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FXUS65 KSLC 102234 AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 334 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
Mostly dry shortwave troughs will graze northern Utah through Tuesday. Precipitation chances will exist near the Idaho border and the mountains, but no meaningful precipitation will result. A cutoff low will remain over the area through the remainder of the week which will limit inversion potential, but conditions will remain dry.

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Tuesday)...Northwest flow aloft transitions to westerly flow overnight as a shortwave trough moves into the area. Dynamics are weak with this trough and will only result in isolated precipitation chances near the Idaho border and across the high terrain of northern Utah, but little to no accumulations are expected. The exception will be across the Bear River range near the Idaho border where a few inches of snow will be possible. Cloud cover from this shortwave will help to keep temperatures several degrees warmer tonight than the last couple of nights. Expect high temperatures on Monday to be a few degrees above normal.

A secondary shortwave will be on the heels of the first one, but this one also will have limited sensible weather impacts.
Precipitation chances will primarily be near the Idaho border with some light accumulating snow possible across the Raft River mountains. This will be the shortwave that will eventually cutoff across the area and linger through the rest of the week.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/5AM Tuesday)...A shortwave will move through the Great Basin region Tuesday. This shortwave will have some moisture with it and this moisture will progress southward through Utah. Given the limited moisture associated with this system and that there will not be sufficient lift to bring precipitation to valley floors, any precipitation that does occur is more than likely going to be orographically enhanced. Not much is expected for mountain accumulations given that there is limited moisture.

As this shortwave moves closer to the Arizona/Nevada/Utah border, it is expected to close off and become a cutoff low. Guidance has been consistent over the last couple of days, favoring this solution.
This low is expected to remain near the area through the week, limiting weather pattern changes for the area. After this low moves out of the region, ridging is expected to make a return.
Temperatures by the week are currently forecasted to be 5F to 15F above normal.

AVIATION
KSLC...Scattered to broken ceilings in VFR range are forecast through the TAF period. Northwest winds will transition to southeast around 03Z. Snow showers for nearby higher terrain will bring intermittent mountain obscuration.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Scattered to broken ceilings in VFR range are forecast throughout southwest Wyoming and most of Utah. Scattered snow showers could bring MVFR or lower ceilings at KLGU through the TAF period.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.

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