Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Long Neck, DE

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 7:50PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 8:11 PM EDT (00:11 UTC) Moonrise 10:08PMMoonset 10:50AM Illumination 62% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ455 Expires:201908221015;;003605 Fzus51 Kphi 212228 Cwfphi Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mount Holly Nj 628 Pm Edt Wed Aug 21 2019 Sandy Hook Nj To Fenwick Island De To 20 Nm Offshore And Delaware Bay Anz454-455-221015- Coastal Waters From Cape May Nj To Cape Henlopen De Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Henlopen To Fenwick Island De Out 20 Nm- 628 Pm Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 am edt Thursday... S winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms until early morning, then a slight chance of showers and tstms late.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Showers likely with a chance of tstms until early morning, then a chance of showers and tstms late.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun night..NE winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 628 Pm Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front extended from low pressure in southwestern quebec to the middle mississippi river valley this afternoon. The boundary will progress slowly to the southeast. It is forecast to move into our region on Thursday night before drifting to our south on Friday. High pressure is expected to follow for the weekend. The high should gradually lose its influence over our weather during the early and middle parts of the new week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Neck, DE
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location: 38.58, -75.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 212239
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
639 pm edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
A cold front extended from low pressure in southwestern quebec
to the middle mississippi river valley this afternoon. The
boundary will progress slowly to the southeast. It is forecast
to move into our region on Thursday night before drifting to our
south on Friday. High pressure is expected to follow for the
weekend. The high should gradually lose its influence over our
weather during the early and middle parts of the new week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Heat indices have dropped below heat advisory thresholds, thus,
the advisory has been dropped across the area.

Severe threat has also dissipated with earlier convection along
and west of i-95, so the severe thunderstorm watch has been
cancelled for these areas. Instability remains somewhat strong
with MUCAPE values still in excess of 1000-2000 j kg across nj
and delmarva, thus, the watch continues mainly east of i-95.

Shear has been relatively meager this afternoon. The weakening
of the shortwave trough that has moved into the area out of the
great lakes has also deamplified, which has resulted in less
directional shear than what much of the guidance was suggesting
earlier this morning. This may be what is hindering the severe
threat this afternoon and evening.

Damaging winds will continue to be the main threat across this
area, although there will be a threat for hail with a fair
amount of CAPE above the freezing level. Another concern this
afternoon will be the potential for heavy rainfall. Pw values
remain 1.75-2.00 inches, so any thunderstorm will be efficient
rain producers.

Things will settle down overnight. The second half of the
overnight looks dry. Temperatures will fall back into the mid
60s to mid 70s depending on location. Some patchy fog is
possible, especially across those locales that see any rain into
the evening hours.

Winds will become less than 10 mph and veer to the west.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
As a result of the winds veering to the west (at least 1st half
of day), dewpoints are forecast to be a few degrees lower
tomorrow. And with the lower dewpoints, we are seeing lower
apparent temperatures. The i-95 corridor and nj coastal plain
will see apparent temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. The
delmarva will see apparent temperatures around 100. While it
will still be quite hot, these values are below heat advisory
criteria. We will not issue an advisory at this time. Actual air
temperatures are forecast to be around 80 across the poconos,
the upper 80s across berks and the lehigh valley, around 90
across the i95 corridor and coastal plain, and in the mid to
upper 80s near the ocean.

A cold front will be knocking on our doorstep tomorrow morning.

By days end, it should be slowly working across east central pa
and northern nj. A weak low could be riding along the front as
we head into the evening hours. With better forcing tomorrow,
more organized precipitation is possible. Per the SPC convective
outlook, at this time, the area remains under a marginal risk.

Per wpc, the area remains under a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall.

Winds should be 10 mph or less for most tomorrow. While they
are expected to turn more westerly tonight, they should back to
southwest again tomorrow afternoon as the cold front approaches.

Of course, winds could be stronger in and in the vicinity of
storms.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
The cold front approaching from the northwest is forecast to
move into our region on Thursday evening. Showers and
thunderstorms ahead of and with the front will produce locally
heavy rain on Thursday evening. Also, there remains a chance for
isolated strong wind gusts and hail.

As the cold front settles in our region on Thursday night,
showers and thunderstorms will linger. However, the potential
for heavy rain, strong wind gusts and hail should diminish from
northwest to southeast as conditions stabilize somewhat.

The front is expected to be across the DELMARVA region on
Friday morning, and it should continue to sink slowly to the
south. We will continue to mention a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for Friday, especially from the philadelphia
metropolitan area southward.

High pressure is expected to be centered in ontario on Friday
night. The high should build east and southeastward over the
weekend, bringing dry weather and cooler temperatures to our
region. A northeast to east flow is forecast to develop by
Sunday. While some of the guidance is showing some spotty light
precipitation for Sunday, it may be a case where the effects of
the trajectory off the ocean are overdone. Perhaps the indicated
moisture will only manifest itself in the form of some cloud
cover.

As the high moves farther away from our region, a trailing
surface ridge to the lee of the appalachians is expected to
narrow on Monday before gradually losing its influence over our
weather on Tuesday and Wednesday. Guidance consensus regarding
the timing and coverage of any precipitation during the early
and middle parts of the new week is lacking. As a result, we
have included only a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
evening, especially for miv and acy as a line of thunderstorms
pushes east through the early overnight. Lower ceilings and
vsbys are possible with any shower or thunderstorm. In addition,
patchy fog may develop overnight, especially where rainfall
occurs during the afternoon and evening hours. A mix ofVFR and
MVFR conditions are expected through daybreak.

Thursday... MainlyVFR, though brief restrictions may occur in
morning fog and afternoon showers storms. West to southwest
winds up to 10 kt are expected.

Outlook...

Thursday evening... Showers and thunderstorms with MVFR and ifr
conditions. The rain may be heavy at times. Southwest to west
wind 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday night... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms with locally MVFR and ifr conditions. Northwest
wind 5 to 10 knots.

Friday... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms,
mainly from the kphl area southward. Northwest wind 5 to 10
knots.

Friday night... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms around kilg, kmiv and kacy. North wind 10 knots or
less.

Saturday... MainlyVFR. North to northeast wind 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday night... MainlyVFR. Northeast wind 10 knots or less.

Sunday... MainlyVFR. Northeast to east wind around 10 knots.

Sunday night... MainlyVFR. Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots.

Monday... MainlyVFR. Northeast to east wind around 10 knots.

Marine
Tonight... A SCA is in effect through 10 pm on the lower de bay
and through 4 am on the ocean. Winds are expected to gust to 25
kt. Seas are expected to build up to 4 feet. Both winds and seas
will diminish the second half of the night.

Thursday... Sub-sca conditions are expected.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Saturday night... No marine headlines are
anticipated.

Sunday through Monday... A northeasterly wind 15 to 20 knots
with gusts around 25 knots should cause wave heights on our
ocean waters to build to 5 or 6 feet.

Rip currents...

with winds 15-20 knots on the ocean, and seas building to 4-5
feet with a period of 6-8 seconds, the rip current remains
moderate for new jersey, but low for delaware.

Similar conditions are anticipated for Thursday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Thursday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for anz431.

Synopsis... Iovino
near term... Davis kruzdlo
short term... Kruzdlo
long term... Iovino
aviation... Davis iovino kruzdlo
marine... Davis iovino kruzdlo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 14 mi71 min SSW 7 G 12 79°F 74°F1012.2 hPa (-0.7)
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 18 mi77 min SSW 9.9 G 12 75°F 73°F1013.2 hPa
OCSM2 18 mi191 min 2 ft
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 26 mi81 min S 18 G 19 79°F 80°F4 ft1012.3 hPa (-1.2)
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 28 mi71 min 1012.2 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 29 mi71 min SSE 12 G 17 76°F 78°F1011.6 hPa (-1.0)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 38 mi101 min S 9.9 86°F 1012 hPa73°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi77 min S 8 G 11 83°F 85°F1011.8 hPa

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE13 mi77 minS 910.00 miFair79°F73°F82%1012.1 hPa
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD19 mi18 minSW 810.00 miFair77°F75°F94%1012.6 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD24 mi77 minS 610.00 miA Few Clouds79°F75°F88%1012.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGED

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmSW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E7E8SE7E8SE8E7--W5CalmCalmE3
2 days agoSE4S5CalmS4CalmS5SW5SW5SW3SW4S4S4S5S6S6SW6S11W10E15
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Tide / Current Tables for Oak Orchard, Delaware
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Oak Orchard
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Wed -- 02:41 AM EDT     0.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:17 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:06 PM EDT     0.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:47 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.80.80.90.80.70.50.30.20.10.10.30.50.70.80.90.90.80.60.40.30.20.20.3

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:08 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:24 AM EDT     -1.13 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:16 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:23 AM EDT     1.19 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:34 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:57 PM EDT     -1.04 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:54 PM EDT     1.03 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.60.1-0.5-0.9-1.1-1.1-0.8-0.20.50.91.21.10.80.3-0.2-0.7-1-1-0.9-0.50.10.60.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.