Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tilghman Island, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 7:26PM Sunday March 29, 2020 1:42 AM EDT (05:42 UTC) Moonrise 8:51AMMoonset 11:34PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 138 Am Edt Sun Mar 29 2020
Overnight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Areas of drizzle. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 138 Am Edt Sun Mar 29 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A stalled frontal boundary will remain south and west of the waters through tonight. The boundary will lift northward as a warm front early Sunday, followed by a cold frontal passage from the west Sunday night. High pressure will briefly build in for Monday before low pressure passes to the south Tuesday night into Wednesday. A small craft advisory may be required Tuesday night and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tilghman Island, MD
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location: 38.71, -76.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 290128 AAA AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 928 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. A front will stall out near the Appalachians into southern Virginia through tonight. The front will then try to lift north as a warm front early Sunday, before a cold front moves through from the west late Sunday. High pressure will be in control Monday into Tuesday. A low pressure will then approach from the southeast U.S. Tuesday night before departing off the mid- Atlantic coast on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/.

Biggest challenge for tonight is going to be how low cigs get and how low visiblities drop. Short-term guidance is all over the place with MOS guidance suggesting vsbys remain in the 2-4sm range while GLAMP and other hi-res models indicating visibilities dropping to less than half a mile. Not expecting any measurable precip other than some light drizzle.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/.

Short-term models like the HRRR indicate isold supercell potential possible especially along and north of Interstates 68 and 70. Even if warm front fails to lift into PA, there appears to be sufficient elevated instability that supercells could still produce large to very large hail. Convective initation remains questionable especially in southern areas where there is lack of frontal convergence. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are still expected in the northern half of the fcst area.

Previous afd .

Sunday will start with ample low clouds and fog attempting to lift. How quickly it does so may be the key to the forecast. Believe there will be a sharp inversion, with a warm nose which could be as warm as 19C near 925 mb.

A cold front will approach during the day, and cross the region during the afternoon, during peak heating (18-00 UTC). There will be ample shear across the region. Instability will be the question. If the wedge holds, then instability will be minimal and the front would either come through dry or as a few showers (with perhaps an elevated rumble of thunder). But, if the wedge does manage to mix out, then MUCAPE may exceed 1000 j/kg. Given the other ingredients in place, that would be supportive of robust thunderstorms. There are guidance members on each side of the fence.

After collaboration with SPC, decided that the conditional threat great enough to at least mention somehow . hence Marginal Risk of severe. Am maintaining a chance of precip crossing the area in the database, with a slight chance of thunder. It may be that both solutions are correct; ie: cool/stable air across northern Maryland while moist/unstable air present across central Virginia and southern Maryland. Will be monitoring later cycles to discern these details.

Sunday night into Monday a deep cyclone will build across the Great Lakes. The area will experience high pressure but westerly flow and cold advection. Lows will be in the 40s again by Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. An upper level trough over the southern Plains will drop southward through the southern parts of the mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas Tuesday into Wednesday. A surface low associated with this trough will move to our south Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday morning. The main area of precipitation should be situated to the south of our forecast area over the Carolinas and the southern portions of Virginia. As the main forcing remains to our south, the precipitation that we observe in our region will likely be caused by a combination of overrunning precipitation and an easterly flow off of the ocean. If this system tracks further northward, our region has the potential to experience heavier precipitation mainly late Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. Precipitation and an easterly flow will lead to daytime temps running near to slightly below normal for this time of the year in the 50s and lower 60s with overnight lows in the 40s

High pressure builds into our region behind the exiting low Wednesday afternoon and remains over our area through Thursday. Light winds out of north will lead to cooler conditions over our area. Temperatures will continue to hover in the 50s with overnight lows in the 40s on Thursday.

Another cold front is forecast to approach and move through our region Friday and into early Saturday. Models have some decent agreement on the subtropical jet moving northward and phasing with weak jet over the midwest and mid-Atlantic. This phasing will combine with a frontal passage to bring precipitation to our region once again. The main limiting factor will be a westerly flow transporting drier air into our area. We will need to monitor the strength of the jets to determine further hazards for end of next week.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Flight conditions straddling between MVFR and IFR, but across BWI/MTN the marine flow spreading inland has resulted in conditions on the verge of LIFR. Low clouds and fog will continue to spread inland, with LIFR widespread overnight.

Conditions will slowly improve Sunday. How quickly this transpires still in doubt. A cold front will be crossing the terminals this afternoon. If the clearing comes by midday, then strong thunderstorms possible along with the frontal passage. Otherwise it may be a dry front.

VFR will return Sunday night, continuing through Monday.

SubVFR conditions are possible late Tuesday and into Wednesday due to rain and an easterly flow. VFR conditions should return Wednesday afternoon and continue through Thursday as high pressure builds over our region.

MARINE. Light northeast winds (at or below 10 kt) will continue across the waters through tonight. Low clouds and fog will be thickening through the night. Winds will likely veer south tomorrow as the marine wedge lifts. Its unclear how quickly this will happen, but any clearing would be followed by a threat of thunderstorms with gusty winds late Sunday afternoon.

Conditions will improve Sunday night, but winds shouldn't be high enough to need Small Craft Advisories. No Small Craft issues expected on Tuesday as well, but Small Craft Advisories may be needed on Wednesday due to a northerly flow.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . LFR NEAR TERM . LFR SHORT TERM . HTS LONG TERM . JMG AVIATION . LFR/JMG MARINE . LFR/JMG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi42 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 49°F 50°F1015.2 hPa (-0.9)49°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 16 mi54 min ENE 1.9 G 5.1 51°F 55°F1013.6 hPa
CPVM2 20 mi54 min 49°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 21 mi60 min 50°F 1013.5 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 21 mi132 min NE 1.9 1014 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi192 min N 15 G 17 1014.8 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 28 mi54 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 51°F 53°F1013.6 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 35 mi60 min NNE 5.1 G 7 49°F 51°F1014.5 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi60 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 52°F 56°F1013.8 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 37 mi54 min NNE 5.1 G 6 49°F 1014.2 hPa
FSNM2 37 mi72 min N 5.1 G 6 49°F 1013.9 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi54 min ENE 1 G 2.9 51°F 54°F1014.4 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 41 mi54 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 50°F 52°F1014 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 41 mi54 min E 5.1 G 5.1
NCDV2 47 mi60 min E 2.9 G 4.1 52°F 56°F1013.3 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD15 mi38 minN 00.75 miFog/Mist50°F49°F97%1014.9 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD18 mi57 minN 01.25 miFog/Mist50°F0°F%1013.9 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD19 mi57 minN 01.25 miFog/Mist52°F51°F100%1013.5 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD20 mi48 minN 41.25 miFog/Mist50°F48°F93%1014.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESN

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE4SE5SE6E7E4SE6E8E6E9
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1 day agoS6S5S5S4S3CalmW4S5W6NW6W6NW7NW5N5N6N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmSW4S7SW12SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Avalon, Dogwood Harbor, Maryland
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Avalon
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:20 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:39 AM EDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:00 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:04 PM EDT     1.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.20.20.40.711.41.61.61.51.310.70.50.40.40.40.60.811.110.90.6

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:07 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:07 AM EDT     -0.53 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:51 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:31 AM EDT     0.88 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:18 PM EDT     -0.77 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:01 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:21 PM EDT     0.35 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.300.40.70.90.90.70.40-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.3-00.20.30.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.