Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Beach, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Forecast remains on track with subtle changes to temperatures, cloud cover, and winds.

The hemispheric pattern this morning features a deep upper trough across eastern North America while ridging extends over much of the western portions of the continent. Within the southern stream, a stretched out positively-tilted trough anchors northwestern portions of the Mexico. This latter feature ends up bringing the local area the next chance for measurable rainfall.

Slightly warmer conditions today with added sunshine and less wind as high pressure centered over the southeastern U.S builds eastward into the region. 850 mb temperatures look to rise 5 to 8 degrees C compared to where were yesterday yielding slightly warmer high temperatures at the surface. Highs today are forecast to push into the upper 30s and low to mid 40s for most with upper 20s and low 30s forecast across the mountains. Wind chill factors should remain fairly similar to actual air temperatures with light west to southwest winds at 5 to 15 mph. Occasional gusts up to 20 mph are possible along the higher ridges and near the waters.

By tonight, south to southwesterly warm air advection ensue as high pressure pushes slowly off the southeast U.S coast. This will hold low temperatures closer to freezing in most locations. Sheltered valleys will likely dip into the mid to upper 20s and low 30s.
Winds will help aid in keeping temperatures especially over the ridges as a strong west to southwest 925 mb low level jet amplifies over the region. This will enhance wind gusts between 40 to 45 mph over the mountains with a few localized ridges pushing close to advisory criteria. Elsewhere, expect 20 to 30 mph gusts as the sun comes up and mixing ensues early Sunday morning. At this time, Wind Advisories are not expected given the small spatial area affected.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Building heights ahead of the next weather maker tracking from northwestern Mexico into the Southern Plains will bring above average temperatures back to the region. By Sunday afternoon, 850-mb forecast temperatures rise to around 6 to 8C. While vertical mixing will not be able to tape into that pocket of milder air, high temperatures are expected to push into the 50s.
A few low 60s are also possible for areas south of I-66 in Virginia. Mountain locations are likely to see 40s to low 50s. A mainly westerly wind may be gusty at times during the afternoon.
Some gusts up to 20 to 25 mph are likely, slightly higher in the terrain. Clouds continue to increase through the day ahead of the next system. Unlike preceding systems, this comes from the southern stream which should keep this an all-rain event Sunday night into Monday.

Much of the area settles into the 30s overnight. If precipitation arrives a bit earlier, some mixed precipitation types are not out of the question. However, the current forecast packages favors a cold rain late Sunday night, continuing into Monday. The shortwave in question is rather progressive in nature as it tracks from western Kentucky to the New Jersey coast on Monday. Most areas will see around 0.10-0.25 inches of rain, locally around 0.50 inches along the Allegheny Front. The forecast highs have trended down on Monday owing to the clouds and rain in the area. Mainly mid/upper 40s are expected from U.S. 50 northward, with low to mid 50s to the south. Rain chances diminish into the evening and night for most except those in the Alleghenies. Nighttime lows mainly stay in the upper 30s to low 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Global models show an amplifying upper level trough over the central CONUS Tue that swings across the Mid-Atlc and Northeast states Wed night-Tue while taking on a negative tilt. As a result, a strong surface low develops over the mid-South Tue along a stalled front in response to upper level divergence and strengthening jet dynamics. As dynamics improve Tue night-Wed, expect widespread soaking rain/showers over the area late Tue night with rain turning into snow over the mountains as heights fall substantially (~180 meters in 24 hrs). Note that the latest Euro is significantly deeper/sharper with this trough than the GFS. Expect a sharp drop in temperatures and an abrupt increase in winds immediately behind fropa. While instability is expected to be non-existent, magnitude of mid-level winds (~500 mb)
exceeding 110 kt, suggest potential for damaging post- frontal/non-convective winds. East of the mountains, it appears the precip exits quickly before cold air catches up, so it appears any snow showers will be confined to west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Much colder and brisk conditions will follow for the second half of next week.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the weekend. With high pressure passing by to the south and southwest, winds will largely be out of the west to southwesterly direction. Outside of KMRB which has seen an abrupt rise in gusts to 20 to 25 knots, other TAF sites are staying in the 5 to 10 knot range. Afternoon winds are expected to gust to around 15 knots today, with a further uptick into Sunday. Southwesterly winds increase on Sunday with afternoon gusts to 25 knots.

Rain overspreads the area late Sunday night into Monday. This will support IFR to MVFR conditions on Monday before this band of rain exits the area by the evening. Winds through the day on Monday will meander between southeast to southerly. Depending on how much cloud cover lingers into the night, some residual lower ceilings are possible.

Showers are possible Tue with rain or showers more definite Tue night into Wed morning. IFR/LIFR conditions appear likely Tue night into Wed. LLWS is also possible. FROPA expected late Wed with strong gusty of 30kt possible behind front.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisories continue through the early afternoon across the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay. Southwesterly gusts up to 20 knots are possible while these advisories are in effect. After a brief lull, southwesterly winds intensify this evening and night and into parts of Sunday. Small Craft Advisories are in place over most of the waters outside of the northern/central tidal Potomac and far northern Chesapeake Bay.
Sub-advisory caliber winds are expected for the second half of Sunday into Monday morning. However, another ramp up is likely on Monday across southern portions of the Chesapeake Bay in response to southerly channeling effects. This does appear to be on the brief side and restricted to only portions of the waters.

SCA conditions are likely Tuesday night through Thursday morning.
Gale conditions are possible Wed night.

FIRE WEATHER
While temperatures are rather cold, which typically mitigates rapid fire spread, a number of wildfires have recently broken out in the dry/gusty post-frontal environment. Winds do decrease in strength after dark with moderate nighttime recoveries expected.

For tonight into Sunday, a tight pressure gradient brings gusty winds to the area, primarily at higher elevations.
Southwesterly winds gust 20 to 25 mph across the area, with gusts around 30 to 40 mph expected at higher elevations.
Relative humidity values will be in the 40s and 50s for most of the area as southerly winds usher in moisture from the south.

A wetting rain comes in Monday across a vast majority of the region.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tidal departures of around 1 ft below normal are expected today.
Departures will continue to recover tonight as winds diminish. Tidal departures recover to near normal by Sunday as winds shift to a more southerly direction.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ530>532-538>540.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EST Sunday for ANZ531>534-537>543.