Kit Carson, CO Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kit Carson, CO

June 14, 2024 6:05 AM MDT (12:05 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:32 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM
Moonrise 1:19 PM   Moonset 1:12 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kit Carson, CO
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Area Discussion for - Goodland, KS
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FXUS63 KGLD 141127 AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 527 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms will develop in northeast Colorado by mid afternoon, reaching the Colorado and Kansas border area by 6 PM MT, and sweeping across the rest of the area this evening.
The primary hazard will be destructive winds in excess of 60 mph and locally up to 90 mph. Some large hail may accompany initial storm development in the afternoon and early evening, as well as a tornado or two, before merging into clusters.
Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible as well as flash flooding.

- There is a marginal risk for a severe storm or two Saturday afternoon and early evening in northwest Kansas east of a Norton to Leoti line. Stronger storms will be capable of hail up to quarter size and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph.

- Return of triple digit heat expected on Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 145 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Overnight showers and isolated thunderstorms appear to be the result of a weak shortwave trough topping the ridge axis. This activity will continue through this morning as the wave moves east. May see a break in the precipitation from late morning through mid afternoon, then convection develops in Colorado 21-22z with the next, and much stronger, shortwave moving out of the Rockies. Storms reach the Colorado-Kansas border area around 00z and then sweep through the forecast area Friday evening. The environment will be moderately unstable, ensemble mean values running around 2000-2500 j/kg with some pockets in excess of 3000 j/kg, and deep layer shear of 30-40 kts. CAMs suggest two possible clusters developing, one in northeast Colorado that moves northeast into Nebraska, and more of a linear cluster that moves across northwest Kansas this evening.
Either cluster will be capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, with some of the model output showing gusts of up to 90 mph possible. The potential for destructive winds will be the main hazard. In addition, large hail may accompany initial discrete supercells that form before merging into a cluster, as well as a tornado or two. Finally, heavy rainfall and flash flooding will become a concern into the evening hours, with 90th percentile QPF of 2-3 inches from Yuma County, Colorado, eastward into the Kansas and Nebraska border area. Higher percentile QPF amounts further south are generally around 1 inch with the faster moving linear cluster, except in the Greeley and Wichita county areas where it is around 2 inches. The severe threat should end by 06z and precipitation ending by around 09z.
High temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lows tonight in the 60s.

The upper trough axis slowly moves through the area on Saturday, ending up near the eastern zones Saturday afternoon, with a weak reflection at the surface. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop with best chances east of a Norton to Leoti line in northwest Kansas with weak convergence along the surface trough.
The environment will only be marginally conducive to severe storms, with instability topping off at around 1500 j/kg and deep layer shear of around 20-25 kts. Cannot completely rule out an isolated low-end severe storm or two, but overall severe threat is low. Storms should move out relatively early Saturday evening as the trough pushes east. High temperatures will be in the lower 90s and lows Saturday night in the 60s.

On Sunday, will have a weak southwesterly flow aloft and a warm front surging northward at the surface. The front will herald the return of extreme heat, with highs back into the upper 90s and lower 100s. Assuming the surface front stays north of the area as the models indicate, in central Nebraska, will only see slight chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night with a weak shortwave moving through the flow. However, if the front is further south, precipitation chances may be higher, particularly in southwest Nebraska. Low temperatures Sunday night will be in the 60s and 70s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 242 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

For the long term, we are looking at the potential for showers and thunderstorms almost daily next week. On Monday the area will be caught between patterns with SW flow aloft as an upper low moves over the Pacific Northwest and an upper high sits along the Carolina Coast. Shortwaves traveling across the Rockies will help strengthen a surface low expected to sit over NE Colorado.
So far, Monday seems to be dry for the Tri-State Area with ~15% confidence and PoPs for storms to impact our northeast corner.
There are some fire weather concerns for Monday afternoon as highs reach the 90s to around 100s. The main area of concern for near critical to critical fire weather conditions is over the western half of Cheyenne County, CO and potentially southwest Kit Carson County where RH values could fall into the mid teens.
Southerly winds may gust up to 35 mph in the aforementioned area while the remainder of the area could see gusts up to 40 mph. Overnight lows could fall into the upper 50s to lower 70s.

On Tuesday we begin to see an increase in rain/storm chances as a cold front moves across the area during the latter half of the day. Another cold front is expected to move over the area on Thursday as the shortwaves continue to move over the region. The best time frame for any showers and storms will be during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday through Thursday.
Temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 80s to mid 90s for highs and the 50s to lower 60s overnight. Wednesday will have even cooler highs thanks to the frontal passage with highs in the mid 70 to lower 80s and lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Thursday will be similar to the prior day with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 524 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms moving through the area this morning may briefly impact either KGLD or KMCK, but impacts, if any, should be minimal. VFR should prevail through the afternoon at both terminals, though surface winds will gradually increase. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will move through the region this evening, with impacts likely. Brief windy to very windy conditions will be possible as the storms move through, as well as reductions in visibility and ceilings in heavy rainfall. Storms should be past both terminals by 06z tonight.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KITR41 sm12 minENE 1210 smClear63°F57°F83%30.14
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Goodland, KS,




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