day goes on, expecting a regime change in the precipitation over northern and central portions of the area as we see a shift from cold to neutral temperature advection to warm advection. Will also see an increase in moisture, tapping into a decaying atmospheric river, and a noticeable increase in instability by late afternoon with the arrival of an upper jet. As a result, will see increasing coverage of snow during the afternoon, with the heaviest precipitation of this storm anticipated tonight into Sunday morning, aided by one last shortwave grazing northern Utah tonight.
The greatest uncertainty with this part of the storm comes with how quickly the airmass will warm, as this directly impacts precipitation type in the valleys, which should make a transition to rain Saturday night/Sunday morning. This will first occur in the more southern valleys (Salt Lake and Utah Valleys), most likely Saturday evening, with the change moving into the northern Wasatch Front and the Cache Valley. Compared to guidance at this time yesterday, current guidance is noticeably slower with the changeover for the northern valleys, particularly the Cache, which would have implications for the total amount of snow that falls.
Though the mountains and mountain valleys will not see a transition to rain, they will see decreasing snow ratios, so total snow amounts will be impacted if warming occurs faster or slower than anticipated. Overall, have noticed that guidance this morning is, on average, generating a fair amount more QPF than what was observed yesterday and is slower to decrease snow ratios. Am concerned that model QPF is too high given the details of the pattern, but confidence was not high enough to make significant changes. Overall, given the overall uncertainty about the details of the changeover to the warm advection regime, confidence in the precipitation forecast remains lower than usual.
One notable change with this forecast package was to upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for the Western Uinta Mountains and the Wasatch Plateau/Book Cliffs area. expected position of the final shortwave and associated jet looks to make conditions more favorable for snow accumulations in these areas, and the expected accumulations and associated impacts now firmly looking to be in warning territory.
As the last shortwave exits during the day Sunday, precipitation will tend to taper off, though showers in the mountains of northern Utah will linger throughout Sunday and into Monday morning.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/5AM Monday)...Rain and snow showers will be ending in southwest Wyoming and northern Utah as ridging to the west will bring drier conditions. Utah and southwest Wyoming will have a dry northerly flow through Monday. Valley inversions will get going Monday, but not have enough time to produce much valley haze through the day. As the ridge tracks eastward, valley inversions and haze are likely by Tuesday. Ensembles are in good agreement that the ridge axis will track over southwest Wyoming and Utah Tuesday into Wednesday. The ridge will be strong and warm, with 700 mb temperatures from around 3-4C for southwest Wyoming and Utah. This should allow for temperatures to exceed 32F for many high elevation locations with feet of accumulated snow. Northern valleys will likely be into the 40s, with 50s for central and southern valleys, but inversions, especially in northern Utah, will limit warming Tuesday through Thursday.
Ensembles are in agreement on the ridge tracking east and a storm system pushing from the PacNW into Idaho and Montana. This will bring minimal precipitation chances in southwest Wyoming and northern Utah. Valley inversions are likely to stay in place.
Models are in agreement on a trough pushing in from the eastern Pacific later in the week. The main disagreement with ensemble members is on timing, if precipitation would push in Friday or the weekend. The faster track is made of most Canadian and GEFS members, while most EPS members keep weak ridging through Friday, with the trough into Utah Saturday. The trough would be cold enough to eliminate valley inversions with valley and mountain snow into or through much of the weekend.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through around 15Z. Snow showers will drop conditions into MVFR range from late in the morning into the afternoon. Snow will transition to a rain-snow mix, then to rain Saturday afternoon. MVFR ceilings will continue with rain into the overnight.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR conditions will prevail for most valley locations through much of the morning. Snow with MVFR or lower ceilings and visibility is expected throughout southwest Wyoming and northern Utah from late in the morning into the afternoon. Snow will transition to a rain-snow mix, then to rain Saturday night for valleys.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Sunday for UTZ103-104- 107-109.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for UTZ105-106-117.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Sunday for UTZ108.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Monday for UTZ110>112.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for UTZ113.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 413 AM MST Sat Dec 2 2023
SYNOPSIS
A series of storm systems will impact the area through early Monday, bringing signficiant snow, especially for mountains and mountain valleys of northern Utah. High pressure is expected to return to start the upcoming work week.
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/5AM Monday)...The second wave in the series impacting Utah and southwest Wyoming this weekend is tracking east out of the area this morning. Enough moisture and instability exist to allow snow showers to continue, primarily over the higher terrain, but overall seeing a relative lull in precipitation that is expected to last through at least mid- morning.
As the day goes on, expecting a regime change in the precipitation over northern and central portions of the area as we see a shift from cold to neutral temperature advection to warm advection. Will also see an increase in moisture, tapping into a decaying atmospheric river, and a noticeable increase in instability by late afternoon with the arrival of an upper jet. As a result, will see increasing coverage of snow during the afternoon, with the heaviest precipitation of this storm anticipated tonight into Sunday morning, aided by one last shortwave grazing northern Utah tonight.
The greatest uncertainty with this part of the storm comes with how quickly the airmass will warm, as this directly impacts precipitation type in the valleys, which should make a transition to rain Saturday night/Sunday morning. This will first occur in the more southern valleys (Salt Lake and Utah Valleys), most likely Saturday evening, with the change moving into the northern Wasatch Front and the Cache Valley. Compared to guidance at this time yesterday, current guidance is noticeably slower with the changeover for the northern valleys, particularly the Cache, which would have implications for the total amount of snow that falls.
Though the mountains and mountain valleys will not see a transition to rain, they will see decreasing snow ratios, so total snow amounts will be impacted if warming occurs faster or slower than anticipated. Overall, have noticed that guidance this morning is, on average, generating a fair amount more QPF than what was observed yesterday and is slower to decrease snow ratios. Am concerned that model QPF is too high given the details of the pattern, but confidence was not high enough to make significant changes. Overall, given the overall uncertainty about the details of the changeover to the warm advection regime, confidence in the precipitation forecast remains lower than usual.
One notable change with this forecast package was to upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for the Western Uinta Mountains and the Wasatch Plateau/Book Cliffs area. expected position of the final shortwave and associated jet looks to make conditions more favorable for snow accumulations in these areas, and the expected accumulations and associated impacts now firmly looking to be in warning territory.
As the last shortwave exits during the day Sunday, precipitation will tend to taper off, though showers in the mountains of northern Utah will linger throughout Sunday and into Monday morning.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/5AM Monday)...Rain and snow showers will be ending in southwest Wyoming and northern Utah as ridging to the west will bring drier conditions. Utah and southwest Wyoming will have a dry northerly flow through Monday. Valley inversions will get going Monday, but not have enough time to produce much valley haze through the day. As the ridge tracks eastward, valley inversions and haze are likely by Tuesday. Ensembles are in good agreement that the ridge axis will track over southwest Wyoming and Utah Tuesday into Wednesday. The ridge will be strong and warm, with 700 mb temperatures from around 3-4C for southwest Wyoming and Utah. This should allow for temperatures to exceed 32F for many high elevation locations with feet of accumulated snow. Northern valleys will likely be into the 40s, with 50s for central and southern valleys, but inversions, especially in northern Utah, will limit warming Tuesday through Thursday.
Ensembles are in agreement on the ridge tracking east and a storm system pushing from the PacNW into Idaho and Montana. This will bring minimal precipitation chances in southwest Wyoming and northern Utah. Valley inversions are likely to stay in place.
Models are in agreement on a trough pushing in from the eastern Pacific later in the week. The main disagreement with ensemble members is on timing, if precipitation would push in Friday or the weekend. The faster track is made of most Canadian and GEFS members, while most EPS members keep weak ridging through Friday, with the trough into Utah Saturday. The trough would be cold enough to eliminate valley inversions with valley and mountain snow into or through much of the weekend.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through around 15Z. Snow showers will drop conditions into MVFR range from late in the morning into the afternoon. Snow will transition to a rain-snow mix, then to rain Saturday afternoon. MVFR ceilings will continue with rain into the overnight.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR conditions will prevail for most valley locations through much of the morning. Snow with MVFR or lower ceilings and visibility is expected throughout southwest Wyoming and northern Utah from late in the morning into the afternoon. Snow will transition to a rain-snow mix, then to rain Saturday night for valleys.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Sunday for UTZ103-104- 107-109.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for UTZ105-106-117.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Sunday for UTZ108.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Monday for UTZ110>112.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for UTZ113.
WY...None.
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Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCNY CANYONLANDS FIELD,UT | 21 sm | 54 min | SSW 11 | 10 sm | Overcast | 45°F | 19°F | 36% | 30.01 |
Wind History from CNY
(wind in knots)
Grand Junction, CO,
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