Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Groveton, VA

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Moderating temperatures through midweek.

- 2) Fluctuating chances for wintry precipitation at the end of this week associated with multiple shortwaves.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Moderating temperatures through midweek.

Cool temperatures linger this morning with Cold Weather Advisories remaining in effect for portions of the Alleghenies and from NE Maryland to the DC metro area. Surface high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic today through Tuesday, yielding continued light winds and moderating temperatures. High temperatures today will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer compared to yesterday, with temperatures in the 20s to upper 30s.

High pressure remains overhead Tuesday morning as a low pressure system tracks north of the Great Lakes. The associated warm front lifts north through the region Tuesday with the associated cold front pushing through that night. In the wake of the warm front, high temperatures near 60 degrees in the Shenandoah Valley and southern portions of the forecast area. Further north, high temperatures will struggle to crack 50 degrees with the warm front moving through after peak daytime heating.

While dry conditions continue for most, gusty NW winds in the Alleghenies lead to a chance of precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday. High temperatures on Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday, with temps in the 30s to mid 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Fluctuating chances for wintry precipitation at the end of this week associated with multiple shortwaves.

An upper trough over the northeastern U.S. will begin to make its way eastward starting on Wednesday, and this resulting pressure gradient will cause winds to pick back up to 10-20 knots NW here in the Mid-Atlantic during the later half of the week. Associated with this is a small chance for precipitation, primarily over the Alleghenies. A second shortwave trough coming from the southwest could bring additional impacts to the region towards the end of the week, and this potential second shortwave brings more widespread chances for a wintry mix throughout the CWA starting next Friday and into next weekend.
Model guidance is still fluctuating quite a bit on the dynamics associated with these shortwave troughs, so the timing and magnitude of these events could still change with updated guidance on the evolving upper dynamics behind these features.
Generally speaking, guidance broadly shows a Miller B type low setup chasing a retreating cold airmass that briefly slides over the area late week. This signal is quite evident in the 12Z ensemble guidance with a myriad of lows tracking off the southeastern Virginia coast late Sunday/early Monday (Feb 15-16). Will continue to monitor this situation as additional model runs help to provide more insight on the overall synoptic setup.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions continue across all terminals today as surface high pressure builds over the forecast area. Winds remain light out of the northwest, blowing around 5 knots through the day. As a warm front lifts north through the area, cloud cover increases across the terminals. VFR conditions are expected to continue across the terminals as dry conditions persist through Wednesday. Winds shift to southerly Tuesday, then westerly Tuesday night, before becoming northwesterly in the wake of a cold front Wednesday.

Surface high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday, yielding light winds and VFR conditions across all terminals. Winds will begin to pick back up again on Wednesday, corresponding to an upper trough centered over the Northeast before moving offshore by Friday. During this time, NW winds gusting up to 20 knots are possible. Lower CIGs are possible during this timeframe if the trough tracks more southward, but VSBYs should still be predominantly VFR at terminals.

MARINE
Northwest winds remain below SCA criteria through Tuesday morning. Winds shift to southerly on Tuesday as a warm front lifts across the waters and are expected to remain below SCA criteria through Tuesday night. In the wake of a cold front, winds shift to northwesterly on Wednesday with Small Craft Advisories likely needed.

Winds associated with an upper trough later next week will bring 10- 20 knot winds NW between Wednesday and Thursday, and could persist through Friday. SCAs are likely during these days, especially in the southern Chesapeake Bay area.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for DCZ001.
MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016-018-501>510.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ053- 054-501-502-505-506-526-527.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ501- 503-504.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.