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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hanksville, UT

February 19, 2025 5:37 AM MST (12:37 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:58 AM   Sunset 5:57 PM
Moonrise 12:18 AM   Moonset 10:12 AM 
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Area Discussion for Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 191006 AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 306 AM MST Wed Feb 19 2025

SYNOPSIS
A Pacific Northwest storm system will bring additional precipitation to northern and central Utah Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. High pressure will bring a drier pattern thereafter.
.SHORT TERM (After 12Z/5 AM MST Friday)...Currently seeing mostly clear and dry conditions over Utah and southwest Wyoming this morning with high pressure centered over the Great Basin. High clouds, however, are already starting to move into far western Utah ahead of a trough making its way onshore along the Pacific Northwest coast. During the afternoon, will start to see the development of snow over the mountains of northern Utah in a somewhat moist warm advection regime ahead of the main trough, with accumulations staying light at this point.

The front end of the trough and the associated cold front are on track to move across northern and central Utah this evening into early Thursday, bringing the heaviest period of precipitation with the system. This precipitation will be snow for the mountains, where 25th-75th percentile snow accumulation numbers are in the four to eight inch range for the majority of the northern and central mountains, a bit below the criteria for a Winter Weather Advisory, though timing of the heaviest snow could have some impact on those using mountain routes for their morning commute.
The precipitation type forecast for most northern Utah valley locations is a bit more problematic, with valleys from Ogden northward seeing a high chance of light accumulating snow. For valleys south of Ogden, accumulations on valley floors look less likely with the current guidance trending just slightly warmer, though believe there's a high chance of at least seeing some flakes in the air, and bench locations should see light accumulations. Thus, despite timing of the heaviest precipitation being just ahead of the morning commute, have opted not to issue any headlines at this time and see if the day shift can find some better confidence in the daytime guidance.

In cold pool instability with the main trough, will see precipitation, primarily snow, linger over northern and central Utah throughout Thursday, becoming increasingly focused over the higher terrain. As the trough tracks southeast of the area, will see associated precipitation diminish significantly Thursday night before tapering off early Friday.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/5 AM MST Friday)...

* High confidence in a period of above average temperatures and below average precipitation from this weekend through next week, with the strongest warm/dry signal across southern Utah.

At the beginning of the long term portion of the forecast period on Friday morning, model consensus depicts lingering cyclonic flow across Utah in the wake of a departing storm system, with temperatures briefly near to slightly above normal for the time of year. Roughly 15% of the ensemble membership hangs on to snow showers across northern Utah (primarily across the northern slopes of the Uintas) through the first half of the day. Mid-level height rises will begin in earnest across the area this weekend, with an attendant warming trend. The warming trend will be most pronounced across southern Utah, where high temperatures will increase 10F-15F between Friday and Sunday. A grazing trough forecast to propagate eastward across the Northern Rockies will temper the warming trend slightly across northern Utah and SW Wyoming, with about 15-20% of the ensemble membership indicating a period of snow showers across the northern mountains on Sunday. Even across northern Utah, temperatures are forecast to warm ~10F between Friday and Sunday.

High confidence exists in mid-level ridging remaining in place through Tuesday across the forecast area, with a minority of solutions showing another grazing trough swinging through the Northern Rockies on Tuesday and into Wednesday, bringing low-end (10- 20%) chances for snow showers to the northern mountains once again.
Through the middle of next week, there is virtually no chance of precipitation across southern Utah. Tuesday is forecast to be the warmest day across the region, with high temperatures ~10F above normal across northern Utah and SW Wyoming, and 10F-20F above normal across southern Utah. Majority of the ensemble solution space depicts another ridge axis building into the region in the Thursday to Friday timeframe next week, with an attendant rebound in temperatures across the north. EFI values and anomaly plots support the above-normal temperatures, with the degree of the anomalies increasing from north to south. Magnitude of EFIs suggest most records should be safe, but can't rule out the occasional record high temperature or record warm overnight low temperature. Return interval plots suggests the mild period in this forecast should occur about once every 10 years in late February.

AVIATION
KSLC...Weak warm front moving through the area this afternoon will bring a 30-40% chance of rain and snow showers along with mountain obscuration. Most likely CIGs will drop down to around 5kft between roughly 20Z-03Z, with a brief lull after this. High-res model consensus then depicts either snow showers or a solid, persistent area of snow between roughly 09Z through much of the afternoon before diminishing. CIG/VIS trends will be modulated by the strength of this activity, with a 50% chance for MVFR CIGs during this period and a 15% chance of IFR conditions. Official forecast is leaning a bit more on the pessimistic side. High confidence in southerly sfc winds through late, with increasing trends for variable to eventually stronger signal for NW winds by around 09Z. Lower confidence in wind direction during and proceeding potential showery periods from late afternoon through early evening.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Weak warm front moving through the area this afternoon will bring a 30-40% chance of rain and snow showers along with mountain obscuration to the Wasatch Front, with much higher snow chances across northern mountains and the Cache.
While snow showers will continue through the evening across northern mountains, SW Wyoming and areas near the Idaho border, brief lull in the action expected across the Wasatch Front. Stronger signal for snow showers across much of northern Utah building in after 06Z, expanding southward across central Utah through the morning hours Thursday. Snow showers then become increasingly tied to terrain by late Thursday afternoon before gradually diminishing. Stronger snow showers will bring medium to high potential for IFR CIGs /VIS. Best chances for most widespread reductions from pre-dawn hours Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon. VFR conditions expected across southern Utah.



SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.


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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KHVE HANKSVILLE,UT 23 sm27 mincalm10 smClear21°F9°F58%30.23

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