Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Basye, VA
December 8, 2023 10:24 AM EST (15:24 UTC)
Sunrise 7:18AM Sunset 4:56PM Moonrise 2:46AM Moonset 2:07PM
ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 933 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Rest of today..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Rest of today..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 933 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
broad high pressure will build across the southeast states through Saturday. A strong frontal system will impact the region Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure will return Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed starting Saturday night, and are likely Sunday into Monday. Gales are possible Sunday into Monday, as well.
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
broad high pressure will build across the southeast states through Saturday. A strong frontal system will impact the region Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure will return Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed starting Saturday night, and are likely Sunday into Monday. Gales are possible Sunday into Monday, as well.
Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KLWX 081436 AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 936 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will slowly push east off the southeast coast through Saturday, but it will remain close enough to bring dry conditions to our area. A strong frontal system will impact the region on Sunday. High pressure will return Monday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Mid-morning update: 12z IAD sounding shows a strong inversion just off the surface, with relatively mild air in place aloft.
As a result, temperatures should climb quickly this morning as mixing commences. No major changes were made to the previous forecast
Previous discussion follows
A weak upper-level disturbance will pass through this morning, bringing some high and mid-level clouds before upper- level ridging builds overhead this afternoon into tonight. Surface high pressure will slowly shift off the southeast coast through tonight. Therefore, a southerly flow combined with more sunshine and rising 500mb heights (upper- level ridging) will allow for a milder afternoon. Highs will be in the 50s for most areas with lower to middle 60s in some of the valleys.
More dry conditions are expected tonight along with some high and mid-level clouds as another weak disturbance passes through. The gradient will remain weak and the cloud deck should be thin enough for rural areas and sheltered valleys to decouple. Lows will range from the upper 20s and lower 30s in the colder valleys and rural areas to the upper 30s/near 40 elsewhere. There may be some fog and low clouds that develop late tonight in central/northeast MD into northern VA and eastern WV. However, confidence is low since low-level moisture is still limited.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The high will move further away from the southeast coast Saturday while an upper-level trough digs over the central CONUS into the Great Lakes. A southerly flow will continue Saturday, and there should be enough sunshine for another mild afternoon.
Highs will be in the 50s and 60s for most areas. However, there will be some more high and mid-level clouds as moisture begins to increase ahead of the upper-level trough.
The upper-level trough will continue to dig as it extends over the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states Saturday night. The southerly flow will strengthen, and this will cause increasing clouds as deeper moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean begin to move into the area. Although most of the dynamics will remain to our west, the strengthening low-level jet along with warm advection will cause some showers to move into the area, mainly overnight. The best chance for showers will be west of Interstate 95.
The potent upper-level trough with northern and southern stream energy will continue to slowly pass through the Great Lakes, Tennessee Valley, and Gulf Coast states Sunday while surface high pressure remains well offshore over the Atlantic. The cold front associated with the trough axis will slowly approach from the west during this time. Most guidance indicates that the northern and southern stream systems will not completely phase, and the system should be more progressive (as more energy dives into the Pacific Northwest). However, it is still a potent system and this can be seen by the strong meridional component to the upper-level trough axis. Therefore, warm and moisture advection will be deep ahead of the cold front, allowing plenty of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean to advect into the area. Also, the thermal gradient will be quite strong with subtropical air being pulled into the area ahead of the cold front and a Canadian airmass on the other side of the boundary. A strong low-level jet will also aid in moisture advection as well. Latest NAEFS indicates pwats to be about 3-4 standard deviations above climo which significant.
Therefore, widespread rain is expected across the area Sunday into Sunday evening and it will be breezy. A line of heavier showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will most likely accompany the frontal passage Sunday afternoon/evening. Given the strong winds aloft, this has the potential to mix down gusty to perhaps even locally damaging wind gusts. One mitigating factor will be the lack of instability that is progged in the models. It will be difficult to get instability rooted within the boundary layer.
Therefore, certainty for damaging wind gusts is low at this time. A soaking rain is expected given the dynamics and moisture associated with this system. Rainfall amounts around 1-3" are most likely. The recently dry conditions may minimize the flood threat, but localized flooding cannot be ruled out given the higher rainfall amounts and the fact that rainfall rates may be heavy at times with the frontal passage.
Colder air will move in behind the front, first later Sunday evening in the Allegheny Highlands and then Sunday night from northwest to southeast across the rest of the area. With the upper-level trough axis lagging behind the frontal passage by a few hours or so, this suggests that there will be some anafrontal characteristics to the boundary. Therefore, moderate precipitation is expected for a few hours or so behind the cold front before drier air eventually works its way in overnight.
There will be enough cold air for rain to change to snow in some areas. As of now, it appears that the best chance for accumulation will be along the ridges of the Blue Ridge, Potomac Highlands, and Allegheny Highlands where cold air will move in sooner. For locations along and west of the Allegheny Front, an upslope component to the low-level flow will cause additional snow showers to last longer behind the cold front, enhancing potential for accumulating snow. Winter weather headlines may be needed for the mountains. For the valleys, any chance for accumulating snow is low, but this will continue to be monitored.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
After the weekend system exits, upslope precipitation along the Alleghenies may continue into Monday morning. Gusty NW winds also likely persist through the day Monday.
Surface high pressure is expected to build into the region Monday and will be the feature dominating the weather for our area through the remainder of the week, leading to dry conditions. A dry reinforcing cold front may pass through around mid-week.
The week starts with slightly below normal temperatures with the sharp drop behind the initial cold front, but gradually moderate to near normal to slightly above normal through the week with ample sunshine under high pressure.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through this evening. Low clouds and fog are possible late tonight into Saturday morning, but confidence is too low to mention in the TAF at this time.
VFR conditions are expected Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. However, lower clouds and showers will gradually overspread the area later Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
A soaking rain and subVFR cigs (IFR possible) is expected later Sunday morning into Sunday night. A line of heavier showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will pass through the terminals later late Sunday afternoon and evening. Strong winds may accompany this line of convection. Southerly winds ahead of the boundary may become gusty Sunday afternoon. Gusts most likely will be around 20 to 30 knots. A strong wind shift to the northwest is expected behind the cold front Sunday night. Rain will gradually end, but it may mix with some wet snow before ending (especially around KMRB). Chances for any accumulation are low at this time.
VFR conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday. The main aviation concern would be the gusty winds on Monday, gusting out of the NW at 25-30kt during the day. Winds should diminish in the evening.
MARINE
A southerly flow is expected to develop today and persist through Saturday. Winds should be below SCA criteria for the most part, but it may be close over the open waters tonight due to channeling.
Southerly winds will begin to increase Saturday night, winds may approach SCA criteria toward Sunday morning.
SCAs will likely be needed Sunday through Sunday night as southerly winds strengthen ahead of a cold front through Sunday evening before turning northwest behind the cold front overnight. A few gale gusts are possible, especially Sunday night.
A line of heavier showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will most likely pass through the waters Sunday evening. Locally strong winds are possible with this line of convection.
Winds over the waters remain elevated out of the NW on Monday behind the passing cold front, likely necessitating SCAs. Some gusts reaching gale-force is also possible. Winds are expected to diminish late Monday night and shift out of the SW, and remain below SCA on Tuesday.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Water levels will hover around action stage today and Saturday with light southerly flow over the waters. Southerly winds increase Sunday ahead of an approaching system and increase tidal anomalies, increasing the chances for minor tidal flooding.
A strong offshore flow will return Sunday night into Monday.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 936 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will slowly push east off the southeast coast through Saturday, but it will remain close enough to bring dry conditions to our area. A strong frontal system will impact the region on Sunday. High pressure will return Monday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Mid-morning update: 12z IAD sounding shows a strong inversion just off the surface, with relatively mild air in place aloft.
As a result, temperatures should climb quickly this morning as mixing commences. No major changes were made to the previous forecast
Previous discussion follows
A weak upper-level disturbance will pass through this morning, bringing some high and mid-level clouds before upper- level ridging builds overhead this afternoon into tonight. Surface high pressure will slowly shift off the southeast coast through tonight. Therefore, a southerly flow combined with more sunshine and rising 500mb heights (upper- level ridging) will allow for a milder afternoon. Highs will be in the 50s for most areas with lower to middle 60s in some of the valleys.
More dry conditions are expected tonight along with some high and mid-level clouds as another weak disturbance passes through. The gradient will remain weak and the cloud deck should be thin enough for rural areas and sheltered valleys to decouple. Lows will range from the upper 20s and lower 30s in the colder valleys and rural areas to the upper 30s/near 40 elsewhere. There may be some fog and low clouds that develop late tonight in central/northeast MD into northern VA and eastern WV. However, confidence is low since low-level moisture is still limited.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The high will move further away from the southeast coast Saturday while an upper-level trough digs over the central CONUS into the Great Lakes. A southerly flow will continue Saturday, and there should be enough sunshine for another mild afternoon.
Highs will be in the 50s and 60s for most areas. However, there will be some more high and mid-level clouds as moisture begins to increase ahead of the upper-level trough.
The upper-level trough will continue to dig as it extends over the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states Saturday night. The southerly flow will strengthen, and this will cause increasing clouds as deeper moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean begin to move into the area. Although most of the dynamics will remain to our west, the strengthening low-level jet along with warm advection will cause some showers to move into the area, mainly overnight. The best chance for showers will be west of Interstate 95.
The potent upper-level trough with northern and southern stream energy will continue to slowly pass through the Great Lakes, Tennessee Valley, and Gulf Coast states Sunday while surface high pressure remains well offshore over the Atlantic. The cold front associated with the trough axis will slowly approach from the west during this time. Most guidance indicates that the northern and southern stream systems will not completely phase, and the system should be more progressive (as more energy dives into the Pacific Northwest). However, it is still a potent system and this can be seen by the strong meridional component to the upper-level trough axis. Therefore, warm and moisture advection will be deep ahead of the cold front, allowing plenty of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean to advect into the area. Also, the thermal gradient will be quite strong with subtropical air being pulled into the area ahead of the cold front and a Canadian airmass on the other side of the boundary. A strong low-level jet will also aid in moisture advection as well. Latest NAEFS indicates pwats to be about 3-4 standard deviations above climo which significant.
Therefore, widespread rain is expected across the area Sunday into Sunday evening and it will be breezy. A line of heavier showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will most likely accompany the frontal passage Sunday afternoon/evening. Given the strong winds aloft, this has the potential to mix down gusty to perhaps even locally damaging wind gusts. One mitigating factor will be the lack of instability that is progged in the models. It will be difficult to get instability rooted within the boundary layer.
Therefore, certainty for damaging wind gusts is low at this time. A soaking rain is expected given the dynamics and moisture associated with this system. Rainfall amounts around 1-3" are most likely. The recently dry conditions may minimize the flood threat, but localized flooding cannot be ruled out given the higher rainfall amounts and the fact that rainfall rates may be heavy at times with the frontal passage.
Colder air will move in behind the front, first later Sunday evening in the Allegheny Highlands and then Sunday night from northwest to southeast across the rest of the area. With the upper-level trough axis lagging behind the frontal passage by a few hours or so, this suggests that there will be some anafrontal characteristics to the boundary. Therefore, moderate precipitation is expected for a few hours or so behind the cold front before drier air eventually works its way in overnight.
There will be enough cold air for rain to change to snow in some areas. As of now, it appears that the best chance for accumulation will be along the ridges of the Blue Ridge, Potomac Highlands, and Allegheny Highlands where cold air will move in sooner. For locations along and west of the Allegheny Front, an upslope component to the low-level flow will cause additional snow showers to last longer behind the cold front, enhancing potential for accumulating snow. Winter weather headlines may be needed for the mountains. For the valleys, any chance for accumulating snow is low, but this will continue to be monitored.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
After the weekend system exits, upslope precipitation along the Alleghenies may continue into Monday morning. Gusty NW winds also likely persist through the day Monday.
Surface high pressure is expected to build into the region Monday and will be the feature dominating the weather for our area through the remainder of the week, leading to dry conditions. A dry reinforcing cold front may pass through around mid-week.
The week starts with slightly below normal temperatures with the sharp drop behind the initial cold front, but gradually moderate to near normal to slightly above normal through the week with ample sunshine under high pressure.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through this evening. Low clouds and fog are possible late tonight into Saturday morning, but confidence is too low to mention in the TAF at this time.
VFR conditions are expected Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. However, lower clouds and showers will gradually overspread the area later Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
A soaking rain and subVFR cigs (IFR possible) is expected later Sunday morning into Sunday night. A line of heavier showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will pass through the terminals later late Sunday afternoon and evening. Strong winds may accompany this line of convection. Southerly winds ahead of the boundary may become gusty Sunday afternoon. Gusts most likely will be around 20 to 30 knots. A strong wind shift to the northwest is expected behind the cold front Sunday night. Rain will gradually end, but it may mix with some wet snow before ending (especially around KMRB). Chances for any accumulation are low at this time.
VFR conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday. The main aviation concern would be the gusty winds on Monday, gusting out of the NW at 25-30kt during the day. Winds should diminish in the evening.
MARINE
A southerly flow is expected to develop today and persist through Saturday. Winds should be below SCA criteria for the most part, but it may be close over the open waters tonight due to channeling.
Southerly winds will begin to increase Saturday night, winds may approach SCA criteria toward Sunday morning.
SCAs will likely be needed Sunday through Sunday night as southerly winds strengthen ahead of a cold front through Sunday evening before turning northwest behind the cold front overnight. A few gale gusts are possible, especially Sunday night.
A line of heavier showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will most likely pass through the waters Sunday evening. Locally strong winds are possible with this line of convection.
Winds over the waters remain elevated out of the NW on Monday behind the passing cold front, likely necessitating SCAs. Some gusts reaching gale-force is also possible. Winds are expected to diminish late Monday night and shift out of the SW, and remain below SCA on Tuesday.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Water levels will hover around action stage today and Saturday with light southerly flow over the waters. Southerly winds increase Sunday ahead of an approaching system and increase tidal anomalies, increasing the chances for minor tidal flooding.
A strong offshore flow will return Sunday night into Monday.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLUA LURAY CAVERNS,VA | 18 sm | 29 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 37°F | 32°F | 81% | 30.16 |
Wind History from W45
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off) Help
Fredericksburg
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:39 AM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 03:21 AM EST 2.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:13 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 09:39 AM EST 0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:02 PM EST Moonset
Fri -- 03:42 PM EST 2.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:49 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 10:38 PM EST 0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:39 AM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 03:21 AM EST 2.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:13 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 09:39 AM EST 0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:02 PM EST Moonset
Fri -- 03:42 PM EST 2.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:49 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 10:38 PM EST 0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.1 |
| 1 am |
| 1.8 |
| 2 am |
| 2.2 |
| 3 am |
| 2.4 |
| 4 am |
| 2.3 |
| 5 am |
| 2 |
| 6 am |
| 1.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 0.4 |
| 9 am |
| 0.1 |
| 10 am |
| 0.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.2 |
Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:51 AM EST 1.15 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:39 AM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 07:13 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 08:22 AM EST 0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:01 PM EST Moonset
Fri -- 02:24 PM EST 1.34 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:48 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 09:00 PM EST 0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:51 AM EST 1.15 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:39 AM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 07:13 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 08:22 AM EST 0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:01 PM EST Moonset
Fri -- 02:24 PM EST 1.34 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:48 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 09:00 PM EST 0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Aquia Creek, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1 |
| 1 am |
| 1.1 |
| 2 am |
| 1.1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 0.7 |
| 6 am |
| 0.6 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.2 |
| 9 am |
| 0.2 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.6 |
Sterling, VA,
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