Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Long Neck, DE
November 29, 2023 9:32 AM EST (14:32 UTC)
Sunrise 6:57AM Sunset 4:44PM Moonrise 6:26PM Moonset 9:27AM
ANZ455 Coastal Waters From Cape Henlopen To Fenwick Island De Out 20 Nm- 702 Am Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. SW swell 2 to 3 ft at 4 seconds.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. SW swell 2 to 3 ft at 4 seconds.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. S swell 2 to 3 ft at 4 seconds. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. S swell 2 to 3 ft at 4 seconds. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain through the night.
Sun..NE winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. SW swell 2 to 3 ft at 4 seconds.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. SW swell 2 to 3 ft at 4 seconds.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. S swell 2 to 3 ft at 4 seconds. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. S swell 2 to 3 ft at 4 seconds. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain through the night.
Sun..NE winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
ANZ400 702 Am Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Cold weather persists through today as high pressure remains in firm control. This high will eventually move offshore Thursday. An area of low pressure approaches on Friday with additional waves of low pressure moving up from the south likely to affect the area over the weekend into early next week.
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Cold weather persists through today as high pressure remains in firm control. This high will eventually move offshore Thursday. An area of low pressure approaches on Friday with additional waves of low pressure moving up from the south likely to affect the area over the weekend into early next week.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 291408 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 908 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
SYNOPSIS
Cold weather persists through today as high pressure remains in firm control. This high will eventually move offshore Thursday. An area of low pressure approaches on Friday with additional waves of low pressure moving up from the south likely to affect the area over the weekend into early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 9:05AM...Conditions remain quiet across the region.
Adjusted T/Td for the next few hours based on observations.
Otherwise, no changes to the forecast have been made at this time
Previous discussion remains below
A tranquil hump day is expected area-wide for today. High pressure will slide by to the south, with low level flow going backing from the west to the southwest as the surface high moves offshore. This will promote a moderation of the airmass, though this moderation looks to occur later in the day, too late to have a substantial impact on today's temperatures. Highs will be relatively similar to yesterday, but with significantly less wind as the gradient has weakened overall. This will result in wind chills being a few degrees higher than yesterday. A shortwave embedded within a longwave trough will move through later today, which will bring some mid to high level cloud cover, but not expecting any precipitation due to an abundance of dry air within the low levels of the atmosphere.
For tonight, some clouds will hang around through the first half of the night as the shortwave moves out. By midnight or so, skies should be mostly clear, with efficient radiational cooling conditions setting up as winds will generally be light. Lows will be in the low to mid 20s with upper 20s/low 30s along the coast and within the Philadelphia metro area.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
For Thursday, high pressure shifts offshore and will be parked between the Carolina coast and Bermuda allowing southwest flow to ensue. As a result, warm air advection will begin to make its way up into our region with temperatures moderating through the end of the work week. Skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy for Thursday with highs mainly in the upper 40s to low 50s, except low to mid 40s over the southern Poconos and NW NJ.
By Thursday night, a weak impulse aloft embedded in the upper flow will be tracking near the Ozarks up into the interior Northeast. At the surface, an area of low pressure develops near OK/TX and generally moves in our direction through Friday night. An expansive cloud shield in association with this system will begin to move in late Thursday night into early Friday, resulting in thickening clouds. This will result in noticeably warmer temps Thursday night compared to the night prior, with lows generally in the 30s.
Light rain begins to overspread the on Friday from west to east beginning mainly around the late morning to early afternoon timeframe. Some brief periods of moderate rain are possible Friday afternoon into the evening before the system moves out by early Saturday. Surface through 850mb temps do look to be quite warm, thanks to the warm air advection pattern ahead of the system with the high moving offshore, so we are only expecting rain for this event. Total rain amounts are not expected to be that significant...generally ranging from a tenth up to several tenths of an inch. Friday's high temperatures will be similar to Thursday's with milder overnight lows expected for Friday night though as lows will mostly range from the mid 30s to low 40s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The weather pattern becomes increasingly complex and uncertain through the long term period, at least in terms of specific sensible weather impacts for our region. In the big picture, a broad long wave trough will be centered roughly near the Rocky Mountain states to start the period with a deep layer southwest flow over the eastern CONUS. Over the course of the weekend into early next week, a series of shortwaves will be ejected out of this trough as it slowly moves east and vie for dominance in controlling where and when exactly a stronger surface low develops over the eastern CONUS. In terms of the details, Friday's rain should be mostly done by Saturday morning but the next in the series of upper level waves will be quickly on its heels as it moves into the lower Great Lakes Saturday. At the least, this should keep conditions mostly cloudy for Saturday but it still looks at this point like enough deeper moisture will have moved out with the first wave to keep it mainly dry. Can't completely rule out though that there will be a few sprinkles or some drizzle around. It will be fairly mild with highs mostly in the low to mid 50s, except near 60 over southern DE and in the 40s over the southern Poconos into NW NJ.
As we head towards the latter half of the weekend into early next week, this is when the forecast becomes more uncertain and will depend on exactly when and where we get a stronger surface low to form. Much of the deterministic guidance has an area low pressure arriving in some form for the Sunday into Monday period but there remain differences in the details and these differences become even more significant looking at the spread in the model ensembles. Some GEFS members still show a fairly strong low developing along the east coast. This all said, the main takeaway is that there is more uncertainty than average but the overall trend will be for it to be unsettled but mild Sunday through early Tuesday. Given this uncertainty, we stayed with the NBM for this forecast update which entails "chance" POPs (30-50 percent) for each of the periods from Sunday through Monday night. Temperatures look to remain above average though so we'd most likely only be looking at rain across the region.
Following the surface low that's likely to sweep through sometime early next week, it will trend colder through the middle of next week. As of right now, we are forecasting it to be drying out next Tuesday into Wednesday. However broadening way back out again, the large scale weather pattern on the hemispheric scale suggest the forecast for mid to late next week will have to be watched closely as north Atlantic blocking (Negative NAO) should be breaking down with ridging tending to retrograde into northeast Canada while trough occurs over the eastern CONUS. This is a large scale weather pattern that's generally more favorable for colder coastal storms.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Today...VFR. Westerly winds to start with gradually backing winds as the day goes on. Winds will eventually be southwesterly by the afternoon, with speeds staying in the 8-13 kt range, with perhaps a few gusts in the mid to upper teens. Some stratocumulus possible at KRDG/KABE, with more of a scattered mid-level cloud deck (bases > 10k feet) at all other terminals. High confidence in prevailing VFR and wind speed. Moderate confidence in timing of wind direction changes.
Tonight...VFR. South/Southwest winds around 5 kt. Some scattered clouds between 5-10k feet for the first half of the night with mostly clear skies for the second half of the night.
High confidence.
Outlook...
Thursday through Thursday night...VFR. SW-W winds around 5-10 kt during the day, becoming S-SW winds around 5-10 kt at night. High confidence.
Friday through Friday night...Sub-VFR likely with periods of light to moderate rain especially during the afternoon and evening.
Southerly winds around 10 kt during the day, becoming NW-N winds around 5-10 kt at night. Moderate confidence.
Saturday through Saturday night...Mostly cloudy with potential for sub VFR conditions during the day Saturday due to low stratus with a higher potential for this at night. Winds generally northeast 5 to 10 knots. Low confidence.
Sunday...Sub-VFR expected with rain showers. N winds around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible. Low confidence.
MARINE
Winds will diminish as the morning goes on. W/SW winds will eventually settle in the 10-20 kt range with 2 to 4 foot seas.
Gusts could get back near 25 kt especially later tonight, though not expecting gusts greater than or equal to 25 kt.
Outlook...
Thursday through Friday...Mainly Sub SCA conditions for the day Thursday with the potential for southwest winds gusting up to 25 knots Thursday evening into the overnight. Winds should then ease somewhat for Friday. Seas of 2-4 feet through this period.
Saturday through Saturday night...No marine headlines expected. N-NE winds around 10-15 kt. Seas of 3-4 feet.
Sunday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. N-NE winds around 15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt. Seas of 3-4 feet.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 908 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
SYNOPSIS
Cold weather persists through today as high pressure remains in firm control. This high will eventually move offshore Thursday. An area of low pressure approaches on Friday with additional waves of low pressure moving up from the south likely to affect the area over the weekend into early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 9:05AM...Conditions remain quiet across the region.
Adjusted T/Td for the next few hours based on observations.
Otherwise, no changes to the forecast have been made at this time
Previous discussion remains below
A tranquil hump day is expected area-wide for today. High pressure will slide by to the south, with low level flow going backing from the west to the southwest as the surface high moves offshore. This will promote a moderation of the airmass, though this moderation looks to occur later in the day, too late to have a substantial impact on today's temperatures. Highs will be relatively similar to yesterday, but with significantly less wind as the gradient has weakened overall. This will result in wind chills being a few degrees higher than yesterday. A shortwave embedded within a longwave trough will move through later today, which will bring some mid to high level cloud cover, but not expecting any precipitation due to an abundance of dry air within the low levels of the atmosphere.
For tonight, some clouds will hang around through the first half of the night as the shortwave moves out. By midnight or so, skies should be mostly clear, with efficient radiational cooling conditions setting up as winds will generally be light. Lows will be in the low to mid 20s with upper 20s/low 30s along the coast and within the Philadelphia metro area.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
For Thursday, high pressure shifts offshore and will be parked between the Carolina coast and Bermuda allowing southwest flow to ensue. As a result, warm air advection will begin to make its way up into our region with temperatures moderating through the end of the work week. Skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy for Thursday with highs mainly in the upper 40s to low 50s, except low to mid 40s over the southern Poconos and NW NJ.
By Thursday night, a weak impulse aloft embedded in the upper flow will be tracking near the Ozarks up into the interior Northeast. At the surface, an area of low pressure develops near OK/TX and generally moves in our direction through Friday night. An expansive cloud shield in association with this system will begin to move in late Thursday night into early Friday, resulting in thickening clouds. This will result in noticeably warmer temps Thursday night compared to the night prior, with lows generally in the 30s.
Light rain begins to overspread the on Friday from west to east beginning mainly around the late morning to early afternoon timeframe. Some brief periods of moderate rain are possible Friday afternoon into the evening before the system moves out by early Saturday. Surface through 850mb temps do look to be quite warm, thanks to the warm air advection pattern ahead of the system with the high moving offshore, so we are only expecting rain for this event. Total rain amounts are not expected to be that significant...generally ranging from a tenth up to several tenths of an inch. Friday's high temperatures will be similar to Thursday's with milder overnight lows expected for Friday night though as lows will mostly range from the mid 30s to low 40s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The weather pattern becomes increasingly complex and uncertain through the long term period, at least in terms of specific sensible weather impacts for our region. In the big picture, a broad long wave trough will be centered roughly near the Rocky Mountain states to start the period with a deep layer southwest flow over the eastern CONUS. Over the course of the weekend into early next week, a series of shortwaves will be ejected out of this trough as it slowly moves east and vie for dominance in controlling where and when exactly a stronger surface low develops over the eastern CONUS. In terms of the details, Friday's rain should be mostly done by Saturday morning but the next in the series of upper level waves will be quickly on its heels as it moves into the lower Great Lakes Saturday. At the least, this should keep conditions mostly cloudy for Saturday but it still looks at this point like enough deeper moisture will have moved out with the first wave to keep it mainly dry. Can't completely rule out though that there will be a few sprinkles or some drizzle around. It will be fairly mild with highs mostly in the low to mid 50s, except near 60 over southern DE and in the 40s over the southern Poconos into NW NJ.
As we head towards the latter half of the weekend into early next week, this is when the forecast becomes more uncertain and will depend on exactly when and where we get a stronger surface low to form. Much of the deterministic guidance has an area low pressure arriving in some form for the Sunday into Monday period but there remain differences in the details and these differences become even more significant looking at the spread in the model ensembles. Some GEFS members still show a fairly strong low developing along the east coast. This all said, the main takeaway is that there is more uncertainty than average but the overall trend will be for it to be unsettled but mild Sunday through early Tuesday. Given this uncertainty, we stayed with the NBM for this forecast update which entails "chance" POPs (30-50 percent) for each of the periods from Sunday through Monday night. Temperatures look to remain above average though so we'd most likely only be looking at rain across the region.
Following the surface low that's likely to sweep through sometime early next week, it will trend colder through the middle of next week. As of right now, we are forecasting it to be drying out next Tuesday into Wednesday. However broadening way back out again, the large scale weather pattern on the hemispheric scale suggest the forecast for mid to late next week will have to be watched closely as north Atlantic blocking (Negative NAO) should be breaking down with ridging tending to retrograde into northeast Canada while trough occurs over the eastern CONUS. This is a large scale weather pattern that's generally more favorable for colder coastal storms.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Today...VFR. Westerly winds to start with gradually backing winds as the day goes on. Winds will eventually be southwesterly by the afternoon, with speeds staying in the 8-13 kt range, with perhaps a few gusts in the mid to upper teens. Some stratocumulus possible at KRDG/KABE, with more of a scattered mid-level cloud deck (bases > 10k feet) at all other terminals. High confidence in prevailing VFR and wind speed. Moderate confidence in timing of wind direction changes.
Tonight...VFR. South/Southwest winds around 5 kt. Some scattered clouds between 5-10k feet for the first half of the night with mostly clear skies for the second half of the night.
High confidence.
Outlook...
Thursday through Thursday night...VFR. SW-W winds around 5-10 kt during the day, becoming S-SW winds around 5-10 kt at night. High confidence.
Friday through Friday night...Sub-VFR likely with periods of light to moderate rain especially during the afternoon and evening.
Southerly winds around 10 kt during the day, becoming NW-N winds around 5-10 kt at night. Moderate confidence.
Saturday through Saturday night...Mostly cloudy with potential for sub VFR conditions during the day Saturday due to low stratus with a higher potential for this at night. Winds generally northeast 5 to 10 knots. Low confidence.
Sunday...Sub-VFR expected with rain showers. N winds around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible. Low confidence.
MARINE
Winds will diminish as the morning goes on. W/SW winds will eventually settle in the 10-20 kt range with 2 to 4 foot seas.
Gusts could get back near 25 kt especially later tonight, though not expecting gusts greater than or equal to 25 kt.
Outlook...
Thursday through Friday...Mainly Sub SCA conditions for the day Thursday with the potential for southwest winds gusting up to 25 knots Thursday evening into the overnight. Winds should then ease somewhat for Friday. Seas of 2-4 feet through this period.
Saturday through Saturday night...No marine headlines expected. N-NE winds around 10-15 kt. Seas of 3-4 feet.
Sunday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. N-NE winds around 15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt. Seas of 3-4 feet.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 44084 | 7 mi | 37 min | 52°F | 1 ft | ||||
| LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE | 14 mi | 45 min | WNW 9.9G | 29°F | 45°F | 30.24 | ||
| OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD | 18 mi | 45 min | NW 11G | 30°F | 47°F | 30.19 | ||
| 44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ | 27 mi | 33 min | NW 9.7G | 34°F | 56°F | 30.22 | 26°F | |
| BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE | 28 mi | 51 min | 30.24 | |||||
| CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ | 29 mi | 45 min | WNW 8.9G | 32°F | 30.22 | |||
| DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE | 38 mi | 183 min | 0 | 21°F | 30.21 | 16°F | ||
| CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD | 48 mi | 45 min | NW 11G | 31°F | 45°F | 30.26 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KGED DELAWARE COASTAL,DE | 13 sm | 38 min | WNW 05 | 10 sm | -- | 28°F | 14°F | 54% | 30.23 | |
| KOXB OCEAN CITY MUNI,MD | 19 sm | 2.7 hrs | NW 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 27°F | 16°F | 63% | 30.23 | |
| KSBY SALISBURYOCEAN CITY WICOMICO RGNL,MD | 24 sm | 38 min | WNW 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 30°F | 18°F | 59% | 30.25 |
Wind History from GED
(wind in knots)Oak Orchard
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:47 AM EST -0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:57 AM EST Sunrise
Wed -- 09:26 AM EST Moonset
Wed -- 11:27 AM EST 1.05 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:40 PM EST Sunset
Wed -- 06:26 PM EST Moonrise
Wed -- 06:38 PM EST -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:47 AM EST -0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:57 AM EST Sunrise
Wed -- 09:26 AM EST Moonset
Wed -- 11:27 AM EST 1.05 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:40 PM EST Sunset
Wed -- 06:26 PM EST Moonrise
Wed -- 06:38 PM EST -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Oak Orchard, Delaware, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.8 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 0.5 |
| 3 am |
| 0.3 |
| 4 am |
| 0.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0 |
| 6 am |
| -0 |
| 7 am |
| 0.1 |
| 8 am |
| 0.4 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 1 |
| 12 pm |
| 1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 6 pm |
| -0 |
| 7 pm |
| -0 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:53 AM EST -1.18 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:31 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:57 AM EST Sunrise
Wed -- 07:41 AM EST 1.61 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:27 AM EST Moonset
Wed -- 10:57 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:37 PM EST -1.50 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:39 PM EST Sunset
Wed -- 05:50 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:24 PM EST Moonrise
Wed -- 08:26 PM EST 1.22 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:23 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:53 AM EST -1.18 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:31 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:57 AM EST Sunrise
Wed -- 07:41 AM EST 1.61 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:27 AM EST Moonset
Wed -- 10:57 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:37 PM EST -1.50 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:39 PM EST Sunset
Wed -- 05:50 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:24 PM EST Moonrise
Wed -- 08:26 PM EST 1.22 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:23 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.7 |
| 1 am |
| -1.1 |
| 2 am |
| -1.2 |
| 3 am |
| -0.9 |
| 4 am |
| -0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.3 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 1.5 |
| 8 am |
| 1.6 |
| 9 am |
| 1.3 |
| 10 am |
| 0.7 |
| 11 am |
| -0 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| -1.1 |
| 2 pm |
| -1.4 |
| 3 pm |
| -1.5 |
| 4 pm |
| -1.1 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.2 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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