Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Southampton, NY
May 13, 2024 2:35 PM EDT (18:35 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:33 AM Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 10:14 AM Moonset 12:50 AM |
ANZ094
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ANZ005 1227 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm - High pres will move E across the maritimes through tonight. A storm system approaches from the W Mon night and Tue, crosses the region Wed, then exits across the maritimes Thu.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 131726 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 126 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will move out into the Atlantic into this A warm front will then pass to the northeast tonight into early Tuesday. A cold front to the west will slow down and become nearly stationary Tuesday through Tuesday night. Low pressure developing to the west will eventually pass to the south and then southeast Wednesday into Wednesday night. Brief high pressure will follow for Thursday, with several disturbances moving through from late week into early next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
BKN-OVC low clouds that covered most of the area except for eastern Long Island and much of S CT early this morning are eroding, and now confined to mostly to the NYC metro area and points south, and along the sea breeze boundary across Long Island. Some of these may take until early to mid afternoon to scatter out especially across NE NJ. These clouds will likely limit high temps to the mid/upper 60s in NYC and NE NJ.
Southerly winds will increase this afternoon.
Some subtle small amplitude shortwaves could traverse the interior be associated with more clouds this afternoon. For now maintained isolated to scattered showers across mainly the northern and eastern sections of the area late this afternoon into this evening, as a shortwave trough rides SE through the upper ridge. afternoon into this evening.
The ridge then shifts east into the Atlantic overnight into early Tuesday, with negative vorticity advection and associated subsidence/clearing skies. Low level SW flow will continue.
Radiational cooling will be partially mitigated along the coastal areas as onshore flow and winds staying up within the boundary layer under the eventually mostly clear sky. Used the NBM for low tempo tonight.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
More of a SW synoptic flow sets up tonight into Tuesday with mid level ridge moving farther east of the region and an approaching trough from the west. At the surface, a warm front moves northeast of the region and a trailing cold front will slow down well west of the region. This will keep the local area in the warm sector.
Continued SW low level flow will increase 850mb temperatures compared to the previous day so likewise surface temperatures will also trend a few degrees warmer. Forecast highs get more in the low to mid 70s for a greater fraction of the region.
In the mid levels, a trough will continue to approach from the west Tuesday night into early Wednesday and will slow down as it becomes cutoff. The cutoff mid level low slowly traverses south and eventually southeast of Long Island Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Upper level jet streaks move in late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
The main upper level jet thereafter stays well south of the region late Tuesday night through midweek.
Multiple areas of low pressure are expected to form along the front with another frontal system approaching from the south Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The main frontal system to the south with its center of low pressure passes south and eventually southeast of Long Island Wednesday into Wednesday night.
The bulk of the rain is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday with the increase in low level omega as well as some increased divergence aloft. Rain intensity forecast as moderate and also expected the mode of rain will transition from convective to more stratiform. Low pressure moving farther southeast of Long Island late Wednesday night with decreasing POPs for rain. Rain could be heavy at times as layer precipitable waters increase to near 1.1 to 1.4 inches, highest along the coast.
Regarding thunderstorms, they will be possible across western and interior sections of the region Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. This is where temperatures are forecast to be relatively warmer, leading to more surfaced based instability. The rain will be more of a convective mode in showers.
For temperatures, used blended guidance. Wanted to convey lower diurnal range of temperatures Wednesday into Wednesday night, and Wednesday daytime temperatures well below normal with the more easterly flow.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The area remains under an upper level trough by Thursday morning, though it is slowly making its way east of the area during the day.
Models disagree with the speed at which the trough moves away and thus differ on the extent of the surface low pressure's impact on the area. The GFS and CMC have the low far enough offshore where there shouldn't be much shower activity, though the ECMWF keeps the low closer to the area allowing for continued chance of showers during much of the day Thursday and Thursday night.
By Friday, another large scale trough brings another frontal system into the area from the west. While the day may be mostly dry, showers once again become possible later in the day and into Friday evening. The upper trough moves overhead slowly through the weekend allowing for several frontal waves and areas of low pressure to pass by. This likely continues the chance for rain showers through the weekend and into early next week.
Temperatures will largely be at or slightly below average for the extended period. Each day is expected to feature highs in the upper 60s to low 70s with each night in the 50s.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Weak high pressure pushes offshore through tonight. Low pressure slowly approaches from the southwest Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Mainly VFR. There is a chance of showers Tuesday afternoon and early evening, especially from the NYC metro terminals on NW.
SW winds around 10 kt will shift to the S this afternoon, 10-15 kt. Any gusts 15-20 kt will be occasional and mainly located across Long Island. S winds slowly weaken this evening and may shift to the SSW. Wind speeds by early Tuesday morning should be around 5 kt. SSW-S winds increase on Tuesday, becoming 10-15 kt by late morning or early afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shift to the S this afternoon may be off by 1-2 hours.
A gust 15-20 kt cannot be ruled out this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday Afternoon: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers late. S wind gusts 15-20kt possible near coast in afternoon.
Tuesday night: MVFR or lower in showers, most likely west of the NYC metro.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely in showers. Showers diminish at night. NE wind gusts 15-20kt.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. NE wind gusts 20 kt possible.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower late.
Saturday: MVFR possible. Chance of showers. SE gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
S flow will increase this afternoon into this evening. There is potential for a window of 5-ft seas and 25-kt gusts on the ocean waters S of NYC as the Ambrose Jet increases, and a short fused SCA may become necessary from about 6-10 PM.
Otherwise, conditions should remain mostly below SCA thresholds through Tuesday night. Wind gusts could get close at times to 25 kt over parts of the ocean, limited due to a low level temperature inversion inhibiting mixing of stronger winds from aloft.
Wind gusts are forecast to remain generally 15-20 kt with more E flow developing Wednesday, and then pick up Wednesday night with winds increasing and becoming more N. SCA wind gusts will be possible Wednesday night especially on the ocean. From prolonged onshore flow and fetch, ocean seas are forecast to build to SCA levels Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Looking at the long term marine forecast period from Thursday into the start of the weekend, lingering SCA waves on the ocean subside by Friday with sub-SCA conditions on all waters through Saturday.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic problems expected.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 126 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will move out into the Atlantic into this A warm front will then pass to the northeast tonight into early Tuesday. A cold front to the west will slow down and become nearly stationary Tuesday through Tuesday night. Low pressure developing to the west will eventually pass to the south and then southeast Wednesday into Wednesday night. Brief high pressure will follow for Thursday, with several disturbances moving through from late week into early next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
BKN-OVC low clouds that covered most of the area except for eastern Long Island and much of S CT early this morning are eroding, and now confined to mostly to the NYC metro area and points south, and along the sea breeze boundary across Long Island. Some of these may take until early to mid afternoon to scatter out especially across NE NJ. These clouds will likely limit high temps to the mid/upper 60s in NYC and NE NJ.
Southerly winds will increase this afternoon.
Some subtle small amplitude shortwaves could traverse the interior be associated with more clouds this afternoon. For now maintained isolated to scattered showers across mainly the northern and eastern sections of the area late this afternoon into this evening, as a shortwave trough rides SE through the upper ridge. afternoon into this evening.
The ridge then shifts east into the Atlantic overnight into early Tuesday, with negative vorticity advection and associated subsidence/clearing skies. Low level SW flow will continue.
Radiational cooling will be partially mitigated along the coastal areas as onshore flow and winds staying up within the boundary layer under the eventually mostly clear sky. Used the NBM for low tempo tonight.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
More of a SW synoptic flow sets up tonight into Tuesday with mid level ridge moving farther east of the region and an approaching trough from the west. At the surface, a warm front moves northeast of the region and a trailing cold front will slow down well west of the region. This will keep the local area in the warm sector.
Continued SW low level flow will increase 850mb temperatures compared to the previous day so likewise surface temperatures will also trend a few degrees warmer. Forecast highs get more in the low to mid 70s for a greater fraction of the region.
In the mid levels, a trough will continue to approach from the west Tuesday night into early Wednesday and will slow down as it becomes cutoff. The cutoff mid level low slowly traverses south and eventually southeast of Long Island Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Upper level jet streaks move in late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
The main upper level jet thereafter stays well south of the region late Tuesday night through midweek.
Multiple areas of low pressure are expected to form along the front with another frontal system approaching from the south Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The main frontal system to the south with its center of low pressure passes south and eventually southeast of Long Island Wednesday into Wednesday night.
The bulk of the rain is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday with the increase in low level omega as well as some increased divergence aloft. Rain intensity forecast as moderate and also expected the mode of rain will transition from convective to more stratiform. Low pressure moving farther southeast of Long Island late Wednesday night with decreasing POPs for rain. Rain could be heavy at times as layer precipitable waters increase to near 1.1 to 1.4 inches, highest along the coast.
Regarding thunderstorms, they will be possible across western and interior sections of the region Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. This is where temperatures are forecast to be relatively warmer, leading to more surfaced based instability. The rain will be more of a convective mode in showers.
For temperatures, used blended guidance. Wanted to convey lower diurnal range of temperatures Wednesday into Wednesday night, and Wednesday daytime temperatures well below normal with the more easterly flow.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The area remains under an upper level trough by Thursday morning, though it is slowly making its way east of the area during the day.
Models disagree with the speed at which the trough moves away and thus differ on the extent of the surface low pressure's impact on the area. The GFS and CMC have the low far enough offshore where there shouldn't be much shower activity, though the ECMWF keeps the low closer to the area allowing for continued chance of showers during much of the day Thursday and Thursday night.
By Friday, another large scale trough brings another frontal system into the area from the west. While the day may be mostly dry, showers once again become possible later in the day and into Friday evening. The upper trough moves overhead slowly through the weekend allowing for several frontal waves and areas of low pressure to pass by. This likely continues the chance for rain showers through the weekend and into early next week.
Temperatures will largely be at or slightly below average for the extended period. Each day is expected to feature highs in the upper 60s to low 70s with each night in the 50s.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Weak high pressure pushes offshore through tonight. Low pressure slowly approaches from the southwest Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Mainly VFR. There is a chance of showers Tuesday afternoon and early evening, especially from the NYC metro terminals on NW.
SW winds around 10 kt will shift to the S this afternoon, 10-15 kt. Any gusts 15-20 kt will be occasional and mainly located across Long Island. S winds slowly weaken this evening and may shift to the SSW. Wind speeds by early Tuesday morning should be around 5 kt. SSW-S winds increase on Tuesday, becoming 10-15 kt by late morning or early afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shift to the S this afternoon may be off by 1-2 hours.
A gust 15-20 kt cannot be ruled out this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday Afternoon: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers late. S wind gusts 15-20kt possible near coast in afternoon.
Tuesday night: MVFR or lower in showers, most likely west of the NYC metro.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely in showers. Showers diminish at night. NE wind gusts 15-20kt.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. NE wind gusts 20 kt possible.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower late.
Saturday: MVFR possible. Chance of showers. SE gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
S flow will increase this afternoon into this evening. There is potential for a window of 5-ft seas and 25-kt gusts on the ocean waters S of NYC as the Ambrose Jet increases, and a short fused SCA may become necessary from about 6-10 PM.
Otherwise, conditions should remain mostly below SCA thresholds through Tuesday night. Wind gusts could get close at times to 25 kt over parts of the ocean, limited due to a low level temperature inversion inhibiting mixing of stronger winds from aloft.
Wind gusts are forecast to remain generally 15-20 kt with more E flow developing Wednesday, and then pick up Wednesday night with winds increasing and becoming more N. SCA wind gusts will be possible Wednesday night especially on the ocean. From prolonged onshore flow and fetch, ocean seas are forecast to build to SCA levels Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Looking at the long term marine forecast period from Thursday into the start of the weekend, lingering SCA waves on the ocean subside by Friday with sub-SCA conditions on all waters through Saturday.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic problems expected.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
Upton, NY,
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