Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stone Harbor, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1. Showers and thunderstorms return and increase along with increasingly more humid for the first half of the week. There is potential for strong to severe thunderstorms both Monday and Tuesday, and potential for areas of heavy rain leading to flash flooding on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms return and increase along with increasingly more humid for the first half of the week. There is potential for strong to severe thunderstorms both Monday and Tuesday, and potential for areas of heavy rain leading to flash flooding on Tuesday.

As a strong upper-level ridge expands into the Plains early next week, northwesterly flow aloft will occur across much of the East. This ridge gets pushed back some as a potentially strong upper-level trough in eastern Canada sends spokes of energy southeastward across the Great Lakes and Northeast. This will initially allow for the upper-level trough to become more carved out across the Northeast by later this weekend. Some guidance maintains a vigorous shortwave riding over the ridge and sliding southeastward across the Great Lakes Monday and then across the Northeast during Tuesday. This results in some model solutions continuing to close off the trough across the Northeast Tuesday into Wednesday. Some other guidance is slower and weaker and thus does not close it off or briefly closes it off a day or two later. The upper-level system will drive surface low pressure and a cold front our way Tuesday into Wednesday. It will become much more humid during the first half of next week, with dew points looking to surge on Tuesday.

This will all result in an increase in convective chances Monday and especially Tuesday into Wednesday. While there remains some differences among the model guidance on the timing and strength of the features diving southeastward early next week, the setup would continue to favor upstream convective development given northwesterly flow aloft.

Monday's setup looks to be a pulsy, single to multi cell cluster environment with low shear and modest instability. Deep layer shear will be weak, only around 10-20 kts. Instability looks to be in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. DCAPE is also modest around 500-1000 J/kg. This setup will favor scattered, hit or miss type showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon hours, with a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms.
Any stronger storms could produce isolated strong to marginally severe wind gusts and brief heavy downpours. Our entire area is outlooked in a MARGINAL Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Monday. Scattered showers and storms may continue overnight as better forcing arrives aloft, though the severe threat will likely be minimal overnight.

Tuesday looks to feature the most widespread showers and thunderstorms. Height falls and jet dynamics aloft will favor convective development nearly all day as surface low pressure develops just to our west. This will keep a steady stream of warm, moist air pumping into the area and keeping the environment conditionally unstable despite cloud cover. PWats will rise to near 2" by the end of the day. Some models suggest we could have a stalled or slow moving frontal boundary across the central or northern portion of the forecast area, which could act as a focusing mechanism for heavy rainfall. Heavy rain leading to flash flooding could end up being a bigger concern and greater impact than the severe thunderstorm threat.

Long story short, a very active day is expected convection wise on Tuesday. A due southerly surface flow and the dynamics aloft will favor areas along and northwest of the I-95 corridor and/or the frontal boundary to be the focus of the heaviest rain, and areas along and southeast of the I-95 corridor and/or the frontal boundary where convection is less messy and the environment a bit less contaminated being the greater severe thunderstorm threat depending on exactly how the convection evolves. That still remains a little unclear at the moment, and may depend on how storms evolve upstream Monday and Monday night.

WPC has outlooked much of our area from the I-95 corridor and north in a SLIGHT Risk (level 2 out of 4) for excessive rainfall for Tuesday. SPC has outlooked the southern half of our area from the Philly metro and south in a SLIGHT Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, low pressure looks to be offshore to our east.
Scattered showers and storms will likely develop again by afternoon, at least across our NJ and PA zones, but the severe thunderstorm and heavy rain threat look to be lower and focused across southern New England given the setup. We'll continue to monitor this period though.

Thursday and Friday will feature continued chances of scattered showers and storms (20-40% chance), especially Thursday as the Tuesday-Wednesday system slowly pushes east. Details on the late week period are very uncertain.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. East-northeast winds around 5 kts or less in the morning become east-southeast around 5-10 knots in the afternoon. Winds mainly south to southwest at ABE/RDG, where there is a 10-15% chance of a shower or storm late. Winds may become light and variable at times. High confidence in VFR conditions.

Tonight...VFR. Winds lessening to less than 5 kts favoring a south to southwest direction, but winds may become calm at times. High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 18Z and at night. Brief restrictions possible at times.

Tuesday...Restrictions likely in widespread showers and thunderstorms. Southerly wind gusts up to 20 kts possible.

Wednesday and Thursday...Prevailing VFR, but isolated to scattered showers and storms anticipated each day could cause brief restrictions.

MARINE
No marine hazards expected through tonight. Winds mainly out of the east around 10 kts or less with seas of 2-3 feet.

Outlook...

Monday...No prevailing marine hazards expected, however scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the coast.

Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible as southerly flow increases. Showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday and Thursday...No prevailing marine hazards expected, however scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the coast.

Rip Currents...

For today, east-northeast winds generally around 10 mph.
Breaking waves of 2-3 feet for the Jersey Shore and 1-2 feet for Delaware beaches. Dominant northeasterly swell around 3 feet at 6-7 seconds in length, with an additional southeasterly swell of 1-2 feet at around 8 seconds. Have maintained the MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at all area beaches.

For Monday, south winds around 5-10 mph. Breaking waves of 1-2 feet along most of the coast, though they could approach 3 feet for southern parts of the Jersey Shore. There will be multiple swell groups, but all of them look to be fairly light and short in period. Given the more shore-parallel flow and light swell, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at all area beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.