Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 8:32 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 155 Am Edt Sun May 12 2024
Overnight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less. Sun - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming se after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely. Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms. Wed - NE winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming n. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers likely . Thu - N winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 249 Am Edt Sun May 12 2024
Synopsis - Frontal boundary south of the area will lift back northward as a warm front into tomorrow. Broad high pressure will exist across the area today, before moving quickly out to sea on Monday as front lifts north, with a fresh southeast to south breeze developing into early this week. Shower and Thunderstorm chances steadily increase through early to mid week.
Gulf stream hazards - None.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Friday, may 10th.
41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 29 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS61 KLWX 120129 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 929 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure moving across the area will bring showers and a few thunderstorms through tonight. A lingering upper level disturbance may allow showers to persist into Sunday along with cool temperatures. Drier conditions return with brief high pressure Monday. A slow moving low pressure system will bring more unsettled weather Tuesday into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
The initial band of light to moderate rain showers has nearly cleared the entire forecast area. As of 900 PM, this decaying swath of showers stretches from Cecil County down through the Eastern Shore into Calvert County. After locations cleared in the wake, low to mid clouds continue to filter in leading to mostly cloudy skies. Farther upstream, a cluster of severe thunderstorms originally from southwestern Pennsylvania has begun exiting Garrett County. As this feature tracks near a warm front, a lingering severe risk persists into northern Maryland and portions of the eastern West Virginia panhandle. This storm cluster will push across the I-81 corridor by around 10 PM before continuing its trek eastward. For those looking to view the geomagnetic storm and resultant aurora, increased clouds from this system may hinder viewing in spots.

Heading through the night, conditions will dry out from west to east. The 12Z HRRR mean keeps most areas along and east of U.S.
15 in low clouds with more clearing off to the west. Forecast low temperatures drop into the mid 40s to low 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The aforementioned cold front will move east of the area Sunday morning, though some residual moisture on the backside of the broad low could bring some on-and-off showers along/north of US-50 through Sunday afternoon. Conditions dry out Sunday evening as high pressure builds in from the west. Highs generally be in the 60s, with some low 70s possible in Central VA Sunday afternoon. Overnight lows mostly in the 40s to low 50s.

For Monday, expect dry conditions as high temperatures reach back to the mid to upper 70s. An approaching upper disturbance looks to hold off until late Monday night, when scattered showers move into areas west of the Blue Ridge.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Monday looks to be our driest day of the next 7 days with mid level ridging overhead and surface high pressure sitting just to the south of the region. This will yield a seasonable Spring day with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and overnight lows in the 50s.

Unfortunately, the dry time will be brief as an upper trough develops in the lee of the Rockies, and deepens as it tracks eastward from the mid-Mississippi River Valley during the middle part of workweek. Meanwhile, high pressure will shift off the VA/NC coast Tuesday into Wednesday allowing for south to southeasterly return flow to ensue. This will allow Atlantic and eventually Gulf of Mexico moisture to increase across the region yielding daily isolated to scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Uncertainty remains in the placement and timing of the heaviest precipitation with a focus midweek (late Tuesday into Wednesday).
This is due largely in part to a warm frontal boundary that will be lifting northward into the region. The severe weather threat appears to be minimal with richer moisture suppressed toward the Gulf Coast.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible especially during the midweek timeframe due to increasing moisture and the placement of a warm front draped nearby. High temperatures will remain at or slightly below normal midweek. Expect highs in the low to mid 70s Wednesday and mid to upper 70s Thursday. Lows will fall into the mid to upper 50s.

Low pressure and its resulting trough depart offshore Thursday into Friday. A cold front will quickly follow bringing in drier air as high pressure builds over eastern Canada. The dry time once again will be short lived as another trough and area of low pressure approach from the Ohio River Valley.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
In the wake of the earlier band of showers, all TAF sites have recovered to VFR conditions. Based on the latest nighttime satellite imagery, low clouds have begun to develop in many spots. MVFR ceilings become likely overnight, continuing until around daybreak. Some showers exiting western Maryland will also impact all downstream locations outside of KCHO. Given a history of thunder, KMRB features a VCTS group from 10 PM until midnight.

The cold front sweeps through early Sunday morning, causing winds to shift northwest behind the front. Gusts to around 20 knots are likely from late morning through the afternoon Sunday.
VFR conditions expected through Monday as high pressure returns.

VFR conditions are expected with high pressure nearby. Sub VFR ceilings along with a showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday as an area of low pressure and front push into the region. Shower and thunderstorm chances look to linger Thursday with high pressure briefly returning Friday. South to southwesterly winds are expected Monday before switching to the south and southeast Tuesday and Wednesday. Gusts of 15 to 20 kts can be expected each afternoon.

MARINE
A cluster of showers with a history of severe weather continue to press eastward across western Maryland and the northeastern West Virginia panhandle. Given the decrease in lightning and near-zero instability over the waters, do not expect any impacts later this evening.

Winds increase this evening into part of tonight just ahead of the approaching cold front. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the waters of the Chesapeake Bay and Lower Tidal Potomac through 4 AM Sunday. Thereafter, winds should diminish late tonight.

Winds turn northwest behind the cold front Sunday morning, and could gust to SCA levels for a few hours during the afternoon. Winds diminish Sunday night into Monday as high pressure builds into the region.

SCA conditions will likely continue Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday as low pressure approaches from the south and high pressure pushes offshore. South to southeasterly winds will gusts up to 20 kts each day with the potential for a few thunderstorms on both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon/evening.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Additional periods of coastal flooding are expected tonight with a number of tidal sites in Coastal Flood Advisories. This extends over additional high tide cycles at many of these spots.
Afterwards, water levels should drop off Sunday as northwest flow kicks in across the area. However, a shift to easterly onshore winds Sunday evening into early Monday could bring anomalies back up again.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Sunday for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to 3 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ011.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ016-018.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ017.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 5 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ508.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ054.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ057.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ530>534-537- 538-543.

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Alexandria
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Sun -- 12:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:13 AM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:05 PM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:09 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Alexandria, Virginia, Tide feet

Mount Vernon
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Sun -- 12:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:48 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:40 AM EDT     2.61 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:44 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mount Vernon, Virginia, Tide feet

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