Monday, April6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Long Neck, DE

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 7:32PM Monday April 6, 2020 1:45 AM EDT (05:45 UTC) Moonrise 4:54PMMoonset 5:05AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ455 Coastal Waters From Cape Henlopen To Fenwick Island De Out 20 Nm- 105 Am Edt Mon Apr 6 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am edt early this morning...
Rest of tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 12 seconds. A chance of showers.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 12 seconds.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the late evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 11 seconds.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 11 seconds. A chance of showers.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..W winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ400 105 Am Edt Mon Apr 6 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A weak cold front will cross the area this evening. High pressure will begin to build in later tonight and remain into Monday. A warm front will approach the area Tuesday as low pressure develops over the great lakes. This low will move north of the area during the midweek period. Another stronger low will cross new england during Thursday and Friday. Much colder air will move in for the late week and remain through next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Neck, DE
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location: 38.58, -75.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 060112 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 912 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front will cross the area this evening. High pressure will begin to build in later tonight and remain into Monday. A warm front will approach the area Tuesday as low pressure develops over the Great Lakes. This low will move north of the area during the midweek period. Another stronger low will cross New England during Thursday and Friday. Much colder air will move in for the late week and remain through next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. 815 pm update: Showers have developed to the west of the region late this afternoon and this evening and are generally well- simulated by most guidance this evening. Have fine-tuned the timing of the highest PoPs given the latest guidance and per recent radar trends. Biggest change was a general increase in chances between the I-78 and I-76 corridors and a general decrease outside of this zone. Also increased hourly temperatures this evening, as winds and sky cover have remain sufficiently elevated to prevent much of a drop-off. Notably, there are some exceptions to this, in the usual sheltered valley/rural locations.

Previous discussion .

A few light sprinkles or showers may move through portions of the area this afternoon into early evening in advance of an approaching cold front. A low pressure system located well north of our region in eastern Canada, will drag a weak cold front across our area tonight accompanied by some rain showers, mainly occurring overnight. Rainfall amounts look to be fairly light, with some areas maybe seeing up around a tenth of an inch. Precipitation will end from west to east, and should clear the coast by early Monday morning.

Increasing cloudiness will occur through this evening. With the rain moving through and cloudy skies, do not anticipate that temperatures will really drop off all that much and think it will remain relatively mild overnight. Only hitch in that thinking is how fast the dry air arrives behind the front, mainly across our northern and western most areas. Should the the dry air arrive sooner in those area, the skies will clear out pretty quickly and we could see a quick drop in temperatures right around daybreak. Temperatures overnight will generally range from the upper 30s across the north to the mid to upper 40s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/. 815 pm update: Will be updating the forecast shortly to decrease dew points a few degrees during the day. This will drop relative humidities to near/below 30 percent by afternoon. With winds possibly approaching 20 mph, fire-weather concerns are somewhat elevated in this post-frontal regime.

Previous discussion .

Any linger showers, mainly towards the coastal areas, should end fairly quickly Monday Morning. Skies will clear as high pressure builds across the region and dry air starts to overspread the forecast area in the northwest flow. With little cloud cover and plenty of sunshine, we should see temperatures rise into the 60s across the area with some 50s remaining across the higher elevations of the southern Poconos and portions of northwest New Jersey. With lighter winds through the day, a sea breeze may develop along the coast during the afternoon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. 815 pm update: Will be updating the forecast shortly to increase winds Wednesday through Friday, with much of the guidance suggesting frequent gusts 25 to 40 mph through much of the period. Advisory conditions may end up occurring during portions of this period. Confidence is high enough to begin increasing these values from consensus (which tends to keep winds dampened in the longer-range owing to increased model variability).

Previous discussion .

Monday night . The high pressure will be weakening across the area early, then a warm front will start to push its way into the region with low pressure well to the NW. Increasing clouds along with a slight chc for a shower expected Monday night. Overall, most areas will be dry. Lows will be seasonable with upper 30s/low 40s N/W and low/mid 40s elsewhere.

Tue/Wed . Low pressure will deepen and move north of the area. Increasing pops with a chance for tstms Wed afternoon. Much milder air arrives with the system with highs Tue in the 60s for most areas and 70s in many areas Wed. More humid air will overspread the region too. Mostly chc pops are in the grids for Tue and then some high chc/low likely pops for Tue night and into Wed.

The late week period will feature a sharp change in temperatures and unsettled conditions as low pressure deepens across New England and then passes into the North Atlantic. Although the models are offering some variety with regards to solutions, there is enough similarity to call for increased pops (Thu.), increasing winds and sharply colder air for Thu/Fri. Highs on Fri will be some 20 degrees colder than Wed's temps across the Middle Atlantic. The cool temps will likely persist into the weekend. Overnight lows may be cold enough for some frost/freeze concerns especially across the N/W areas.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Generally VFR ceilings. Scattered rain showers between about 03Z and 09Z may lower conditions to MVFR for a short time. Southwest to west wind 8 knots or less will become variable as a cold front moves across the area, before becoming north to northwest 5 to 10 knots after 06Z-10Z. High confidence.

Monday . VFR with scattered clouds. North to northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. The sea breeze front may reach KACY in the afternoon resulting in a wind shift to the southeast and south. High confidence.

Outlook .

Monday night . Mainly VFR. Variable wind 6 knots or less. High confidence.

Tuesday . Mainly VFR with a chance of showers. Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence.

Tuesday night . Conditions lowering to MVFR with showers becoming likely. Variable wind 6 knots or less. Medium confidence.

Wednesday . MVFR/VFR conditions. A chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms. Southwest wind around 10 knots, becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Winds could gust 20-25 knots during the day. Medium confidence.

Wednesday night . Generally MVFR conditions. Variable wind 6 knots or less. Medium confidence.

Thursday . Generally MVFR conditions with showers likely. Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Winds could gust 25-30 knots. Medium confidence.

Thursday night . Mainly VFR. Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Winds could gust 20-25 knots at times overnight. Medium confidence.

Friday . Mainly VFR. Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots. Winds could gust 25-30 knots. Medium confidence.

MARINE. Small Craft Advisory conditions continue on the area waters with seas in the 5 to 6 foot range. Seas will remain elevated through tonight, subsiding into Monday morning. The guidance has been too progressive of late with subsiding seas so we have decided to extend the Small Craft Advisory out on the ocean waters through 6AM. Seas look to subside from north to south and our coastal Delaware waters may linger a bit longer around 5 feet into Monday morning.

Winds are generally out of a southerly direction, favoring south to southwest around 10 to 15 knots. Winds will turn to the west and then northwest as a cold front cross the area waters tonight. Winds will remain around 10 to 15 knots on Monday and become northerly and then more easterly through the day.

Outlook . Monday night-Wednesday night . Generally sub-SCA conditions thru the period. Showery conditions Tue-Wed. A chance for tstms Wed afternoon.

Thursday-Friday . Winds and waves increase to at least SCA conditions. Winds may approach gale force Thursday night into Friday. Showers Thursday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Tidal departures continue to decrease this evening, and will decrease even further into the early part of the week. Therefore, no additional tidal issues are expected for the next several high tide cycles.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450>455.



Synopsis . O'Hara Near Term . CMS/Meola Short Term . CMS/Meola Long Term . CMS/O'Hara/Robertson Aviation . Iovino/Robertson Marine . Meola/O'Hara/Robertson Tides/Coastal Flooding . Iovino/Robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 14 mi45 min SW 8 G 13 54°F 50°F1016.7 hPa (-0.7)
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 18 mi51 min SSW 8 G 8.9 51°F 51°F1018.1 hPa
OCSM2 18 mi165 min 3 ft
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 26 mi55 min SSW 9.7 G 9.7 49°F 50°F6 ft1013.4 hPa (-0.4)
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 28 mi51 min SW 13 G 14 1016.9 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 29 mi45 min SSW 6 G 8 52°F 50°F1016.4 hPa (-0.6)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi45 min S 5.1 G 8.9 55°F 53°F1016.9 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE13 mi51 minSSW 610.00 miOvercast52°F43°F72%1016.8 hPa
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD19 mi52 minSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F46°F80%1017.3 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD24 mi51 minSSW 410.00 miOvercast51°F42°F71%1017.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGED

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4CalmCalmSW3SW4SW3S3SW54--66SW5SW7W8SW7W7SW4S5SW5S7S6SW6SW6
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N95NW7N5N4N4NE8NE8E10NE6NE5E10E6E6E44SE6S3SE3CalmSW3SW3SE3
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Tide / Current Tables for Oak Orchard, Delaware
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Oak Orchard
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:14 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:47 AM EDT     1.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:46 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:20 PM EDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.40.20-0.1-00.20.50.811.110.80.50.30.1-0.1-0.100.30.70.91.11.1

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:13 AM EDT     -1.64 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:58 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:57 AM EDT     1.89 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:15 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:47 PM EDT     -1.81 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:39 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:29 PM EDT     1.86 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:41 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.6-1.5-0.900.91.61.91.610.2-0.6-1.2-1.7-1.8-1.4-0.60.31.21.81.81.30.6-0.3-1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.