Wednesday, August5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Southampton, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:03PM Wednesday August 5, 2020 12:52 PM EDT (16:52 UTC) Moonrise 9:25PMMoonset 7:34AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ005 1012 Am Edt Wed Aug 5 2020
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. A cold front is expected to slide across the waters tonight. High pres will build back toward the region late Wed night and remain across the region into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southampton, NY
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location: 38.69, -71.39     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 051418 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1018 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front will linger near the region through this evening. The front then shifts offshore tonight and then stalls on Thursday as high pressure builds across the northeast. Weak waves of low pressure will move along the stalled front through Saturday. High pressure should return on Sunday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Some low clouds and fog along the south fork of Long Island mixing out and will likely be gone in the next hour or so, otherwise forecast remains on track.

A dry and warm day is in store for today. A weak frontal boundary will remain near the region, but the atmosphere is dry and no precipitation is expected. Skies should be mostly sunny with highs in the middle and upper 80s. Dew points starting in the upper 60s and low 70s will mix out a bit with heating of the day and W/SW flow. Dew points will stay highest near the coast where the flow becomes more southerly in the afternoon with sea breezes.

Dangerous rip currents are likely at the ocean beaches through this evening.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/. The weak front moves to the south and offshore tonight and will stall into Thursday as high pressure builds over the northeast. The region will be sandwiched between the Western Atlantic ridge and a relatively broad upper trough from the Great Lakes down into the Gulf States. Disturbances within SW flow aloft are progged to move within the southwest flow aloft into Thursday. Waves of low pressure are likely to develop along the stalled front. While middle and upper level moisture increase on Thursday, the low levels remain dry due to the proximity of the surface high. Have elected to keep the forecast dry during the daytime on Thursday. Highs will be a bit below seasonal averages, generally in the low 80s.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches on Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. The stalled front will likely lift northward on Thursday night into Friday. This is due to the upper trough axis approaching the eastern seaboard. The models continue to differ on precipitation development across the region due to the proximity of the surface high. The bulk of the lift and precipitation may remain just offshore, closest to the frontal boundary and axis of deeper moisture. There has been a trend in the guidance for some of this moisture to push close to Long Island, so have bumped PoPs up a bit across the region. Have included mention of thunder, but instability is marginal. Any showers associated with the frontal wave should diminish Friday night with a return to dry conditions on Saturday as the upper trough axis shifts east, pushing the deeper moisture and front further offshore. Clouds and possible showers will hold high temperatures down in the low 80s.

Heights generally rise this weekend as broad ridging builds across the southern and central US. This signals the beginning of a warming trend with temperatures in the middle and upper 80s Sunday into Monday. Humidity levels will also increase as dew points rise into the upper 60s and possibly low 70s early next week.

There may be weak shortwaves along the periphery of the ridge early next week, which could provide the next chance for showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A cold front drifts south of Long Island tonight.

VFR thru the TAF period. W to SSW winds today, becoming N tngt. Speeds generally blw 10 kt. Some variability in wind direction possible due to the proximity of the front and the light flow.

. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Thursday-Saturday. Mainly VFR, isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms at times with locally MVFR conditions. Sunday. Mainly VFR.

MARINE. Waves will gradually subside on the ocean today. A SCA remains in effect due to these elevated seas. Elsewhere, winds and waves blw SCA lvls.

A broad area of high pressure will then build into the region thru the weekend. This will keep winds and seas blw SCA lvls thru the period on all the waters.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected into early next week.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353-355.



SYNOPSIS . DS NEAR TERM . DS/DW SHORT TERM . DS LONG TERM . DS AVIATION . JMC/IRD MARINE . JMC HYDROLOGY . DS EQUIPMENT . //


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY162 mi60 minSW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F69°F65%1017.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE15
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--SW8SW5SW8SW7CalmSE3S3CalmCalm----SE5SE7SE9SE8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.