Wednesday, July17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Long Neck, DE

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Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:26PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 6:20 AM EDT (10:20 UTC) Moonrise 8:10PMMoonset 5:20AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ455 Expires:201907172200;;775424 Fzus51 Kphi 171010 Cwfphi Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mount Holly Nj 610 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019 Sandy Hook Nj To Fenwick Island De To 20 Nm Offshore And Delaware Bay Anz454-455-172200- Coastal Waters From Cape May Nj To Cape Henlopen De Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Henlopen To Fenwick Island De Out 20 Nm- 610 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms. Areas of fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Areas of fog early in the morning. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of tstms early in the evening. A chance of showers until early morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the evening.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 610 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. The remnants of former tropical cyclone barry will cross the area later today into Thursday. High pressure will then generally prevail into the weekend although a weak cold front associated with a low in canada may cross the area Sunday. A more significant cold front will pass through the area early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Neck, DE
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location: 38.58, -75.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 171012
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
612 am edt Wed jul 17 2019

Synopsis
The remnants of former tropical cyclone barry will cross the
area later today into Thursday. High pressure will then
generally prevail into the weekend although a weak cold front
associated with a low in canada may cross the area Sunday. A
more significant cold front will pass through the area early
next week.

Near term through tonight
No significant changes to the forecast with this update. Will
tweak hourly grids based on latest surface observations.

There are several issues on tap for today. Behind a departing
warm front this morning, and then SW flow ushers an increasingly
hot and humid airmass into the northeast and mid-atlantic. High
temperatures will soar into the low to mid 90s with the highest
temperatures along the i-95 corridor and into southeast new
jersey and delmarva. Surface dewpoints climb well into the low
to mid 70s, and even into the upper 70s in parts of the eastern
shore of maryland due to flow off the chesapeake bay. Some
mixing is possible in the afternoon, but dewpoints would only
drop by a few degrees or so, and this really will not have much
of an effect on the heat index.

Max heat index values will approach 100 degrees across the
southern poconos, lehigh valley and far northern new jersey,
while MAX heat index values up to 105 are possible across
portions of southeast pennsylvania and most of new jersey. The
max heat index across parts of DELMARVA could be as high as 110.

Will keep existing heat advisories and excessive heat warnings
in place.

The other concern for today is that with the high heat and
humidity, surface-based CAPE values will range from 1000-2000
j kg, but could be higher in some spots. Pwats will be well in
excess of 2-2.5 inches, and with the approach of the remnants of
barry later today, this sets the stage for afternoon showers
and thunderstorms. There is not much 0-6 km bulk shear,
generally upwards of 20 kt, but with abundant moisture in place,
the primary threat will be heavy rain flash flooding, but
cannot rule out severe storms with damaging wind gusts.

Though convection begins in the afternoon, the most likely
threat for flash flooding and severe weather will be in the
evening, after 6 pm.

Short term Thursday
As has been the case in the last several months, the lowest
flash flood guidance values are across much of new jersey and
southeast pennsylvania, generally 1.5-2 inches in 1 hour, and as
high as 3 inches in 3 hours, and as high as 4 inches in 6
hours. Based on latest model QPF fields from the hrrr, NAM nest,
hi-res arw and hi-res nmm, think there will be spots that pick
up 3+ inches of QPF from late afternoon through this evening.

Even the href ensemble MAX qpf showing pockets of 3-5 inches of
rain.

Will go ahead and issue a flash flood watch starting in the
afternoon, but running through 1 am.

There is little consistency among the models as to where the
heaviest precip will fall, but think focus will be along the
i-95 corridor and areas west. For DELMARVA and southeast new
jersey, FFG values are quite a bit higher. Cannot rule out
flooding and flash flooding, but will hold off on the watch for
those areas.

Warm and muggy tonight with lows in the 70s and dewpoints not
much lower than the ambient air temperature. With the moisture
from the rainfall, can expect fog and low stratus to develop in
the wake of the showers and thunderstorms.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Synoptic overview: the long term period begins with both the
mid-lvl and lower lvl circulations associated with barry's
remnants having just crossed the area. An expansive h5 ridge
will then set up over the southern-tier of the us on Friday. The
ridge will remain in place until Sunday at which point a
shortwave trough digging from canada will act to split it. The
western half of the ridge will retrograde into the southwestern
us while the eastern half is pushed offshore into the atlantic.

A fairly healthy (by july standards) cold front associated with
the shortwave's surface reflection will cross the area Monday
into Tuesday.

The main story of the extended continues to be the potential
for excessive heat Friday through Sunday. Fortunately it appears
that beginning early next week the overall synoptic pattern
will become characterized by longwave troughing over the eastern
us. This pattern would favor a more mild end of july.

Dailies:
Thursday... Although deep-layer moisture and dynamic lift will
decrease on Thursday as barry's remnants begin to pull away,
sufficient lingering moisture and instability should be
sufficient for continued showers and thunderstorms. Think the
overall flash flood and severe threats will be lower during the
day on Thursday given the lower moisture instability parameters
and modest height rises behind the departing shortwave. Thursday
will also be a bit cooler than any of the days surrounding it
due to considerable cloud cover precipitation, and generally
think highs will struggle to reach 90. That being said heat
indices could still very well top out near 100 in portions of
the urban corridor as dewpoints remain elevated with somewhat
inhibited mixing due to the aforementioned cloud cover.

Friday Saturday... Friday will be hot and Saturday will be very
hot as the ridge builds to our sw. Heat indices will generally
be in the 100-105 degree range on Friday, while on Saturday
105-110 readings will be common (with locally higher values even
possible). The only real uncertainty is how efficiently
dewpoints can mix down in the afternoons, but regardless
dangerous heat seems like a certainty. Additionally lows in the
upper 70s to low 80s Saturday and Sunday mornings will not help
with any recovery. Kept pops below mentionable both Friday and
Saturday although can't totally rule out some weakly-forced
diurnal storms (e.G. Sea breeze or terrain related).

Sunday... A weak cold front may sneak by the area early Sunday
which will result in temperatures slightly cooler than Saturday,
but still very warm i.E. Heat indices topping out in the
100-105 range. As the ridge flattens and shortwave energy
approaches from the west the chance of showers and thunderstorms
also increases.

Monday Tuesday... The main cold front looks to cross the area
in this time frame and will likely be accompanied by some
precipitation given its dynamic support (an amplifying trough
and southward sagging upper jet). Temperatures Monday are a bit
uncertain and will depend largely on frontal precipitation
timing, however generally think they will top out below any heat
advisory criteria. By Tuesday generally expect high
temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints dropping down into the 60s
with this more mild airmass likely sticking around a bit.

Aviation 10z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... MainlyVFR. Shra tsra possible this afternoon, first at
krdg kabe, then south towards kttn kpne kphl. MVFR or lower
conditions in shra tsra, and tsra will be capable of torrential
rain and strong wind gusts. Winds otherwise SW 5-109 kt, except
at kacy kmiv kilg, where afternoon sea breezes could turn winds
to more of a southerly direction.

Tonight... MVFR or lower in shra tsra through around 06z, then
MVFR or lower in fog stratus. SW winds 5-10 kt, becoming
lgt vrb.

Outlook...

Thursday... Frequent showers and a chance of thunderstorms will
bring a chance of lower CIGS vsbys at times. Possibly some
patchy fog Thursday night. Winds generally 5 kts or less.

Friday through Sunday... MostlyVFR with winds generally
southwesterly westerly 5-10 kts. Some showers and thunderstorms
possible on Sunday.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions on tap for today and tonight with seas
generally around 2-3 feet and SW winds 10-15 kts gusting to 20
kts or less.

This afternoon and tonight, showers and thunderstorms will move
into the waters and could produce locally strong winds, higher
seas, and reduced visibilities.

Outlook...

sub-sca conditions are expected through Sunday winds favoring a
southerly southwesterly direction 10-15 kts and seas generally
3 feet or less. Thunderstorms Thursday may produce locally
higher winds and seas.

Rip currents...

there is a high risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents at the new jersey beaches this afternoon and a moderate
risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at delaware
beaches today.

Southwest winds become south this afternoon at 15-20 kt with
long period swells. Additionally, low tide will occur during mid
to late afternoon. Given these factors plus the proximity to
the full moon, feel the risk will be higher in new jersey where
shoreline orientation is more favorable.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late
tonight for paz060>062-070-071-101>106.

Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for paz101-103-105.

Excessive heat warning until 10 pm edt Sunday for paz070-071-
102-104-106.

Nj... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late
tonight for njz001-007>010-012-013-015>019.

Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for njz009-010-012-013-016-020>022-027.

High rip current risk from 11 am edt this morning through this
evening for njz014-024>026.

Excessive heat warning until 10 pm edt Sunday for njz015-
017>019.

De... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late
tonight for dez001.

Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for dez002-003.

Excessive heat warning until 10 pm edt Sunday for dez001.

Md... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late
tonight for mdz008.

Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for mdz008-012-015-019-020.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Carr
near term... Mps
short term... Mps
long term... Carr
aviation... Carr mps
marine... Carr mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 14 mi51 min SW 5.1 G 8 79°F 70°F1015.9 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 18 mi57 min WSW 8.9 G 9.9 81°F 78°F1016.9 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 26 mi31 min SSW 9.7 G 12 77°F 74°F2 ft1016 hPa (-0.5)
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 28 mi69 min 1016.2 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 29 mi51 min S 5.1 G 7 77°F 74°F1015.6 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi57 min 80°F 85°F1015.7 hPa

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE13 mi27 minSSW 510.00 miFair78°F73°F87%1016.1 hPa
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD19 mi28 minSW 710.00 miFair80°F75°F85%1016.3 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD24 mi27 minS 58.00 miFair77°F73°F90%1016.2 hPa

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS3S5SW64W7SW85W4S9W7SW8S10S8S5SW3SW5S4S4SW4S4S5SW3S5
1 day agoN3NE6NE6NE7NE7N844NW6CalmCalm4SE6S4SE3SE4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW3W4NW35NW6NW7SW8W7NW7W10
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Tide / Current Tables for Oak Orchard, Delaware
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Oak Orchard
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Wed -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:19 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:44 AM EDT     0.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:20 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:57 PM EDT     1.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.90.70.50.30.1-000.20.50.70.80.90.80.60.50.30.20.10.10.30.60.81

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
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Wed -- 02:20 AM EDT     -1.46 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:32 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:09 AM EDT     1.19 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:07 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:23 PM EDT     -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT     1.52 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:26 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-1.2-1.4-1.4-1-0.40.30.91.21.10.70.1-0.5-0.9-1.1-1-0.6-00.61.21.51.410.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (6,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.