Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Southampton, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 4:25PM Friday December 6, 2019 9:02 AM EST (14:02 UTC) Moonrise 2:36PMMoonset 2:04AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ005 625 Am Est Fri Dec 6 2019
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. Low pres will track S of the waters this evening. High pres will build across the region later Sat through Sun. A warm front will cross the region later Sun night through early Mon. Low pres will track nw of the waters Tue.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southampton, NY
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location: 38.69, -71.39     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 061156 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 656 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. A surface ridge quickly exits to the east this morning, while a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes. The cold front passes through the area this evening. High pressure will follow for Saturday and then build offshore on Sunday. A frontal system will impact the area for the beginning of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Minor adjustments made to forecast with this update to account for latest obs and trends.

A northern stream shortwave trough will send low pressure over the Great Lakes this morning quickly east, passing to the north late this afternoon into early this evening and dragging a cold front through the region. Ahead of the front, a tightening pressure gradient behind departing high pressure will result in a gusty SW flow by afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph will be possible along the immediate coast, especially across eastern LI.

Limited moisture and upper dynamics will result in a mainly dry frontal passage, but a shower can not be ruled out, especially across eastern LI and SE CT as the boundary interacts with more moisture. Any showers will be brief with less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall.

For the most part, the day will be cloudy with temperatures in the upper 30s to the mid 40s, which is right around normal.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/. Cold front passes through early this evening along the coast with a brief shower possible, otherwise conditions will be dry with a gusty NW flow the first half of the night.

The gusty winds will keep temperatures from dropping too much below normal, with lows by daybreak Saturday ranging from the mid 20s across the interior, to the around 30 at the coast.

High pressure builds in from the west on Saturday with diminishing NW winds and cold conditions. Highs will be about ten degrees below normal in the 30s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. The center of high pressure will move over the area Saturday night. This will mean light winds and mainly clear skies, leading to a pretty good radiational cooling night, especially in the outlying areas as usual. Went a couple of degrees below guidance for Saturday night, and several degrees below for Pine Barrens of Long Island. Lows will be in the 10s and 20s.

Thereafter, the forecast area will be on a warming trend as the center of high pressure moves offshore Sunday morning. Veering winds in forecast soundings as a warm front lifts well north of the area will mean warm advection for Sunday and highs warmer than Saturday, but still below normal for this time of year, ranging from the middle 30s inland, to the middle 40s along the coast.

A complex frontal system will impact the area at the beginning of the new work week as an upper level shortwave over the Northern Rockies dives south into the mid-West Sunday into Monday, which phases with a southern stream system Monday night into Tuesday, inducing a surface low that tracks over the Great Lakes and then into southeastern Canada into Tuesday. This will allow a cold front to approach through Tuesday. That will mean a continued southerly flow and progressively warmer temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. By Tuesday, highs will be well above normal, in the 50s region-wide. There is a slight chance that some precipitation moves in early Sunday night for western sections of the forecast area. If it does, it may be cold enough for a wintry mix, including some freezing rain across the Lower Hudson Valley. However, it is too far out at this time for any certainty in precipitation types, and if it does occur, it is expected to be brief. From late Sunday night through Tuesday, it should be warm enough for plain rain for the entire forecast area.

There is the potential for moderate to heavy rain from Monday through Monday night as there looks to be a sub-tropical connection south of the high that comes up northward on its west side. From Sunday night through Tuesday night, both the ECMWF and the GFS have over 2 inches of rainfall across portions of the area, with a widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall for the entire forecast area. PWATs of over an inch are also noted in the GFS (as well as NAM coming up the east coast Sunday night). There is still a great deal of uncertainty with where the heaviest rain would actually set up and with the timing. The one good thing is that this will be a long duration event.

The cold front pushes offshore Tuesday night, ushering in a colder air mass for Wednesday, with highs in the 30s to around 40.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. VFR as high pressure settles south early this morning. A cold front will pass this evening.

Fairly high confidence in winds backing SW and increasing to 10-15G20-25kt this afternoon. Timing of fropa roughly 00Z NYC metros and 01Z-02Z east, with winds shifting WNW at first and then right of 310 mag toward midnight.

. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. The afternoon haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. The afternoon haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. The afternoon haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Saturday and Sunday. VFR. Sunday night and Monday. Rain showers likely with MVFR or lower conditions. Tuesday. MVFR or IFR in rain, with conditions improving late at night.

MARINE. A gale warning remains in effect for the ocean waters with SCA conditions elsewhere. Gusts of 25 to 35 kt are expected this afternoon into tonight, diminishing to below SCA toward daybreak Saturday.

There will be a brief respite in winds early this morning before ramping back up quickly late this morning into this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front passes through the waters this evening.

Wind and seas diminish late tonight into Saturday as high pressure builds in from the west.

Winds may briefly reach 25 kt Sunday night on the ocean waters. An approaching frontal system will allow southerly flow to increase late Monday morning into the afternoon, with gusts 25-35 kt into Monday night for all coastal waters except the western sound and harbor. Winds diminish late Monday night, with 25 kt gusts still possible over the waters through the day Tuesday.

Waves will remain below 5 ft through Sunday night, but build to 5 ft on the ocean waters by late Monday morning/early Monday afternoon. Waves continue to build on the ocean to 5 to 12 ft by Tuesday afternoon. Waves of 5 to 8 ft are possible across the extreme eastern portion of the eastern sound, with 5 ft waves more likely across this area Tuesday. Waves diminish Tuesday night.

HYDROLOGY. No significant liquid equivalent is forecast through Sunday. A significant long duration rainfall event is possible beginning Monday through Tuesday night.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

The KOKX WSR-88D radar will be out of service until approximately 12/7 due to the refurbishment of the transmitter. This work is part of the NEXRAD Service Life Extension Program.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EST Saturday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . JP/DW NEAR TERM . DW SHORT TERM . DW LONG TERM . JP AVIATION . Goodman MARINE . JP/DW HYDROLOGY . JP/DW EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY162 mi69 minSW 410.00 miFair33°F23°F66%1021.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW14
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1 day agoW6W7W7W8W6W4W5W5W5W4W4--W4CalmW5--W4----Calm--W4NW6W10
2 days agoNW14NW13
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NW9NW8NW5W5W8----W5----CalmCalmNW3CalmW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.