Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kit Carson, CO

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 115 AM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Current observations show a surface low near the KS/CO border, with the wrap around side around the Tri-State border. Storms have been steadily progressing east out of the area along the Highway 24 corridor. With the northern part of the area still on the wrap around side of the low and 850mb charts suggesting more moisture is being pulled in, additional showers and storms are expected through the early morning hours. Severe weather will remain possible with MUCAPE around 3000 J/KG, effective shear between 40-65 kts, and mid level lapse rates around 8-9 C/KM. The main thing that should limit storm coverage and keep severe to be more isolated is that convective inhibition has been setting in. Otherwise, some patchy fog may develop, mainly in the southwestern portions of the area that have less storm outflow interference.

For the daytime hours, mostly cloudy skies are forecast with storms lingering in and near the area through much of the morning. Temperatures are also forecast to be cooler today compared to yesterday in the 70s and 80s with the additional cloud cover and 850mb temps around 20C. Winds are forecast to remain from the east during the day around 10-15 mph.

During the afternoon and evening hours, another round of storms and severe weather is forecast for the area. An upper shortwave is forecast to push through the Rockies and over the area during the afternoon hours. With the shortwave moving through, a more organized cluster of storms is forecast to develop in Northeastern Colorado and push through the area. This line could potentially stretch across the whole area if there are storms ongoing in Western Nebraska that push forward with the line. If the line does form as guidance is suggesting, that significant wind gusts potentially up to 90 mph would be possible. With this line, there could be some embedded stronger storms or supercells, though hail would likely cap at 2 inches due to the high shear and quick storm motion limiting how organized storms can get. If storms manage to form ahead of the line, then the environment could support up to 3 inch hail, though the forecast convective inhibition due to the cloud cover makes this unlikely. If the clouds break, then be aware for the isolated storms that could produce very large hail. A few QLCS tornadoes could be possible within the line as the mean wind ahead of the line in the lower levels is forecast to be perpendicular to the line orientation. Unfortunately, an organized line could also allow for a wall of dust to develop ahead of the line as storms recently have been able to produce dust along storm outflows.
With a more organized line, this could be similar to a few weeks ago when an organized line move north through Northwestern Kansas with a wall of dust ahead. The time frame for the main line is mainly between 2pm MT and 8pm MT, moving from west to east through the area. There could be pop up storms through the day. The event should be finished by 9pm MT, as slightly drier air moves in and helps clear most of the instability in the area.

It is worth noting that an alternate scenario is possible where the cloud cover is too persistent or isolated storms continue to fire during the day that interrupts the main line. In this scenario, the severe weather coverage would likely be much more sporadic and with severe intensity lower short of maybe hail.
Blowing dust would be more likely to be nuisance and isolated with the individual storms. Currently, this scenario only looks to be a 20% chance of occurring.

For the late evening and night hours, skies are forecast to slowly clear as the storms push east of the area. Winds are also forecast to be from the north and slowly lower to either calm or 5-10 mph. With these conditions, lows are forecast to drop into the 50s across the area.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A very strong deep layer ridge axis will begin to build into the area on Wednesday and will continue to strengthen and dominate the forecast area through the weekend. The end result will be a much drier and hotter pattern. The heat should peak over the weekend when the ridge and overall subsidence will be greatest across the region. Model temperature spread is fairly low, and there is a high degree of confidence that temperatures will warm into the low to mid 100s this weekend.

Monday looks to be a transitional day as the ridge axis begins to pull to the east. Lowering heights and some weak positive vorticity advection in advance of an approaching trough over the Pacific Northwest could weaken the capping inversion just enough to spark off some isolated convection. However, there is still very low confidence in the forecast for Monday, and the rain threat could shift toward later in the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 511 AM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast through most of the period, but storms will be possible through the day. The chances through most of the day are less than 20%, so have opted to keep them out of the TAFs for now. The main period of interest remains a line of storms that are forecast to move in from the west around 21-01Z. If this line develops and moves through, be aware that gusts could exceed 60 kts and there could be near zero visibility in blowing dust. The good news is that once the storms pass, VFR conditions and clearing skies are forecast.
Winds should remain from the east in the absence of storms during the day, then shift to out of the north this evening.

For KMCK... Showers and storms continue to linger near the terminal. This is forecast to continue through much of the morning hours, with a break possible after 18Z. That is until a line of storms move through the area between 21-01Z. If the line moves over the terminal, be advised that gusts could exceed 60 kts and there could be near zero visibility in blowing dust.
Once the line of storms pass, drier air should allow for clear/VFR conditions. Winds will generally be from the east in the absence of storms through the day, then shift to out of the north this evening.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.