Thursday, July2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Long Neck, DE

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:31PM Thursday July 2, 2020 3:43 PM EDT (19:43 UTC) Moonrise 5:10PMMoonset 2:22AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ455 Coastal Waters From Cape Henlopen To Fenwick Island De Out 20 Nm- 101 Pm Edt Thu Jul 2 2020
This afternoon..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se late. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Fri..NW winds around 10 kt, becoming N in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming S late. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N late. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ400 101 Pm Edt Thu Jul 2 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Upper level low pressure will spin over the northeast states before departing late Friday. Meanwhile, surface high pressure builds in from the west. The high builds over the region this weekend before departing early in the new work week. A frontal system approaches by the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Neck, DE
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location: 38.58, -75.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 021356 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 956 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

SYNOPSIS. Upper level low pressure will spin over the Northeast states before departing late Friday. Meanwhile, surface high pressure builds in from the west. The high builds over the region this weekend before departing early in the new work week. A frontal system approaches by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. For the mid morning update, adjusted PoPs to start the mention of thunderstorms earlier given a relatively low convective temp depicted on the 12Z KOKX sounding. CAMs continue to show very isolated coverage of any convection, in large part due to limited synoptic scale lift and surface convergence. However, am concerned that lingering outflow boundaries from yesterdays storms and the sea breeze could serve as additional foci for convective initiation.

The closed upper low will finally begin pushing away from the area toward the south and east today. At the surface, weak low pressure will remain across New England with weak high pressure in place across the upper Midwest. Resulting surface flow will be northwesterly around 5 mph. Mainly clear skies are expected with some scattered cumulus developing toward the mid-afternoon hours, especially across New Jersey, once the boundary layer becomes well- mixed. An inland propagating sea breeze appears likely to develop this afternoon. It'll be a rather warm day across the area with high temperatures reaching to around 90 degrees outside of the higher terrain where temperatures solidly in the 80s are expected. While air temperatures will be reaching to around 90 degrees, dewpoints are forecast to mix down into the mid to low 60s, so it won't feel oppressively warm.

As the upper low begins departing during the afternoon, a northerly jet will pass to our east likely resulting in a brief period of meager forcing for convection aloft. With the lack of any substantial ridging in place and SBCAPE values rising to around 1000 J/kg in the eastern half of the forecast area, I suspect we will see a few showers and storms develop during the mid to late afternoon hours. CAM guidance supports the idea of isolated convection as well. The greatest chances for showers and storms will be across New Jersey and perhaps as far west as the Philly metro and Lehigh Valley areas. Regions of preexisting surface triggers such as the higher terrain of northwest New Jersey and the inland moving sea breeze will serve as more focused areas for convection. Steep low level lapse rates and modest amounts of dry air in the mid-levels will yield DCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg, so any of the stronger cells could be accompanied by locally gusty winds and perhaps some small hail. The kinematic profile will support pulsy single cell convection. Any convective activity will end quickly around sunset as instability wanes.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/. The upper low will be continuing to weaken as it moves away from the forecast area. Any afternoon and evening convection will be quickly diminishing during the 8-10 PM time frame. Some scattered mid-level clouds are likely to remain in place overnight, but overall it should be a pleasant and mild night with low temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Winds will be light and variable. Wouldn't be surprised to see some patchy fog develop in areas where rain falls this afternoon, but my confidence is not high enough to include a mention of this in the forecast at this time.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Upper level low will be off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Friday morning and will track out to sea during the day. Surface high pressure over the Midwest will slowly build east. Meanwhile, a back-door cold front will set up north of the region, and will drop south during the day.

Ahead of that front, a hot and humid airmass will be in place with highs topping off in the low to mid 90s, possibly in the upper 90s across portions of the urban corridor. Surface dew points will be in the upper 60s, which results in heat index values maxing out in the upper 90s to possibly near 100 along the urban corridor.

As that back door cold front drops south through the region, afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will develop from north to south. SPC has a Marginal risk for severe weather across the region for Friday.

Temperatures return back to normal for the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s, and temperatures will be upper 80s to low 90s for the first half of the new week.

Diurnally driven convection possible each day, and then another frontal system approaches for the middle of next week.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR with scattered clouds. Isolated showers, possibly with thunder, will develop across the region around 21Z through 00Z. Initially north winds around 5 kts will become more northwesterly after 18Z. A sea breeze will shift winds from northerly to southeasterly at ACY and possibly MIV around 18Z. High confidence on prevailing VFR, moderate confidence on shower development.

Tonight . VFR with a few lingering clouds. Winds light and variable. High confidence.

Outlook .

Friday through Saturday . Mostly VFR conditions, though localized MVFR conditions with low clouds on the overnight periods. Afternoon and early evening SHRA/TSRA possible. Low confidence.

Saturday night . Mainly VFR. Variable wind 6 knots or less. Moderate confidence.

Sunday and Monday . Mainly VFR. A chance of mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Southeast to south wind 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Today and tonight . Conditions are forecast to remain below advisory criteria through the period. Seas will be 1-2 feet across Delaware Bay and 2-3 feet across the ocean waters. Initially variable winds around 5 kts will shift southerly and increase to around 10 kts during the afternoon. Winds will then shift offshore into the overnight period.

Outlook .

Friday through Monday . A prolonged period of sub-SCA winds and seas on tap for the long term period. Afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms possible, with best chances on Friday.

Rip Currents .

Relatively light winds along with surf zone waves less than 2 feet will result in a low risk for rip currents today and Friday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Astronomical high tide levels will continue to rise as there will be a full moon this weekend. The evening high tides are over a foot higher than those in the morning.

Some spotty minor flooding is possible along the New Jersey and Delaware coasts this evening, and then a developing east to northeast wind may result in more widespread minor flooding around the evening high tide both Friday and Saturday. The minor flooding could work its way up Delaware Bay and into the tidal Delaware River, as well. Issues are not anticipated with the morning high tides.

Tidal flooding is not expected on the upper eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air until further notice due to damage to the antenna during the June 3 Derecho.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . MPS Near Term . Johnson/Staarmann Short Term . Staarmann Long Term . MPS Aviation . MPS/Staarmann Marine . MPS/Staarmann Tides/Coastal Flooding . Equipment .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 14 mi55 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 79°F 75°F1011.4 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 18 mi55 min E 5.1 G 9.9 78°F 80°F1012.5 hPa
OCSM2 18 mi163 min 2 ft
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 26 mi53 min 3 ft
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 28 mi55 min WSW 7 G 8 1011.5 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 29 mi55 min WSW 7 G 8 79°F 76°F1010.9 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi55 min NW 8.9 G 12 84°F 83°F1011.7 hPa

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE13 mi49 minN 710.00 miA Few Clouds90°F68°F48%1011.1 hPa
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD19 mi50 minESE 610.00 miFair81°F69°F67%1011.6 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD24 mi49 minN 910.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F64°F45%1011.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGED

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7E4E53CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalm3NE3NE76N8N10
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1 day agoNE6SE7SE7S5--S4SE3CalmCalmCalmW4SW4CalmCalmCalmW3Calm--4E44S10NE4N4
2 days agoN8NW755N3CalmCalmS4SW4SW4CalmNW3NW4NW4N3N5NE7NE8NE7E6NE7--E65

Tide / Current Tables for Oak Orchard, Delaware
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Oak Orchard
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:23 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:43 AM EDT     0.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:28 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:15 PM EDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.30.1000.20.50.70.90.90.80.60.40.30.1-000.20.50.811.11.11

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:24 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:03 AM EDT     1.46 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:08 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:35 AM EDT     -1.44 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:17 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:20 PM EDT     1.87 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:43 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.6-1.1-0.30.51.21.51.30.80.1-0.5-1-1.4-1.4-1-0.20.61.41.81.81.30.6-0.2-0.9-1.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.