Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Basye, VA

KEY MESSAGES
-1) Today will bring another day of below average temperatures, but with less wind, before a warming trend ensues.

-2) Temperatures warm through the weekend with a cold front bringing cooler temperatures early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Today will bring another day of below average temperatures, but with less wind, before a warming trend ensues.

The early morning surface analysis places a broad area of high pressure which extends from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys down to the northern Gulf of America. Being just east of the anticyclone, a residual light west-northwesterly wind remains over the local area. Despite such winds, the cold and dry nature of the air mass has allowed 07Z/3 AM temperatures to plunge into the 20s, with spotty upper teens. The true cool spot is along the Allegheny Front with widespread teens noted, much of which is aided by recent snowpack.

Based on nighttime satellite imagery trends, an uptick in mid/high clouds is expected ahead of a shortwave moving across the Ohio Valley. These should largely stick around through the morning hours before some improvements occur for the second half of the day. With high pressure shifting position across the eastern U.S., winds eventually shift to southerly by early this afternoon. Relatively weak gradients will keep winds weaker than recent days, with any gusts staying around 10 mph or less, locally up to 20 mph in the higher terrain. Today's forecast highs will again be in the upper 30s to low 40s, but a notable warm up occurs from the Blue Ridge westward. Temperatures rebound by around 10 to 15 degrees which carries Allegheny Mountain highs into the upper 20s to mid 30s. Heading into tonight, while chilly, temperatures return closer to freezing given light southerly flow.

For Thursday and Friday, high pressure persists near the Eastern Seaboard. Looking aloft, northwesterly flow prevails given well above average heights centered over the southwestern U.S.
However, the 1000-500 mb layer gradually warms through the period with 24-hour rises of around 6 to 8 dm per day.
Increasing thicknesses coupled with mainly south to southwesterly flow will return temperatures to the 50s by Thursday before pushing into the low 60s on Friday. Some shower chances move into the picture by Friday evening/night as a clipper system races across the area. With Friday night's low temperatures in the 40s, it will be an all rain event.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures warm through the weekend with a cold front bringing cooler temperatures early next week.

Surface high pressure centered over the southeast remains overhead Saturday and Sunday with temperatures expected to gradually warm each day. Highs on Saturday will range from the mid 50s along the MD/PA border to the low 70s in central VA. On Sunday, high temperatures will warm further with those in northern MD in the 60s and those in central VA in the mid 70s.

Precipitation chances increase Sunday as a cold front drops through the forecast area. In the wake of the front, Canadian surface high pressure builds overhead with dry conditions and cooler temperatures expected on Monday. Highs will be in the 40s to mid 60s across the area. High pressure continues to build overhead on Tuesday with highs in the 40s to low 50s. A surface trough along the Alleghenies will bring increased precipitation chances on Tuesday. Precipitation chances remain low (less than 30 percent) at this time, although cold temperatures could lead to some snow west of the Blue Ridge.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure will dominate the pattern through Friday which will favor prevailing VFR conditions. Winds will initially be out of the northwest before shifting to southerly for the second half of today. As high pressure relocates the next couple of days, winds turn south to southwesterly on Thursday and Friday.
Gradients remain weak which limits the wind gust potential.

Southwest winds on Saturday blow 5 to 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots expected. On Sunday, west winds in the morning shift to northwest in the wake of a cold front Sunday afternoon. Winds increase to around 10 knots, gusting to 20 knots. Precipitation chances increase across the terminals Sunday afternoon, although remain low. VFR conditions are expected both days with brief restrictions possible during precipitation on Sunday.

MARINE
A brisk northwesterly wind continues from the Bay Bridge southward in the Chesapeake Bay as well as for the lower tidal Potomac. Gusts up to 20 knots are possible through 6 AM with Small Craft Advisories being extended to cover this threat. This could linger slightly longer over southern sections of the bay.
Winds shift to southerly for the second half of today. Weak gradients through Friday should limit the gust potential over the waters. Some southerly channeling effects are possible by late Friday which could near advisory caliber.

Southwest winds remain below SCA criteria on Saturday. Winds increase overnight with SCAs possible across the open waters. West winds on Sunday morning shift to northwest in the wake of a cold front Sunday afternoon. Small Craft Advisories are likely throughout the day as winds gust 20 knots.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ532>534-537-540>543.