Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Basye, VA

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Latest satellite imagery shows a slew of cirrus clouds spanning much of the Mid-Atlantic. A very dry airmass resides over the region as subsidence continues to dominate on the north side of an area of low pressure slowly moving offshore the VA/NC border.
The dry airmass is reflected in latest ACARS as well as sfc Td obs (upper 30s to low 40s). Clouds should thin through the day today as the cold front associated with aforementioned area of low pressure sags further south and high pressure builds in from the north.

Thu will feature more sun with only patchy high clouds expected with continued dry wx. Today & Thu will be very similar temperature wise, with highs in the low to mid 70s today, and a couple degrees warmer Thu. Lows will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s both nights. RH values will fall into the 30% range each afternoon, but the lack of wind and increasing green- up should prevent any widespread fire weather concerns.

As low pressure moves toward the upper Great Lakes Thu night, the frontal zone to the south and west will begin lifting north as a warm front. While clouds may start to increase, any rain will likely hold off until Fri afternoon/evening. However, not looking at any widespread rain until the cold front moves through Sat.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Sharp cold front associated with a southern Ontario and northern New England upper low will cross the area around 18Z Sat with showers and possible t-storms impacting the fcst area during the morning into early afternoon. High pressure builds over the area Sat night through Monday morning supporting cooler temperatures and fair weather conditions. High pressure will move offshore Monday afternoon with srly flow developing and returning moisture into the area. Another cold front will cross the area during the middle of next week bringing the next chance of showers for Wed night and Thu of next week.

AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions are likely through Thu as high pressure builds nearby. Calm winds through daybreak become light out of the E/NE today, before becoming more SE'ly Thu. As a warm front approaches, overrunning moisture could result in some sub- VFR ceilings by late Thu night into Fri. Any restrictions associated with rain showers likely wait til late Fri.

Sub-VFR conditions likely continue into Sat as a cold front approaches and moves through the terminals. Southerly winds ahead of the front shift to west/northwesterly in the wake of the frontal passage. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Sat. VFR conditions return Sun.

MARINE
Monitoring the potential for northerly channeling down the bay in the predawn as low pressure moves off the coast. May best be handled with an MWS if it materializes given anticipated short duration.

Otherwise, high pressure will build across the area today and Thu, resulting in light winds. NE to E winds Wed will become SE by Thu.

SCA criteria winds are possible on Fri due to southerly channeling ahead of a cold front. Showers and thunderstorms impact the waters Fri and Sat with winds shifting to northwesterly in the wake of the front. Small Craft Advisories are likely on Sat.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.