Moab, UT Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moab, UT

June 15, 2024 11:07 AM MDT (17:07 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 8:43 PM
Moonrise 1:47 PM   Moonset 1:02 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Moab, UT
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Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 151013 AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 413 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
A slowly approaching trough brings increased risk for fire weather conditions today through the arrival of the associated mostly dry cold front on Monday. Cooler temperatures follow in the wake of the potent cold front on Tuesday, however, warming temperatures are expected to follow through the second half of the week.

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Monday)...A broad trough begins tracking inland into the western U.S. today, bringing an increase in dry southwesterly flow across the forecast area. Cooler overhead temperatures begin working into northern Utah and southwest Wyoming, bringing continued slow cooling of surface temperatures across this area. That said, will continue to see high temperatures running around 5 degrees above normal. For the southern half of Utah, we'll actually see a bit of warming as compared to yesterday which will push highs up to around 10 degrees above normal. Afternoon winds will be gusting anywhere from 20 to 35 mph across Utah and southwest Wyoming, with the strongest (30-35mph) winds expected in southwest Wyoming. For southern Utah, elevated fire weather conditions begin ramping up as relative humidity values drop into the single digits and combine with breezy afternoon conditions (see Fire Weather discussion for more). Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for fire zones with critically dry fuels, though critical fire weather conditions will not just be limited to these zones.

Late Saturday evening, a weak and shallow frontal boundary is expected to drop into the western Utah which will help to keep winds elevated during the overnight hours. While no precipitation will be associated with this frontal boundary, it will help set Sunday up to see further cooling across the northern portions of the forecast area.

The aforementioned trough continues its progression into the area through the day on Sunday, allowing winds to continue increasing coincident with the increasing lower level flow. Peak wind gusts will increase by around 5 to 10 mph across the southern and eastern portions of Utah while a more stable airmass over the northwestern portion of Utah will favor weaker winds. Again, fire weather concerns will be elevated for the areas experiencing stronger winds alongside low relative humidity (i.e. southern and eastern Utah).

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Monday)...A dry but potent cold front Monday will bring gusty winds, blowing dust, and a dramatic drop in temperatures to 10-20 degrees below normal by Tuesday.

Early next week, a deepening West Coast trough will begin to track inland and approach our area, with a 100kt 300MB jet rounding the base of the trough axis over the Snake River Plain. Such a synoptic setup is much more typical of spring than the summer doldrums pattern we have been in lately. The depth of the trough axis is such that precipitation is highly likely to remain well north of our area into Idaho and Montana. Rather than precipitation, the arrival of a mid-level cold front at the leading edge of the trough axis will be marked by a potent drop in temperatures and a strong pressure gradient. Despite ensemble mean temperatures trending a bit warmer in recent runs, the magnitude of the temperature drop is still impressive by June standards; for example, the current deterministic GFS shows a range of 700MB temperatures of +14 over central Utah to - 6 over the far northwest corner of Utah. This will translate to highs dropping into the 60 to 70s for central/northern Utah valleys by Tuesday, a (likely) welcome relief from the recent heat, and lows in the 20s in the mountains. In fact, parts of the Wasatch Back such as the Park City area will be approaching the freezing mark early Tuesday, which would merit a Freeze Warning according to local seasonal criteria. Meanwhile, far southern Utah is likely to see a much more muted drop in temperatures as the colder air will not reach that far south. The only significant disagreement in global ensembles is in the frontal timing, anywhere from Monday morning to Monday evening for Northern Utah. This greatly impacts the highs Monday afternoon (e.g. an 20 degree 10th-90th percentile spread in the NBM for SLC).

The other potential hazard with this front is gusty winds and blowing dust. Pre-frontal southwesterly winds over ridges of central/southern Utah look to be in the 25-35+ mph range, while post- frontal winds will feature a short period of strong winds (likely underdone in global ensembles given the strength of the pressure gradient). The typical favored windy areas post cold front, e.g.
Point of the Mountain to Eagle Mountain, could see very strong winds, with a worst-case scenario of warning-level winds approaching 60 mph for a brief period. Such winds combined with largely dry conditions are likely to kick up significant dust as well, and could pose a hazard for any wildfire starts.

For the remainder of the workweek, heights will rebound quickly over the Central Rockies as the mean trough axis retrogrades back to the West Coast. By late in the workweek, increased mid-level moisture will advect in just to our east, supporting some threat of showers/thunderstorms over eastern Utah. That said, unless the trough position sets up farther west than currently placed in ensemble means, our area is likely to remain on the hot/dry/breezy side of the trough, meaning that those conditions are expected to return by the end of the week.

AVIATION
KSLC...VFR conditions will continue with only a few high clouds. Overnight southeast winds are likely to switch to northwesterly earlier than usual, around mid morning, with some potential for notable wind shear with stronger northwest winds of 20- 30kt around 1kft AGL. There is a 30% chance that these winds will mix down to the surface in the morning hours. Winds should decrease by mid afternoon.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Generally drier conditions today with cumulus buildups limited to higher terrain east of US-89 and only a few isolated showers/thunderstorms east of KPUC.
Otherwise southwesterly winds for points south of around KDTA and westerly to northwesterly winds elsewhere. Wildfire smoke over central Utah could lead to a few areas of limited visibility around terrain.

FIRE WEATHER
A period of critical fire weather conditions featuring a hot, dry, and windy environment will begin to spread over Utah today as an upstream trough slowly works into the western U.S.
From today through Monday, afternoon relative humidity values will bottom out in the low-teens to upper single digits for a large majority of the area alongside fair to poor overnight humidity recoveries (ranging from around 30-35 percent in western Utah to 15-20 percent for southern and eastern Utah). Winds will gradually ramp up through Monday, with peak gusts for Sunday and Monday expected to reach around 35-40 mph for southern and eastern Utah.
Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for areas with critically dry (or approaching critical) fuels.

A cold front associated with the trough will progress through Utah through Monday through Tuesday morning, shifting winds to a north to northwesterly direction across Utah. There is some uncertainty on the timing of this frontal passage, so be sure to monitor future forecasts. Winds in the post-frontal environment may continue to gust upwards of 25-30 mph, and could remain elevated through the overnight hours. Though a cooler airmass will spread over the region by Tuesday, the dry nature of the airmass will bring minimal relief to low relative humidity. The cooler airmass departs the area by the middle of the week, bringing a return to hot, dry, and breezy conditions.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ495-496.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for UTZ495-496.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT Monday for UTZ498.

Red Flag Warning from noon Sunday to 9 PM MDT Monday for UTZ497.

WY...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KCNY CANYONLANDS FIELD,UT 21 sm14 minvar 0510 smClear81°F46°F30%29.96
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