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FXUS63 KGLD 061113 AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 413 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2023

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 326 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2023

At the start of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows an upper air ridge over the Rockies placing the CWA underneath the forward portion of ridge causing a northwesterly flow aloft on early Wednesday morning. Current surface observations and satellite imagery report mostly clear skies with light west-southwesterly winds across the CWA. Going through the rest of Wednesday, models show the ridge progressing eastward placing its axis over the CWA by the evening hours. A weak embedded trough is seen over the Four Corners region during the evening hours that moves towards the CWA overnight. At the surface, dry conditions are expected for the CWA along with record to near record high temperatures. A surface low looks to move into eastern CO allowing for warmer air to blow in from the southwest during the afternoon. The lack of cloud cover expected in the afternoon also helps with diurnal heating potential. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for areas west of KS-25 with minimum RH values between the middle and upper teens. Winds look to stay on the lighter side though with the low pressure in the area and limit fire weather potential. Daytime highs look to range between the middle 60s and lower 70s followed by overnight lows in the middle 20s to lower 30s.

On Thursday, forecast guidance shows the aforementioned trough getting weaker and passing over the CWA in morning. By the afternoon, the CWA expects to see a mostly westerly flow aloft while models depict a shortwave disturbance moving over eastern CO. Going into the late evening and overnight hours, an upper air trough over the northwestern CONUS looks to move towards the CWA turning the upper air flow more southwesterly. Dry conditions are expected to persist for another day on Thursday as well with near record to record high temperatures possible once again. Models show 850mb temperatures in the afternoon around 16C with mostly sunny skies over the CWA. Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns are currently forecast for the western half of the CWA with minimum RH values around 15% and dry fuels. Wind gusts look to be slightly higher than those on Wednesday briefly during the early afternoon hours, but stay below 20 kts which does not support critical fire weather. Will continue to monitor this in case the winds start trending towards increasing, but low confidence at this time. Going through Thursday evening and into the overnight hours, models forecast a cold front associated with a surface low in ND moving into CWA from the north. Daytime highs for Thursday once again look to range between the middle 60s and lower 70s while overnight lows are forecast to be between the middle 20s and middle 30s.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2023

The Tri-State area will see wintry precipitation starting Friday morning lasting through Saturday.

Friday, a well defined trough from the northwestern CONUS will be moving over our CWA. Precipitation is likely, even though available moisture will be limited. PoPs have increased across the region now that medium range CAMs are within range of the event. The majority of the CWA does have a greater than 25% chance of receiving precipitation, mainly Friday night. Across the southwestern 3/4 of the CWA, PoPs are 50% or higher Friday evening. The overall timing of the system remains fairly consistent with precipitation beginning Friday morning in Yuma county, expand south-southeast throughout the day, persisting overnight Friday, and tapering off Saturday late morning. The best chance for precipitation will be Friday evening and overnight, with PoPs across the entire Tri-State area being 35%.

Current storm total QPF in eastern Colorado has increased to around 0.2 inches. This increase seems primarily to be due to NAM guidance having more moisture moving into the area. The western CWA will primarily see snow as the dominate P-type as temperatures will remain cool throughout the day Friday. This could lead to around 1-2 inches of snow accumulating around the Flagler area. QPF totals taper off to the east with western Kansas potentially seeing around 0.1 inches and the eastern CWA seeing a few hundredths. Wetbulb temperatures east of the Colorado border look to be warm enough for partial or complete melting near the surface, leading to P-type being rain or a rain/snow mix. A point of the forecast that is still not terribly clear is how long it will take for CAA and evaporation cooling to drop the wetbulb below freezing, allowing snow to be the dominate P-type. Accumulating snow east of the Colorado border looks to generally remain below 1 inch, lessening further to the east.
There is an outside chance (<10%) that small areas of convective banding could form, in which case localized snow accumulations could double. The CMC-NH guidance is showing this system moving through the area with minimal moisture, which would mean only a dusting of snow or a few light showers would be possible. Confidence is very low (<5%) that this will be the case, but there is a chance.

Friday and Saturday are forecast to warm into the 30s and 40s with the nights cooling into the teens and 20s. These swings in temperatures would allow water on surfaces to freeze or refreeze overnight. This seems to be the biggest hazard of the upcoming event. Winds could also pose a problem as the NBM is suggesting northerly winds picking up around 21Z Friday with gusts in the evening and overnight hours up to 35 kts with sustained winds around 20 kts. The stronger winds look to be southwest of a line from Russell Springs, KS to Joes, CO. This is a notable change from 24 hours ago because this means the stronger winds will be occurring while precipitation (likely snow) is occurring. Blowing snow leading to reductions in visibility should be expected from Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Due to generally light rates of precipitation, current visibilities are expected to remain above 1/4, but this could easily change!

25 - 30 kts gusts look to persist throughout the day Saturday as the precipitation ceases. This allow blowing snow to persist throughout a good portion of the day. While winds will slowly let up overnight Saturday, wind chills Saturday and Sunday morning are forecast to be in the single digits to lower teens.

The trough is still expected to broaden on Sunday, leaving the entire Tri-State area in the cold sector of the jet stream. Model guidance is hinting at a weak ridge trying to work in Monday, which would bring warmer temperatures briefly back to the CWA. Promptly after that, on Tuesday, the ridge would break down as another trough begins to push into the area. This could be another chance at precipitation, but a lot will be changing between now and then, so stay tuned!

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 408 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2023

Both KGLD and KMCK expect to see VFR conditions throughout the 12Z TAF period. KGLD begins with west-southwesterly winds around 8 kts that become southerly by 20Z before returning to west- southwesterly once again at 04Z through the end of the TAF period.
KMCK starts with westerly winds around 7 kts before winds become variable around 6 kts at 20Z through the remainder of the TAF period.

CLIMATE
Issued at 326 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2023

Here are the record high temperatures for Wednesday, December 6th and Thursday, December 7th:

There could be a couple locations each day that may come within a few degrees of a record, or even tie it. They are noted below with a (***). The remainder are listed for reference.

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Wednesday, December 6th

Goodland, KS 78F in 1939 McCook, NE 77F in 1939 Burlington, CO 81F in 1939 Hill City, KS 83F in 1939 Colby, KS 82F in 1939 Tribune, KS 78F in 1939 Yuma, CO 68F in 2012+ (***)

A (+) denotes a record for multiple years

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Thursday, December 7th

Goodland, KS 74F in 1923 McCook, NE 71F in 1923 Burlington, CO 68F in 1959 (***)
Hill City, KS 73F in 1923 Colby, KS 76F in 1923 Tribune, KS 71F in 1923 (***)
Yuma, CO 65F in 1965 (***)

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

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