Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Long Neck, DE

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 7:51PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 1:04 PM EDT (17:04 UTC) Moonrise 9:40PMMoonset 9:52AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ455 Expires:201908210415;;937724 Fzus51 Kphi 201629 Cwfphi Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mount Holly Nj 1229 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019 Sandy Hook Nj To Fenwick Island De To 20 Nm Offshore And Delaware Bay Anz454-455-210415- Coastal Waters From Cape May Nj To Cape Henlopen De Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Henlopen To Fenwick Island De Out 20 Nm- 1229 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
This afternoon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. Isolated showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of tstms until early morning. A chance of showers.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. Showers likely.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1229 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A weak cold front will stall near or in the region today before slowly shifting northward as a warm front tonight and Wednesday. A lee surface trough will develop across the area on Wednesday ahead of a slow-moving cold front, which will cross the area Thursday and Thursday night. High pressure will gradually build into the area this weekend into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Neck, DE
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location: 38.58, -75.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 201325
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
925 am edt Tue aug 20 2019

Synopsis
A weak cold front will stall near or in the region today before
slowly shifting northward as a warm front tonight and Wednesday. A
lee surface trough will develop across the area on Wednesday ahead
of a slow-moving cold front, which will cross the area Thursday and
Thursday night. High pressure will gradually build into the area
this weekend into early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Only minor adjustments made to the forecast this morning to
better reflect the current temperatures and trends.

A backdoor cold front dipped down across the area overnight and
is expected to stall out across the area through today. The
exact placement is to be determined, but most likely across
southern new jersey, across northern delmarva, and across
southeastern pennsylvania for much of the day. It will likely
try to begin drifting back northward later in the afternoon.

Several short wave vorticity impulses will move across the area
within a weak west to southwest flow aloft which will help lead
to a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. CAPE values will increase to at least 1,500-2,500
j kg across much of the area, especially along and south of the
frontal boundary. However, with the weak flow aloft, shear is
very minimal, not even reaching 20 knots. However, given the
strength of the instability, some strong updrafts will be
possible, which could produce some stronger downbursts as well
as some hail. With pw values around 1.75-2.00 inches, any
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall as
they will be efficient rain producers. Any storms will likely be
slow moving as well, so there will be the potential for some
areas of flooding.

Today will be another hot and humid day, although north of the
stalled out frontal boundary, dewpoints will likely be a couple of
degrees lower then south of the boundary. We have kept the heat
advisory for the urban corridor as some areas will approach or
exceed 100 degree heat index criteria.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
The frontal boundary will continue to slowly drift northward
overnight tonight, but likely not fully clear the area by daybreak.

Multiple short wave vorticity impulses will move across the area
within the southwest flow aloft. This will help lead to a chance of
showers and thunderstorms through the night. There will also be the
chance for patchy fog overnight as well.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Main forecast challenges revolve around storm chances through
the end of the week.

The setup continues to look quite favorable for a couple rounds
of storms Wednesday through Friday. Starting with Wednesday,
with the backdoor-cold-turned-warm front lifting north into new
england, a lee surface trough will become established across the
region during the day. Meanwhile, as a potent vort MAX pivots
southeastward into the great lakes, a predecessor perturbation
will eject east into far southeast canada and new england.

Large-scale ascent in advance of this perturbation should become
collocated with the prefrontal trough and the downstream warm
sector. Numerous storms are expected to develop by afternoon
from the northern mid-atlantic northeastward in an environment
characterized by 1500+ j kg MLCAPE and increasing deep-layer
shear. Our CWA will be on the southern fringe of both the
stronger shear and strongest large-scale ascent. Nevertheless,
the thermodynamic profiles are suggestive of fairly strong cold
pools developing with storms. Given the anticipated coverage of
convection, would expect storm organization to increase with
time even this far south given the favorable profiles for strong
cold pools. Latest convection-allowing model guidance depicts
storms congealing into line segments and affecting the northern
portions of the CWA by late afternoon evening. This seems
reasonable given the setup, though I suspect the model consensus
is a little too far north (as organized convection in these
regimes tends to develop southward into the reservoir of
instability more readily than models project at these time
ranges).

Given the uncertainty with the southern extent of the strongest
convection on Wednesday, did not want to get too specific with
threats in the public forecast (yet), and the inherited pop
forecast looked quite reasonable. The SPC day-2 convective
outlooks maintains a marginal risk for the northern half of the
area, with a slight risk touching the far northern portions of
the area. Clearly, this will be a period to watch for severe
potential. In addition, locally heavy rainfall is a concern
given high (1.75+ inch) pws and potential for slow storm motions
and or training convection.

By 00z Thursday, the aforementioned great lakes shortwave trough
will acquire a neutral tilt and begin lifting northeastward.

However, an upstream perturbation will dig southeastward into
ontario quebec on Thursday. This midlevel evolution should
result in strong cyclogenesis northeast of the great lakes
Wednesday night and Thursday, with a cold front moving toward
the east coast. However, this is where models noticeably
diverge. The 00z cmc digs this upstream perturbation into the
eastern great lakes and only gradually shifts it eastward Friday
and Saturday. This results in relatively little precipitation on
Thursday but quite a bit on Friday in our cwa. Meanwhile, the
00z GFS blasts this upstream perturbation through the northeast
on Friday, which results in most of the convection occurring on
Thursday afternoon evening before the front moves quickly
southward by Friday. The 00z ECMWF is somewhat middle-of-the-
road, though its more nebulous appearance to the upstream
perturbation is doubtful.

The bottom line is that the forecast for Thursday and Friday is
quite unclear. With frontal timing in question and its overall
trend appearing to be somewhat slower, I was inclined to keep
pops mentionable right through Friday in most of the area, with
a gradual trend downward from north to south. I am rather
concerned the GFS is much too quick in shunting the front precip
southward out of our area for Friday, especially given the
positively-tilted and amplifying ridging downstream of the
potent shortwave trough in the great lakes.

The environment downstream of the front will remain quite
unstable, and with a slowing cold front in the mix, locally
heavy rainfall is again possible.

Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will remain warm hot, and
humidity will be oppressive. Quite confident heat advisory
criteria will be met again in the urban corridor, so have
extended the advisory through Wednesday. It is not out of the
question advisory conditions last into Thursday. As the cold
front continues south, Friday should be much cooler.

Eventually, high pressure should build into the northeast,
bringing an extended period of near-seasonal temperatures and
much lower dew points. Models are hinting at prolonged onshore
flow by the end of the weekend into next week, suggesting the
cooler spell may continue for a while. No complaints!

Aviation 13z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... MainlyVFR conditions will be in place across the area
through today. There is a chance of scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon, so a prob30 group was added for
the afternoon period. If a shower or thunderstorm does occur, it
could temporarily lead to lower conditions. Winds will be quite
variable for many locations for much of the day as a back door
frontal boundary will be stalled out across the area. Any
direction will most likely be from the south to southeast, and
wind speeds will be 5-10 knots or less.

Tonight... Tonight will start outVFR this evening across the area
outside of any afternoon evening showers or thunderstorms. However,
conditions are forecast to lower overnight as low clouds and or fog
are expected to develop during the overnight period. MVFR and ifr
conditions can be expected later tonight. There is also a chance for
showers and thunderstorms to develop overnight as well.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Wednesday night... PredominantlyVFR, but sub-vfr
conditions in showers storms possible at times, especially from
the philly terminals northward. South to southwest winds 5 to 15
kts.

Thursday and Thursday night... PredominantlyVFR, but sub-vfr
conditions in showers storms possible. Southwest to west winds
on Thursday becoming northwest Thursday night, generally around
or below 10 kts.

Friday and Friday night... Low-confidence forecast, with
showers storms possible, especially south of phl. Some
restrictions possible if precipitation occurs. Winds generally
north to northwest around or below 10 kts.

Saturday... MainlyVFR with light north winds.

Marine
Conditions will remain below advisory levels for today through
tonight. There is a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms
which could temporarily lead to locally higher winds and waves.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Wednesday night... Conditions may approach advisory
levels, but are expected to remain generally below wave wind
thresholds. A chance of storms, with stronger winds and higher
waves possible in their proximity.

Thursday through Friday night... Sub-advisory winds seas
expected. A chance of storms through the period, with the best
chances gradually shifting southward through the period.

Saturday... Sub-advisory conditions expected. Cannot rule out
showers storms, especially off the delaware coast.

Rip currents...

with waves forecast at 2-3 foot and a 6-7 second period, along
with southerly winds 5-10 knots, the risk for dangerous rip
currents is low for today and tonight. Waves in the surf zone
will likely remain around 2-3 feet.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Wednesday for paz070-071-102-104-
106.

Nj... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Wednesday for njz015-017>019.

De... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Wednesday for dez001.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Cms
near term... Robertson meola
short term... Robertson
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms robertson
marine... Cms robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 14 mi64 min E 8.9 G 12 80°F 76°F1019.2 hPa (+0.5)
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 18 mi70 min NE 1.9 G 4.1 83°F 73°F1019.7 hPa
OCSM2 18 mi184 min 2 ft
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 26 mi74 min NE 3.9 G 5.8 81°F 82°F2 ft1018.7 hPa (+0.4)
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 28 mi94 min 1019.8 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 29 mi64 min E 8 G 15 83°F 78°F1018.6 hPa (+0.4)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 38 mi154 min ENE 1.9 85°F 1019 hPa73°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi70 min NE 8 G 9.9 87°F 85°F1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE13 mi70 minESE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F71°F59%1018.9 hPa
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD19 mi71 minE 510.00 miFair84°F73°F72%1019 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD24 mi70 minENE 610.00 miA Few Clouds89°F75°F63%1018.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGED

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1 day agoS8S7S9S6SE5S9S8SE4S5CalmS4CalmS5SW5SW5SW3SW4S4S4S5S6S6SW6S11
2 days agoE6E8E5S10S7S5S5S4SW4S3S3SW3CalmS6SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmSE3S3S6SE5SE8

Tide / Current Tables for Oak Orchard, Delaware
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Oak Orchard
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Tue -- 02:02 AM EDT     0.91 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:45 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:29 PM EDT     0.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:06 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.90.90.90.70.60.40.20.10.10.20.40.60.80.90.90.80.60.50.30.20.20.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:31 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:48 AM EDT     -1.22 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:43 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:45 AM EDT     1.18 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:55 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:12 PM EDT     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:07 PM EDT     1.12 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.3-0.3-0.8-1.1-1.2-1-0.50.20.71.11.20.90.5-0-0.6-0.9-1.1-1-0.6-00.50.91.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (13,3,4,5)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.