Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kit Carson, CO
May 19, 2024 4:14 AM MDT (10:14 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:41 AM Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 4:28 PM Moonset 3:29 AM |
FXUS63 KGLD 190847 AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 247 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and some storms look to continue through mid morning.
- Severe storms remain forecasted for today with hail around two inches in diameter and wind gusts around 70 mph possible.
- Storms; some severe north of Interstate 70 are forecast Monday. Main hazards are large hail, damaging winds and torrential rainfall.
- Cooler with frost concerns mid week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 244 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Showers and storms continue to push off to the east; some continued isentropic lift will continue to support the potential for some redevelopment behind the main batch of rain through at least mid morning. Will be monitoring for some fog and stratus potential this morning as well due to the newly saturated boundary layer and anticipated waning winds.
The focus then turns to the severe weather potential today. A warm front will move northward throughout the day along with a dryline developing near the Palmer Divide during the early afternoon which will push eastward. Currently it appears there will be 2 favored areas for severe thunderstorm development.
1) Along the dryline in eastern Colorado and into NW Kansas/SW Nebraska: Fairly confident in convective initation along the dryline as CAMS have been fairly consistent with initation in this area for the past 24 hours and HRRR paintball support this as well. The concern will be the magnitude and the coverage of storms. Recent runs of the HRRR have backed off on the intensity and keeps coverage to a storm or two; whereas the NAMNEST and some MPAS guidance has more intense storms and/or develops more of a cluster of storms. I'm continuing to favor the NAMNEST as it has consistently done the best this spring thus far. The MPAS guidance also does make sense as well given the clustering of storms as overall 0-6 shear doesn't look as impressive as last night now showing 25-30 knots vs the 35-40 knots that was seen last night. The 25-30 knots of bulk shear would favor more of a cluster solution. As for hazards for this area I do think that large to isolated very large hail and damaging winds (especially if more of a clustering forms). Not as concerned for very large hail as I was the past few nights given the lesser amounts of bulk shear and the potential for more competing updrafts. That being said if a discrete/dominant storm does form do think that potential would be there for 2+ inch hail due to MUCAPE being over 3000 j/kg and very steep lapse rates.
2) SE portions of the CWA (southern/eastern Wichita, southern Logan, southern Gove counties): signal for initation has been very consistent with rapidly intensifying cells occurring across SW Kansas and growing upscale as it moves ENE across Kansas. Confidence is a bit low with how much of the CWA this will affect. Do think the main concern with this would be damaging winds in excess of 70 mph along with some hail potential. Very good overall signal for a bow echo to develop across East Central Kansas and into Central Kansas; again the question will be how big of a footprint (if any) will it have on our CWA
Temperature wise for the day is a little tricky especially if stratus/fog does develop and/or if cloud cover lingers. I continue to trend in the low 80s for northeast portions of the area as this will be the relative better chance of the above variables affecting the temperature. A warm front will also be lifting north through out the day, so if that does surge north a bit quicker than anticipated each locale may be about 5 degrees to cool as some low 90s would be in the realm of possibility. Behind the dryline some near critical fire weather conditions still remains possible but should be confined to western portions of Cheyenne county Colorado. GFS forecast soundings which typically does best with mixing potential keeps winds around 20 knots for the duration of the afternoon; although some rogue gusts in excess of 25 mph may be possible especially later in the afternoon, will forego any fire highlights due to sporadic nature of the gusts.
Sunday night into Monday morning will see another surge of moisture from the south. Guidance is also picking up on some fog potential within the vicinity of a developing surface low across SW Kansas, where winds will be more light and variable. There is enough signal for fog that have introduced patchy fog across the eastern counties with some dense fog possible at times.
Monday will see another potential for severe weather across the Tri- State area. A longwave trough from the SW CONUS will eject another wave out onto the Plains during the late afternoon/early evening hours. The main wave does look to eject a bit further north which should keep any severe threat north of Interstate 70 and may not even happen until after sunset. Some large hail threat up to ping pong ball, and perhaps some tornado threat may develop as the LLJ interacts with the developing MCS. Very heavy rainfall does appear possible with this activity as well with 1-1.25 PWAT value. The continued additional lift from the LLJ may support some backbuilding potential which may increase the excessive rainfall threat but the continued signal for very quick Corfidi vectors should keep any flood threat to a minimum.
Temperatures for the day appear to be a bit challenging as status or fog may linger through the day. Started a trend to lower temperatures with a conshort/NAM blend to get temperatures into the low 70s to low 80s across the area. But if the stratus indeed does hold strong then temperatures may be about 10 degrees to warm.
Before I get that aggressive with temperatures want to see more consistency than two models showing this.
Tuesday, a cold front looks to move across the area with another potential for rainfall. The severe threat currently doesn't look as favorable mainly due to a lack of instability. Showers/storms look to develop along and behind the front. GFS is showing a 10-15 mb pressure rise over 3 hours which may support some strong to damaging wind threat especially if precipitation is ongoing due to downward momentum transfer. Continue to watch the potential for frost across Colorado counties and perhaps as far east as the Highway 27 corridor Wednesday morning but continues to be dependent on quickly cloud cover does move out of the area.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 215 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Broad southwesterly flow continues across the central CONUS through the entire long term period. Embedded shortwave troughs will provide near daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Severe chances appear rather limited however, mainly due to a lack of instability. The one exception might be Thursday, with decent moisture return resulting in instability of 1000-2000 j/kg by the afternoon. However, Thursday is also the day with the lowest deep layer shear, 20-30 kts, so that may limit any severe potential. For Wednesday and Friday, very little instability, either surface based or elevated, is forecast for the area. There is some weak instability by Saturday, along with very good deep layer shear, which may result in low probabilities for severe storms.
Temperatures through the period show some minor fluctuations associated with occasional frontal passages. The coolest day will be Wednesday with lower 70s, and the warmest will be Thursday with low to mid 80s, then 70s and 80s for Friday and Saturday. Some patchy frost possible Wednesday morning in Colorado with upper 30s currently forecast for lows.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1056 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024
For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast through most of the period. Will need to watch for some potential MVFR or IFR ceilings as there could be some moisture moving in and saturating the lowest 2000ft. Chances have decreased compared to the prior TAF forecast so have opted for only MVFR ceilings at this time. Otherwise, storms are forecast to move near or over the terminal during the late afternoon hours. Storms may just form over the terminal so will need to watch the 21Z-02Z timeframe. Severe weather is also possible with large hail and damaging wind gusts.
For KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through most of the period. Showers and storms will remain possible through the first 9 hours of the period as guidance suggests that a boundary on the back side of the current line may spark more storms close to 12Z. With the moisture in the area, ceilings could still drop to MVFR levels around 09Z. The ceilings and any lingering shower/storms should clear by the late morning hours. Around 00Z, will need to watch for more storms, though guidance has been favoring tracks away from the terminal. However, if a storm did form or move over the terminal, it could be severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 247 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and some storms look to continue through mid morning.
- Severe storms remain forecasted for today with hail around two inches in diameter and wind gusts around 70 mph possible.
- Storms; some severe north of Interstate 70 are forecast Monday. Main hazards are large hail, damaging winds and torrential rainfall.
- Cooler with frost concerns mid week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 244 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Showers and storms continue to push off to the east; some continued isentropic lift will continue to support the potential for some redevelopment behind the main batch of rain through at least mid morning. Will be monitoring for some fog and stratus potential this morning as well due to the newly saturated boundary layer and anticipated waning winds.
The focus then turns to the severe weather potential today. A warm front will move northward throughout the day along with a dryline developing near the Palmer Divide during the early afternoon which will push eastward. Currently it appears there will be 2 favored areas for severe thunderstorm development.
1) Along the dryline in eastern Colorado and into NW Kansas/SW Nebraska: Fairly confident in convective initation along the dryline as CAMS have been fairly consistent with initation in this area for the past 24 hours and HRRR paintball support this as well. The concern will be the magnitude and the coverage of storms. Recent runs of the HRRR have backed off on the intensity and keeps coverage to a storm or two; whereas the NAMNEST and some MPAS guidance has more intense storms and/or develops more of a cluster of storms. I'm continuing to favor the NAMNEST as it has consistently done the best this spring thus far. The MPAS guidance also does make sense as well given the clustering of storms as overall 0-6 shear doesn't look as impressive as last night now showing 25-30 knots vs the 35-40 knots that was seen last night. The 25-30 knots of bulk shear would favor more of a cluster solution. As for hazards for this area I do think that large to isolated very large hail and damaging winds (especially if more of a clustering forms). Not as concerned for very large hail as I was the past few nights given the lesser amounts of bulk shear and the potential for more competing updrafts. That being said if a discrete/dominant storm does form do think that potential would be there for 2+ inch hail due to MUCAPE being over 3000 j/kg and very steep lapse rates.
2) SE portions of the CWA (southern/eastern Wichita, southern Logan, southern Gove counties): signal for initation has been very consistent with rapidly intensifying cells occurring across SW Kansas and growing upscale as it moves ENE across Kansas. Confidence is a bit low with how much of the CWA this will affect. Do think the main concern with this would be damaging winds in excess of 70 mph along with some hail potential. Very good overall signal for a bow echo to develop across East Central Kansas and into Central Kansas; again the question will be how big of a footprint (if any) will it have on our CWA
Temperature wise for the day is a little tricky especially if stratus/fog does develop and/or if cloud cover lingers. I continue to trend in the low 80s for northeast portions of the area as this will be the relative better chance of the above variables affecting the temperature. A warm front will also be lifting north through out the day, so if that does surge north a bit quicker than anticipated each locale may be about 5 degrees to cool as some low 90s would be in the realm of possibility. Behind the dryline some near critical fire weather conditions still remains possible but should be confined to western portions of Cheyenne county Colorado. GFS forecast soundings which typically does best with mixing potential keeps winds around 20 knots for the duration of the afternoon; although some rogue gusts in excess of 25 mph may be possible especially later in the afternoon, will forego any fire highlights due to sporadic nature of the gusts.
Sunday night into Monday morning will see another surge of moisture from the south. Guidance is also picking up on some fog potential within the vicinity of a developing surface low across SW Kansas, where winds will be more light and variable. There is enough signal for fog that have introduced patchy fog across the eastern counties with some dense fog possible at times.
Monday will see another potential for severe weather across the Tri- State area. A longwave trough from the SW CONUS will eject another wave out onto the Plains during the late afternoon/early evening hours. The main wave does look to eject a bit further north which should keep any severe threat north of Interstate 70 and may not even happen until after sunset. Some large hail threat up to ping pong ball, and perhaps some tornado threat may develop as the LLJ interacts with the developing MCS. Very heavy rainfall does appear possible with this activity as well with 1-1.25 PWAT value. The continued additional lift from the LLJ may support some backbuilding potential which may increase the excessive rainfall threat but the continued signal for very quick Corfidi vectors should keep any flood threat to a minimum.
Temperatures for the day appear to be a bit challenging as status or fog may linger through the day. Started a trend to lower temperatures with a conshort/NAM blend to get temperatures into the low 70s to low 80s across the area. But if the stratus indeed does hold strong then temperatures may be about 10 degrees to warm.
Before I get that aggressive with temperatures want to see more consistency than two models showing this.
Tuesday, a cold front looks to move across the area with another potential for rainfall. The severe threat currently doesn't look as favorable mainly due to a lack of instability. Showers/storms look to develop along and behind the front. GFS is showing a 10-15 mb pressure rise over 3 hours which may support some strong to damaging wind threat especially if precipitation is ongoing due to downward momentum transfer. Continue to watch the potential for frost across Colorado counties and perhaps as far east as the Highway 27 corridor Wednesday morning but continues to be dependent on quickly cloud cover does move out of the area.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 215 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Broad southwesterly flow continues across the central CONUS through the entire long term period. Embedded shortwave troughs will provide near daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Severe chances appear rather limited however, mainly due to a lack of instability. The one exception might be Thursday, with decent moisture return resulting in instability of 1000-2000 j/kg by the afternoon. However, Thursday is also the day with the lowest deep layer shear, 20-30 kts, so that may limit any severe potential. For Wednesday and Friday, very little instability, either surface based or elevated, is forecast for the area. There is some weak instability by Saturday, along with very good deep layer shear, which may result in low probabilities for severe storms.
Temperatures through the period show some minor fluctuations associated with occasional frontal passages. The coolest day will be Wednesday with lower 70s, and the warmest will be Thursday with low to mid 80s, then 70s and 80s for Friday and Saturday. Some patchy frost possible Wednesday morning in Colorado with upper 30s currently forecast for lows.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1056 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024
For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast through most of the period. Will need to watch for some potential MVFR or IFR ceilings as there could be some moisture moving in and saturating the lowest 2000ft. Chances have decreased compared to the prior TAF forecast so have opted for only MVFR ceilings at this time. Otherwise, storms are forecast to move near or over the terminal during the late afternoon hours. Storms may just form over the terminal so will need to watch the 21Z-02Z timeframe. Severe weather is also possible with large hail and damaging wind gusts.
For KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through most of the period. Showers and storms will remain possible through the first 9 hours of the period as guidance suggests that a boundary on the back side of the current line may spark more storms close to 12Z. With the moisture in the area, ceilings could still drop to MVFR levels around 09Z. The ceilings and any lingering shower/storms should clear by the late morning hours. Around 00Z, will need to watch for more storms, though guidance has been favoring tracks away from the terminal. However, if a storm did form or move over the terminal, it could be severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
Goodland, KS,
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