Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Long Neck, DE

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Into the evening, a cold front approaches from the west where it's presently kicking off some tstms across Wrn/Cntrl PA. The front will continue to move east and pass across our area this evening. We are only expected scattered showers/tstm activity with the front with only limited CAPE across the area. We'll keep the chance pops for the northern areas and keep thunder pops mostly slight. The SPC has maintained a marginal risk for our NW areas with perhaps damaging winds being the primary threat. Decent shear exists across the northern areas so while severe probabilities are low, they are not zero. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph into the evening.

Later tonight the cold front will have crossed the area and winds will shift to West then Northwest and become gusty for a few hours. After that. winds will settle to around 10 mph and clouds will diminish. Low temps tonight will range from the 40s for the NW areas to the low 60s for SE NJ and Delaware.

Sunday, high pressure builds down from the NW thru the day.
Fair weather is expected with mostly sunny skies. There maybe some mid level clouds for the afternoon. Breezy and cooler temps for Sunday with highs reaching the mid/upper 60s for the northern areas and low 70s for Philadelphia and south NJ. Winds will be mostly from the North at 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure will linger to the north Sunday night, with quiet conditions most likely. However, the weak easterly flow could produce a some low clouds, mist or drizzle. Lows in the 50s Delmarva up to Philly metro, 40s further north and east.

Southeasterly flow prevails on Monday as high pressure shifts east to our north and cold front approaches from the west. This will keep the region rather cool and may also cause any low clouds to linger. Highs warmest in the eastern shore of Maryland, low 70s, 60s rest of the region, except 50s Poconos and along the coast.

Cold front approaches from the west Monday night, but with the onshore flow possibly lingering, expect instability to be on the wane as any convection moves in, while best forcing heads north.
Thus, high end chance POPs north fade to near nothing southern Delaware. Lows near 60 central Delmarva, 50s most rest of region, 40s Poconos and possibly the immediate coast.

Cold front passes on Tuesday, helping dislodge the marine layer.
This should allow temps to jump up into the 70s to near 80, except 60s Poconos and coast. Only meager chance of any showers with the front itself.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure slowly builds in from the west Tuesday night, with partial clearing. Lows 50s I-95 south and east, 40s north and west.

High pressure continues gradually building east Wednesday, with warm and dry conditions under some sun. Highs mostly low 70s, except 60s Poconos and shore.

The high passes near overhead or just north Wednesday night, with quiet conditions continuing. Lows low 50s to upper 40s.

High shifts just east for Thursday, with some warming under partial sunshine. Highs mostly mid-upper 70s, except 60s coast.

Next system begins approaching from the west Thursday night, but only a slight chance of showers currently expected. Lows mostly 50s.

Chance of showers continues to slowly increase Friday on southwesterly flow ahead of the next system. Still warm, but clouds and any showers may hold temps back, with highs mainly mid 70s, 60s Poconos and coast.

Front looks like it stalls in the vicinity with a relatively high chance of showers Friday night thru Saturday, but just chance pops still. Lows 50s, highs low 70s.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This evening... VFR expected but a couple showers or a tstm are possible for the NW most areas. Limited confidence on whether they will affect KRDG/KABE but some VCSH was kept in the TAFs for those areas (and KTTN too). Low-end criteria LLWS developing too with 40 to 50 kts of SW flow aloft this evening. A cold front will cross the area 02Z/04Z mostly with winds shifting to W then NW. Medium confid overall.

Overnight... Winds continue to turn from W to NW following the cold front some gustiness during the frontal passage then winds diminish to around 10 kts. Clouds decrease from NW to SE.

Sunday... VFR conditions expected with just high clouds across the area. Gusty N/NW winds to 25 kts develop around 14Z/15Z time frame and persist into the afternoon. High confid.

Outlook...
Sunday night through Monday...Sub-VFR possible if persistent onshore flow causes low clouds or fog/mist/drizzle to develop.

Monday night...sub-VFR possible as passing showers may reduce cigs and vsby.

Tuesday through Thursday...VFR likely.

MARINE
Low end SCA conditions across the waters this afternoon will continue into the evening. Delaware Bay SCA will come down at 6PM but some gusts may remain close to 25 kts after that.
Limited chances for rain or tstms, but can't entirely be ruled out especially for the northern NJ waters. Winds shift overnight to W then NW and become gusty Sunday. Fair weather late tonight and Sunday.

Outlook...
Sunday night through Monday...no marine headlines expected.

Monday night into Tuesday...marginal SCA conditions possible with a passing cold front.

Tuesday night through Thursday...no marine headlines expected.

FIRE WEATHER
On Sunday, Min RH values will be 25-30% with northwest winds 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. This could result in a Special Weather Statement depending on fuel conditions, but no statements are currently planned.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430- 431.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ450>455.