Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 2:43 PM   Moonset 2:25 AM

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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 134 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
This afternoon - E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers. Tonight - NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Sun - NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Sun night - E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 252 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis - Showers and lightning storms are forecast across the local waters this afternoon and evening along a pinned sea breeze boundary. A front will then approach the local waters Sunday, bringing increased chances for rain and lightning storms, as well as the threat for isolated to scattered strong storms Sunday into Monday. Low pressure will remain over the western atlantic through midweek which will keep daily shower and storm chances in the forecast over the local atlantic waters.
Gulf stream hazards - None.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Friday, may 17th.
46 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 35 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 28 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 20 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS61 KLWX 181854 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 254 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will drift off the Carolina Coast through the weekend.
High pressure will build overhead Monday into Tuesday. A cold front will approach from the Midwest Wednesday, then cross by Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As an upper shortwave moves off to the northeast, and a secondary shortwave moves toward the Southeast coast, moderate showers from this morning have departed. Behind the main swath of moderate rain, scattered showers linger. Ceilings and visibility quickly rebounded behind the exiting rain shield, but MVFR and lower conditions have redeveloped thanks to previous rainfall and ongoing showers. Some thinning of the cloud cover is evident on satellite this morning, with even a few breaks developing between the Allegheny Ridge and the Blue Ridge. Currently expect this clearing to expand slightly further east as we head into the afternoon, but likely no significant clearing further than the Blue Ridge. High temperatures in these areas may rise a few degrees than previously forecast.

Some guidance suggests lowering cigs/fog tonight within a few hours of sunrise, primarily for DCA and westward. Have hinted at this in the TAFs for DCA and IAD, and explicitly mentioned for MRB and CHO with higher confidence. Coverage of spotty showers decrease through the evening.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Sunday starts off with cloud cover over most of the area, with possible breaks along our western periphery similar to today.
Shower activity on Sunday appears to be less than previously forecast since the system responsible has made a swift exit and high pressure builds in from the north, but a few showers and isolated thunderstorms can't be ruled out in the afternoon quite yet, primarily west of the Blue Ridge. Cloud cover will decrease through the day and high temperatures are expected to reach into the 70s for much of the area. Low temperatures will be in the 50s. With available moisture from recent rainfall and high pressure moving in, some fog could develop late Sunday night into Monday morning.

Monday begins our reprieve from unsettled conditions with dry weather and sunny skies in the forecast. High temperatures rise to the mid-upper 70s, starting a warming trend as well.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A broad upper level ridge is forecast to be remain in place over the eastern seaboard on Tuesday with high pressure at the surface. A southerly return flow will lead to increasingly warming temperatures through the middle parts of next week. The SFC high pressure on Tuesday will keep the region dry, but an approaching cold front from the west will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. Model guidance has trended slower with the mid-week system and there remains some uncertainty if there will be enough instability (CAPE) that overlaps with the favorable period for shear to produce a threat for severe weather. SPC is focusing on the Ohio Valley for SVR weather Wednesday into Thursday, but the CIPS machine learning model continues to suggest that there is a chance for isolated severe weather in our region during the middle and later parts of next week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Ceilings and visibility quickly rebounded behind the exiting rain shield, but MVFR and lower conditions have redeveloped thanks to previous rainfall and ongoing showers. Some guidance suggests further lowering of cigs/fog tonight within a few hours of sunrise, primarily for DCA and westward. Have hinted at this in the TAFs for DCA and IAD, and explicitly mentioned for MRB and CHO with higher confidence. Coverage of spotty showers decrease through the evening.

Conditions should improve to VFR by late morning/early afternoon on Sunday as high pressure builds in.

VFR conditions are favored Tuesday through Friday with winds likely to be out of the south to southeast. Brief aviation restrictions will be possible with shower and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday.

MARINE
SCAs remain in effect for our southern waters and the lower tidal Potomac from 5PM this afternoon through 6AM Sunday morning. E/SE winds become N/NE by Sunday morning. High pressure builds in on Sunday and winds remain sub-SCA and out of the E/NE through Monday.

Sub-SCA conditions are favored on Tuesday, but a southerly channeling flow on Wednesday may require Small Craft Advisories.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Persistent onshore flow (albeit light) is expected to persist into early next week. Repeated rounds of flooding are possible, especially along vulnerable shoreline. Given the light nature of the flow, flooding should stay in the minor realm.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM to 7 PM EDT Sunday for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ534-537-543.

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Deep Point, Mattawoman Creek, Potomac River, Maryland, Tide feet

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