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FXUS61 KRLX 040018 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 718 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
A series of upper level disturbances bring rounds of precipitation, some wintry, through the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 715 PM Sunday,,,

Forecast on track, as showers earlier across the north dissipated as the sun set, and a subsidence inversion lowered.

As of 105 PM Sunday...

On the heels of this morning's cold frontal passage, renewed shower chances drift into the Ohio River Valley this afternoon in association with a shortwave. Convection potential stays to the north today, yielding all rain during the daytime hours across north-central West Virginia, then wrapping up along the northeast mountains under a brief period of a wintry mix late tonight into early Monday morning.

Unsettled weather continues into the new work week under the guise yet another shortwave, currently dwelling in the Mississippi Valley. This feature encroaches from the southwest Monday morning, and promotes rain showers in the lower elevations and wintry precipitation in the mountains by the afternoon/evening timeframe. Low end qpf amounts will yield light snow accumulations within this forecast period along our highest mountain zones, but better accumulations loom for the short term period.

Wind gusts increase through late tonight, allowing for breezy conditions across the Central Appalachians. Gusts of 15-25 mph across the lowlands, with 25-35 mph in the mountains could be observed. Colder temperatures return tonight with lows in the mid to lower 30s, then only rising into the 40s/50s on Monday.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 133 PM Sunday...

Much of Tuesday should be mainly dry across the area, however, light precipitation may occur late Monday night from a passing weak wave.
This could produce a light wintry mix in spots, but precipitation will be so light, that no hazards are expected. Plus, ground temperatures across the lowlands are likely not cold enough for any freezing precipitation to occur on surfaces.

Focus then shifts to later in the day Tuesday, when a clipper type system moves towards the area. Precipitation to start Tuesday should mainly in the form of rain outside of the mountains, but as system/shortwave digs south over the area Tuesday evening into Wednesday, colder air will filter in, with a change over to snow expected, with accumulating snow expected across the mountains. Will continue to highlight mountainous counties in the HWO, and amounts at this time are looking to mainly be in the advisory criteria range.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1105 AM Sunday...

Precipitation/upslope snow will gradually shut off late Wednesday night into early Thursday as the system departs the area and high pressure builds in. Temperatures will slowly moderate towards the end of the week as upper heights build and surface high slides east. Another system looks to affect the area next weekend, providing mainly rain to the area.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 715 PM Sunday...

Low pressure pulls away to the northeast of the area tonight, allowing weak high pressure to cross early Monday morning, before the next low pressure system passes south of the area Monday afternoon.

Stratocumulus in cold advection west flow behind the exiting low tonight may lower to MVFR in the mountains overnight, especially at BKW, and remain so into Monday morning before lifting again.
Showers earlier across the north dissipated as the sun set, and a subsidence inversion lowered.

Altocumulus associated with the next low pressure center Monday morning lowers to stratocumulus Monday afternoon as that low passes south of the area, but should remain VFR through 00Z Tuesday, and nothing more than spotty light rain. mainly across southern WV, is expected Monday afternoon.

Gusty west surface flow early on will fluctuate, but with a general trend to diminish tonight, especially across southern sites, where there is a brief opportunity for fog to form overnight, before clouds associated with the next low pressure system arrive during the predawn hours. Light west to southwest surface flow Monday morning will become light west to northwest Monday afternoon. Flow aloft will generally be moderate west, slackening off a bit Monday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds early tonight will fluctuate.
Ceilings may vary from the forecast, especially overnight into Monday morning. There may be more fog formation overnight than currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EST 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M M M H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H M H H H H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in snow in the higher elevations of the mountains Monday evening, and then once again Tuesday night through Wednesday, when snow levels lower.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

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