Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tilghman Island, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 6:26PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 7:57 AM EDT (11:57 UTC) Moonrise 7:20PMMoonset 8:42AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 736 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
.gale warning in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through Thursday afternoon...
Today..SE winds 10 kt...becoming nw late. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of tstms. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 4 ft.
Thu..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 kt...becoming s. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 736 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will intensify as it moves off the mid- atlantic coast today. A cold front will pass through the waters late this afternoon into this evening. High pressure will approach for Thursday before settling overhead Friday. High pressure will move offshore during the weekend. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Thursday night and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tilghman Island, MD
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location: 38.71, -76.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 160752
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
352 am edt Wed oct 16 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will intensify today as it moves off the mid-
atlantic coast. A strong cold front will pass through late this
afternoon into this evening while the rapidly intensifies off to
our northeast. The low will move toward new england later
tonight and Thursday before high pressure returns for Friday and
into Saturday. Low pressure may impact the area Sunday before a
cold front approaches next week.

Near term through tonight
Currently seeing some low clouds east of the blue ridge thanks
to some shallow moisture advection ahead of an approaching cold
front.

A strengthening area of surface low pressure, currently over
the great lakes, will slide north of the area throughout the
day today, with the attendant cold front pushing through from
west to east this afternoon. This is associated with a deep
mid upper level trough swinging through the region. Meanwhile,
another piece of mid upper level energy embedded within the
subtropical jet will initiated another surface low along a
stalled frontal boundary along the gulf coast, before moving
into the western atlantic. As the northern stream energy becomes
negatively tilted, surface low pressure will transfer offshore,
as the two mid upper lows phase into one off the new england
coast. A much stronger low will result and track to the
northeast. This, paired with the actual cold front passage, will
result in a period of moderate rainfall today across much of
the area, but especially in central md and areas east. Thinking
the bulk of the rainfall should be out of here by this evening,
aside from upslope showers along west of the allegheny front.

Behind the cold front, the concern will be with wind. A surge of
gusty winds Wednesday night is expected, with gusts in the 25-30
mph range for much of the area, with even higher gusts on the
higher peaks above 2500 feet. As a result, a wind advisory has
been added for the higher elevations Wednesday night into
Thursday. Additionally, the upslope showers along west of the
blue ridge will be ongoing, with even some snow mixing in for
areas above 3000 feet, where lows will be in the upper 20s to
low 30s. Not expecting much in terms of accumulation, but can't
rule out a dusting at the highest elevations. Elsewhere,
overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
Windy conditions will continue into the day on Thursday, as the
aforementioned surface low continues to strengthen and move off
to the northeast. A wind advisory should not be necessary on
Thursday, but winds will still be gusting in the 30-40 mph
range, so will certainly be our first big wind event of the
season. Highest winds will be in the higher elevations, as well
as in our northeast zones, where the pressure gradient will be
tightening. This wind will last into Thursday afternoon, before
diminishing into the evening, as the low moves farther away from
the area.

Otherwise, we stay dry on Thursday for most of the area, aside
from continued upslope induced showers along west of the
allegheny front, which could possibly mix with snow at times
above 3000 feet. Not expecting accumulations during the day
Thursday, but probably just going to see a few flakes mix in
with rain. Highs across the region will be in the upper 50s to
low 60s east of the blue ridge, with low to mid 50s west, and of
course significantly colder on the ridge tops (mid 30s to mid
40s).

Upslope showers continue along west of the allegheny front into
early Thursday night, with the continued chance for some snow
above 3000 feet. Lows Friday morning will be comparable to
Thursday morning, if not a degree or two warmer.

Sunny and dry on Friday, as high pressure will be building into
the region. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal
on Friday, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Overnight lows on
Friday will be quite chilly, into the mid to upper 30s
along west of the blue ridge, perhaps even into the far western
dc suburbs. Could see our fist widespread frost event across the
area Friday night.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
High pressure will gradually move offshore Saturday through
Sunday and a return flow will develop. The high will remain
close enough Saturday and Saturday night for dry and
seasonable conditions.

For Sunday, weak low pressure associated with the southern
stream of the jet will pass through the southeastern conus,
and there is a chance that southern stream moisture overruns
cooler air in place to cause rain. Confidence remains low due to
divergence in guidance as to how far north the moisture makes
it.

A storm system from the rockies will move into the central
conus Sunday night through Monday, causing a potent
longwave upper-level trough to develop over the central conus. This
will increase the southerly flow across our area, allowing for a
warm front to pass through along with deep moisture advection.

Unseasonably warm conditions are likely along with increasing
chances for rain. As the upper-level trough shifts east,
so to will the cold front associated with it. This will bring the
chance for more showers Tuesday along with the likelihood for
unseasonably warm conditions.

Aviation 07z Wednesday through Sunday
MVFR to ifr CIGS expected this morning at iad, dca, bwi and mtn,
as an area of low clouds has moved over the region, thanks to
moist air advection from the southeast. Meanwhile, cold
front low pressure will bring moderate rain to the area later
this morning, continuing through the afternoon, until the front
pushes through. MVFR CIGS will be expected through the
afternoon, with visby reductions to MVFR likely in the heaviest
rain. Can't rule out brief periods of ifr with this system as
well, but wasn't confident enough to put it in at this time.

Winds pick up this evening behind the cold front, and continue
throughout the day on Thursday. Strong northwest winds gusting
to 30-35 knots are likely during this period, especially
Thursday afternoon, as low pressure strengthens off the east
coast. Winds at cho likely won't be quite as strong Thursday,
but do expect a push of stronger winds behind the front
tonight.VFR conditions are expected at all terminals though,
which will also be the case on Friday. The only difference will
be that wind will have let up by Friday. Gusts of 15-20 knots
will still be possible during the afternoon however, again
everywhere except cho.

Vfr conditions are Saturday and Saturday night due to high
pressure. Low pressure may bring some rain and subvfr conditions
Sunday, but confidence is low at this time. There is a better
chance for lower clouds and precipitation early next week.

Marine
Small craft advisories are out for the whole day today for most
of the waters, aside from the northern tidal potomac. A cold
front will move through the waters this afternoon, with a strong
push of wind behind it. This has resulted in the issuance of a
gale warning for all waters tonight.

Low pressure will strengthen off the east coast throughout the
day on Thursday, while drifting to the northeast. This will
result in continued strong winds over the waters, with a gale
warning out in the northern tidal potomac, as well as the
northern bay.

Winds will gradually die down through Friday, but small craft
advisories will likely continue into the early part of the day.

High pressure will move offshore Saturday and a southerly flow
will develop. Winds may approach SCA criteria, but confidence
is low. The southerly flow will continue early next week and
likely strengthen ahead of an approaching cold front.

Tides coastal flooding
An onshore flow will continue today ahead of a cold front. This
will cause anomalies to rise a bit. A coastal flood advisory
is in effect for washington dc and anne arundel county
(annapolis) this morning, and for st marys and anne arundel this
afternoon and evening. The coastal flood advisory may need to
include washington dc for the evening high tide, but confidence
is lower since an offshore flow will be developing around that
time.

A strong offshore flow will develop tonight and anomalies will
fall sharply.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Coastal flood advisory from 8 am this morning to 1 pm edt this
afternoon for dcz001.

Md... Wind advisory from 6 pm this evening to 2 pm edt Thursday for
mdz501.

Coastal flood advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for mdz014.

Coastal flood advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 7 pm edt
this evening for mdz017.

Va... Wind advisory from 6 pm this evening to 2 pm edt Thursday for
vaz503-504-507-508.

Wv... Wind advisory from 6 pm this evening to 2 pm edt Thursday for
wvz501-503-505-506.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for
anz531>534-536-537-539>543.

Gale warning from 6 pm this evening to 6 pm edt Thursday for
anz530>533-535-538>541.

Small craft advisory from 6 am to 6 pm edt Thursday for anz534-
536-537-542-543.

Gale warning from 6 pm this evening to 6 am edt Thursday for
anz534-536-537-542-543.

Small craft advisory from noon today to 6 pm edt this evening
for anz530-538.

Synopsis... Cjl
near term... Cjl
short term... Cjl
long term... Bjl
aviation... Bjl cjl
marine... Bjl cjl
tides coastal flooding... Bjl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 12 mi52 min SSE 12 G 12 63°F 1012.8 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi58 min ESE 13 G 14 62°F 67°F1012.5 hPa (-1.8)62°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 16 mi64 min ESE 7 G 8 59°F 67°F1011.7 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 19 mi34 min S 12 G 14 63°F 67°F1011.7 hPa
CPVM2 20 mi58 min 63°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 21 mi58 min 63°F 1011.3 hPa (-1.7)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 21 mi148 min Calm 54°F 1013 hPa54°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 28 mi58 min S 7 G 8 65°F 69°F1012 hPa (-1.3)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 35 mi64 min ESE 4.1 G 7 58°F 66°F1011.9 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi64 min SE 12 G 15 64°F 65°F1012.1 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 37 mi58 min SE 9.9 G 13 63°F 1011.2 hPa (-2.3)
FSNM2 37 mi64 min SSE 11 G 14 1011.3 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi58 min S 5.1 G 7 62°F 68°F1012 hPa (-1.5)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 41 mi58 min S 13 G 15
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 41 mi58 min SSE 4.1 G 8 64°F 69°F1011 hPa (-2.2)
NCDV2 47 mi64 min SSW 6 G 9.9 62°F 1011.2 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 47 mi34 min ESE 14 G 16 67°F 68°F1014.2 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD15 mi68 minE 55.00 miFog/Mist57°F57°F100%1013.2 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD18 mi78 minESE 810.00 miFair61°F60°F100%1011.8 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD19 mi78 minESE 50.50 miFog/Mist55°F55°F100%1011.8 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD20 mi2.1 hrsSE 1010.00 miOvercast63°F61°F93%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESN

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4NE6E6N4NE5CalmCalmCalmS3W3CalmCalmE6SE5E4SE4SE4SE5SE5SE5SE4SE5E5SE3
1 day agoCalmCalmW5W6W6NW8NW5W7CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago--N6NE5NE4E5S5N4N4CalmN4CalmNW3N3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Avalon, Dogwood Harbor, Maryland
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Avalon
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:38 AM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:36 AM EDT     1.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:52 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:16 PM EDT     2.02 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.81.11.31.51.51.41.10.80.60.40.30.40.71.11.51.9221.81.61.31

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:49 AM EDT     -0.92 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:19 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:54 AM EDT     0.55 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:33 PM EDT     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:16 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:51 PM EDT     0.99 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:16 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.8-0.5-0.10.20.50.50.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.10.30.70.910.90.50.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (7,2,3,4)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.