Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hanksville, UT

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Sunday)...A broad trough is beginning to push onto the California coast this afternoon. Locally, warming H7 temps in the increasing south to southwesterly flow are resulting in another mild day with temps running well above normal in most places. Additionally, this enhanced flow is resulting in mixing some stronger wind gusts down across portions of southern Utah as well as the west Desert, with current gusts noted generally in the 35-45 mph range or so. Anticipate this will more or less persist through the day, with potential for some blowing dust in areas downstream from an associated dust source.

While drier air is working into southern Utah today and limiting precipitation potential, lingering moisture is noted across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. Ahead of the aforementioned trough, a nose of enhanced jet flow is nosing into the region, with upper divergence/diffluence overhead, and an embedded mid-level impulse pivoting into/through Utah. In combination with diurnal destabilization, especially over the high northern terrain, anticipate the result to be convective growth through the afternoon.
Further, deep flow is resulting in associated deep layer and effective shear on the order of 40-50 kts. Surface high pressure extending from Wyoming into the northern Plains also is yielding a continued easterly focused pressure gradient, and associated easterly low level flow is leading to some locally enhanced low level backing, resulting in some minor turning to already somewhat elongated hodographs. With these ingredients in place, any convection that becomes sufficiently organized may be able to take advantage of the environment, and could see some an isolated strong to severe storm with hail and strong wind gusts as the primary threats.

Dry air will continue to push into the area into the night, which will help result in a quick downward trend to any lingering convection as diurnal heating ceases. Weather overnight ultimately looks quieter, with temperatures near to slightly above normal across southern Utah, and around 5-10 degrees above normal elsewhere.

Saturday into Saturday night the broad trough will continue slowly churning towards and eventually into the Great Basin. Initially though the day Saturday, moisture remains limited enough to largely subdue precipitation chances. Strong deep layer southerlies will otherwise promote another similarly gusty day across southern Utah and the west desert region, with more modest wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range elsewhere at areas further north. Temperatures will once again be quite mild, with highs in the 70s at most lower elevation valleys throughout Utah, and in the 60s across southwest Wyoming.
Moving into the morning hours closer to sunrise Sunday, will see moisture start to increase as the trough nears, and will see low end shower chances start to creep in.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z Sunday/6AM Sunday)...A period of unsettled weather can be expected through much of the long term forecast period, as a series of weather disturbances rotate into the area.
This will bring periods of valley rain and mountain snow through the week, along with cooler temperatures for the beginning of the week.

Sunday morning, an upper low continues to approach Utah from the WSW. This will push a cold front into the state, beginning across southwest Utah late Saturday night, progressing east through the rest Utah through Sunday afternoon. Precipitation is expected to develop along and behind the frontal boundary. With H7 temperatures falling to around -6C, expect snow levels as low as 5.5-6kft. A second shortwave disturbance coming from the northwest is then forecast to elongate and shear apart along the back side of the closed low. However, this is enough to bring a secondary cold push from the northwest into Utah on Monday, along with another round of precipitation. Models are in relatively good agreement with respect to the large-scale evolution Sunday through Monday. Locally significant mountain snowfall will be possible, with the NBM 25th- 75th percentile of snow accumulation in the 3-10 inch range in the upper Cottonwoods. Otherwise, most other mountains have 1 to around 4 or 6 inches as the 25th-75th percentile in the NBM. Some higher valleys, especially across southern Utah, could also see some light snow, with around a 50% chance of 0.1 inches of snow or greater in the Cedar City area the upper Sevier Valleys.

A weak shortwave ridge looks to shift over the area on Tuesday before another trough moves into the area on Wednesday. Some models have this trough pinching off into a weak closed low which then meanders into the Great Basin or desert southwest area through late week. While there is a bit more uncertainty regarding the evolution of this next system, there remains a chance for precipitation.
However, the general consensus is that the airmass will at least be warmer, likely above climatological normals.

AVIATION
KSLC...High-based showers have developed east of the terminal this afternoon, and will continue to develop along the higher terrain of the Wasatch before moving northeast through the evening. Showers are unlikely to impact the terminal, though gusty and erratic outflow winds are possible though around 02z Saturday.
Winds will remain gusty out of the south through this afternoon, becoming lighter overnight. An incoming weather system will bring about gusty southerly winds by late morning Saturday through the afternoon.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Scattered showers will continue this afternoon mainly north and east of the Wasatch Crest and into southwest Wyoming. Isolated thunderstorms are possible through around 02z Saturday, with a 30% chance for storms to impact KLGU-KEVW. Any storms that develop will be capable of deteriorated visibility under brief heavy rainfall, as well as gusty and erratic outflow winds. Otherwise, drier conditions build into the region overnight into Saturday, with southwesterly winds increasing areawide through Saturday afternoon.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.