Marine Weather and Tides
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
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|Sunrise 7:36AM||Sunset 5:11PM||Thursday December 12, 2019 11:50 PM EST (04:50 UTC)||Moonrise 5:47PM||Moonset 7:56AM||Illumination 98%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ironton, OHHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KRLX 130252 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 952 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019
SYNOPSIS. Rain and freezing rain overspread the region early Friday, changing to all rain Friday afternoon. Active pattern persists through the weekend and into early next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. As of 950 PM Thursday .
Still concerned about the possibility of freezing rain in the protected valleys late tonight. Some valleys are below freezing at the moment, but strong southeast winds and a mid deck moving in may cause temperatures to rise. Not inclined to make any changes to the forecast yet, but keeping a close eye on it.
As of 230 PM Thursday .
1042 mb surface high currently over Long Island will continue to slowly shift off to the northeast into the Canadian Maritimes by Friday morning. A mid-level trough approaching the Ark-La-Tex at this hour will lift north along the Mid-Atlantic coast through the day Friday. Moisture ahead of this system will spread from south to north across the area early Friday. Forecast soundings show a stout warm nose aloft, so the bulk of the precipitation will fall as liquid, either rain or freezing rain. With increasing winds aloft and a substantial dry layer to overcome currently thinking the Lowlands remain just above or rise just above freezing prior to onset of rain, but this trend will have to be watched closely with potential impacts to the morning rush if we don't mix as much as expected and come in a little colder. Better chances of surfaces remaining below freezing for a few hours in areas of favored cold air damming along the eastern slopes where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from early Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon. Total ice accumulations in these areas generally a light glaze to a tenth of an inch with some locally higher amounts up to two tenths possible in the most stubborn cold spots. Should see a bit of a break in the rain late morning into early afternoon, mainly across the Lowlands prior to the next wave approaching Saturday afternoon.
SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 225 PM Thursday .
A coastal low will be lifting northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast and a secondary low will develop near eastern KY Friday night. Meanwhile, southwest flow aloft will be strengthening ahead of an approaching upper level trough with geopotential height falls across the area. In addition, models indicate that PWATs will approach one inch across the region, which is just under the peak end of climatology for mid December. These factors suggest that an uptick in precipitation coverage and intensity Friday night into Saturday morning is likely with widespread rain developing across the area.
Precipitation coverage will become more scattered in nature by Saturday afternoon as moisture wraps around the aforementioned secondary low and coastal low as these features merge around southern New England. Temperatures will be way too warm to support wintry precip across most of the area Saturday afternoon, but the one exception will be in the mountains where snow is expected through the day. Cold air advection will then be on the increase Saturday night as the deepening low pressure system moves into eastern Canada with 850mb temps dropping to around -5C to -7C by Sunday morning. This will allow rain to transition to snow across most of the lowlands into Sunday morning, especially areas along/west of the OH river where thermal profiles are expected to be colder. It is a little more uncertain for the Charleston area and locations south towards the southern coalfields as temperatures may stay just warm enough , but there is at least a chance for a rain/snow mix or a period of just snow through Sunday morning. Also can't rule out freezing drizzle during this time as forecast soundings show a lack of moisture in the DGZ, bringing uncertainty to the presence of ice crystals in clouds. For now, went with a gradual rain to snow transition across most of the area, but as details of the thermal profile become more clear, some drizzle and/or freezing drizzle may be added to later forecasts.
Any lingering precipitation on Sunday will generally be confined to the central/northern WV mountains where upslope snow is expected. Any precipitation that occurs west of the mountains should be in the form of rain on Sunday. A brief lull in precipitation activity is then expected across the area late Sunday afternoon into the evening as surface high pressure briefly builds in from the Upper Midwest.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 225 PM Thursday .
A quasi west-to-east oriented baroclinic zone is expected to develop across the Ohio Valley Sunday night as cold high pressure in the western Great Lakes builds into the area and warm/moist advection increases ahead of a low pressure system in the southern plains. Thus, PoPs will be on the increase Sunday night into Monday morning as moisture advection increases in the area and initially, temperatures should be cold enough to support snow across the area through early Monday. However, the aforementioned low pressure system will be in the vicinity of the Ark-La-Tex area Monday morning and quickly shift to the NNE towards our area by Monday evening. While there still remains uncertainty in the track of this system, both the GFS and ECMWF bring the warm sector into most of our area by Monday afternoon, bringing a transition to rain across most of the region during the day. However, the 12Z ECMWF is a bit further south with the track of the low than the 12Z GFS as the ECMWF brings the system across eastern KY and into southern WV Monday night while the GFS pulls the system towards Cincinnati. As a result, forecast confidence is still low at this time, but leaning towards at least most of our area getting into the warm sector during the day, which is what the majority of the latest 12Z GFS ensemble members suggest. Again, this should result in rain across most of the area Monday afternoon outside of the mountains, but will continue to watch model trends in the coming days for additional forecast confidence in this scenario.
The system and associated cold front should then track east of the area Monday night into Tuesday, with rain across the lowlands Tuesday afternoon and snow showers in the mountains. As cold air advection increases Tuesday night, a transition to snow is then expected across the region. Any precipitation across the area should taper off by Wednesday morning as high pressure builds in from the northwest. This feature will remain in control through the end of the long term period, with temperatures generally staying below normal.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 640 PM Thursday .
All sites will have VFR conditions this evening and into the early morning hours. Clouds will continue to move through the area overnight, lowering late tonight and Friday morning. Freezing rain may or may not occur early Friday morning at BKW, and may possibly occur at CRW/EKN. As the temperatures increase to above freezing at these sites, precipitation will change to rain.
Southeast winds will provide lower ceilings and visibilities on the eastern slopes of the mountains on Friday. Overall, winds will be relatively light at most sites, except winds at BKW will gust between 15-27KTs from the southeast throughout the night and during the day on Friday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY . FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High overnight. Medium on Friday.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Freezing rain may or may not occur at CRW, EKN, and BKW late tonight and early Friday morning.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 12/13/19 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY . IFR possible in rain Friday evening.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WV . Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST Friday for WVZ516-518- 520-523-524. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 3 PM EST Friday for WVZ522-526. OH . None. KY . None. VA . None.
SYNOPSIS . JP/RG NEAR TERM . JP/CG SHORT TERM . RG LONG TERM . RG AVIATION . CG
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|Huntington, Tri-State Airport, WV||14 mi||59 min||E 4||10.00 mi||Fair||34°F||27°F||76%||1025.4 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KHTS
Wind History from HTS (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||W||W||W||W||W||W||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||W||SW||SW||W||W||Calm||Calm||E||E||NE|
|2 days ago||SW|
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Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (23,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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