Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Southampton, NY
March 28, 2024 11:31 AM EDT (15:31 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:38 AM Sunset 7:13 PM Moonrise 10:41 PM Moonset 7:59 AM |
ANZ094
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ANZ005 952 Am Edt Thu Mar 28 2024
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm - Low pres approaches this afternoon and tracks S of the waters Fri, then exits across the maritimes Sat through Sun. High pres crosses the region Mon.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 281430 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1030 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure develops along the Carolina coast today, then tracks up the Atlantic and east of the region on Friday. The low reaches the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday. High pressure briefly returns Sunday before another low pressure system impacts the region Monday through Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to temperature and dew points to reflect the most recent observations.
Periods of rain expected through the day. Deep lift expected with the jet in a favorable position. Heaviest rain will be for the central and eastern portions of the CWA based on the trajectory of the moisture plume on water vapor and the modeling which was in good agreement.
A coastal low south of the area is modeled to gradually deepen through the day, dropping about 10-15 mb by 6Z Fri. The low will begin to get better organized by 12Z Fri as the northern stream trough fuels development, but at this point the low should be E of the benchmark.
Used NBM pops for the timing of the back edge of the rain tonight. If the track and timing holds, W of the Hudson would be dry by midnight. The rain hangs on a little longer eastern zones, particularly the Twin Forks, but there is little evidence in the 00Z runs of significant wraparound pcpn with the low, at least for our CWA
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
The low deepens significantly on Fri as it tracks towards the Maritimes. Deep mixing on nwly flow will produce a windy day.
Although not extreme, there could be some gusts to around 35-40 mph with winds in the 25-35kt range thru h85. Some high based cu is modeled in both the NAM and GFS due to steep low and mid lvl lapse rates.
Breezy near the coasts Fri ngt as the flow aloft strengthens, but the cooling bl will be a limiting factor. Temps in the 30s per the NBM which was used.
Dry to start on Sat then there is a chance for some light rain by late aftn and Sat ngt. There is still some uncertainty as the clipper type low is too far S in the GFS to produce pcpn. The ECMWF and NAM are the wetter solns. Pops about 20 percent for this event attm. The NBM was followed for temps.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
No significant changes in the long term period. Zonal flow become reestablished Sunday night and yet another upper trough and surface frontal system will be quickly approaching for Monday. Initially, a warm front will move toward the area Monday, and then the associated low will move slowly eastward into the region Tuesday and Wednesday. With near seasonal temperatures through much of the extended period, except slightly above for Saturday and Sunday, all liquid precipitation is expected. And NBM temperatures looked reasonable through the extended and were used.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A cold front slowly approaches tonight from the west. A wave of low pressure then advances along it from the south today and tonight.
IFR cigs are expected for much of the day today with rain, however can not rule out period where conditions improve for a short time. Improvement to MVFR is possible late this afternoon for the NYC terminals and terminals to the north and west, becoming more likely toward 00Z Fri. A return to VFR is expected overnight. Rain tapers off late tonight.
Winds will remain fairly light and a bit variable in direction at around 5 kt into early afternoon. Winds then shift to the NNW and increase to near 10 kt for this afternoon. NNW winds further increase to 10 to 15 kt tonight. Gusts develop toward 00Z Fri, upwards of 20 to 25 kt tonight.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low chance LIFR at JFK could last until 16Z. High confidence cigs at JFK stay at or below 700 ft before 17Z.
Timing of category changes may be off by several hours.
Amendments likely for changing flight categories.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: Any left over MVFR conditions, becoming VFR in the afternoon. Slight chance of rain early for KISP and KGON. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.
Saturday: Mainly VFR during the day. Chance of showers and MVFR at night, possibly mixed with snow for KSWF. W-NW wind gusts 20-25 kt day. Gusts diminish at night.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening.
Monday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
A sca remains in effect for the cntrl and ern ocean today for 5 ft seas. Wind will otherwise be lgt, but pick up tngt on all waters as low pres develops. A sca for the protected waters and a gale watch for the ocean remain in effect for tngt. Winds were too mrgnl to convert the watch to a warning attm.
For Fri into Sat, solid sca cond expected. There is a chc for gales Fri and Fri ngt, but it is too mrgnl attm to go with a watch.
A light flow is expected Sunday through Monday as high pressure moves through the forecast waters and conditions remain below advisory levels across the forecast waters.
HYDROLOGY
Up to 2 inches of additional rain is expected through tonight across the ern half of the region. Around an inch or less is expected elsewhere. No significant hydrologic impacts are expected, unless the 2 inch axis of heavy rain shifts significantly W into the more flood prone areas of the HSA.
Otherwise, no hydrologic impacts are anticipated into the middle of next week.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353.
Gale Watch from 6 PM EDT this evening through late tonight for ANZ350-353-355.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1030 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure develops along the Carolina coast today, then tracks up the Atlantic and east of the region on Friday. The low reaches the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday. High pressure briefly returns Sunday before another low pressure system impacts the region Monday through Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to temperature and dew points to reflect the most recent observations.
Periods of rain expected through the day. Deep lift expected with the jet in a favorable position. Heaviest rain will be for the central and eastern portions of the CWA based on the trajectory of the moisture plume on water vapor and the modeling which was in good agreement.
A coastal low south of the area is modeled to gradually deepen through the day, dropping about 10-15 mb by 6Z Fri. The low will begin to get better organized by 12Z Fri as the northern stream trough fuels development, but at this point the low should be E of the benchmark.
Used NBM pops for the timing of the back edge of the rain tonight. If the track and timing holds, W of the Hudson would be dry by midnight. The rain hangs on a little longer eastern zones, particularly the Twin Forks, but there is little evidence in the 00Z runs of significant wraparound pcpn with the low, at least for our CWA
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
The low deepens significantly on Fri as it tracks towards the Maritimes. Deep mixing on nwly flow will produce a windy day.
Although not extreme, there could be some gusts to around 35-40 mph with winds in the 25-35kt range thru h85. Some high based cu is modeled in both the NAM and GFS due to steep low and mid lvl lapse rates.
Breezy near the coasts Fri ngt as the flow aloft strengthens, but the cooling bl will be a limiting factor. Temps in the 30s per the NBM which was used.
Dry to start on Sat then there is a chance for some light rain by late aftn and Sat ngt. There is still some uncertainty as the clipper type low is too far S in the GFS to produce pcpn. The ECMWF and NAM are the wetter solns. Pops about 20 percent for this event attm. The NBM was followed for temps.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
No significant changes in the long term period. Zonal flow become reestablished Sunday night and yet another upper trough and surface frontal system will be quickly approaching for Monday. Initially, a warm front will move toward the area Monday, and then the associated low will move slowly eastward into the region Tuesday and Wednesday. With near seasonal temperatures through much of the extended period, except slightly above for Saturday and Sunday, all liquid precipitation is expected. And NBM temperatures looked reasonable through the extended and were used.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A cold front slowly approaches tonight from the west. A wave of low pressure then advances along it from the south today and tonight.
IFR cigs are expected for much of the day today with rain, however can not rule out period where conditions improve for a short time. Improvement to MVFR is possible late this afternoon for the NYC terminals and terminals to the north and west, becoming more likely toward 00Z Fri. A return to VFR is expected overnight. Rain tapers off late tonight.
Winds will remain fairly light and a bit variable in direction at around 5 kt into early afternoon. Winds then shift to the NNW and increase to near 10 kt for this afternoon. NNW winds further increase to 10 to 15 kt tonight. Gusts develop toward 00Z Fri, upwards of 20 to 25 kt tonight.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low chance LIFR at JFK could last until 16Z. High confidence cigs at JFK stay at or below 700 ft before 17Z.
Timing of category changes may be off by several hours.
Amendments likely for changing flight categories.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: Any left over MVFR conditions, becoming VFR in the afternoon. Slight chance of rain early for KISP and KGON. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.
Saturday: Mainly VFR during the day. Chance of showers and MVFR at night, possibly mixed with snow for KSWF. W-NW wind gusts 20-25 kt day. Gusts diminish at night.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening.
Monday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
A sca remains in effect for the cntrl and ern ocean today for 5 ft seas. Wind will otherwise be lgt, but pick up tngt on all waters as low pres develops. A sca for the protected waters and a gale watch for the ocean remain in effect for tngt. Winds were too mrgnl to convert the watch to a warning attm.
For Fri into Sat, solid sca cond expected. There is a chc for gales Fri and Fri ngt, but it is too mrgnl attm to go with a watch.
A light flow is expected Sunday through Monday as high pressure moves through the forecast waters and conditions remain below advisory levels across the forecast waters.
HYDROLOGY
Up to 2 inches of additional rain is expected through tonight across the ern half of the region. Around an inch or less is expected elsewhere. No significant hydrologic impacts are expected, unless the 2 inch axis of heavy rain shifts significantly W into the more flood prone areas of the HSA.
Otherwise, no hydrologic impacts are anticipated into the middle of next week.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353.
Gale Watch from 6 PM EDT this evening through late tonight for ANZ350-353-355.
Airport Reports
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