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FXUS63 KICT 230813 AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 313 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

* An enhanced risk for severe storms is in place across southeast Kansas.

* Heavy rain could lead to localized flooding across southeast Kansas.

* Quiet conditions return on Monday with above normal temperatures through the period.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

An upper level shortwave trough currently located across the Northern Rockies will eject out into the Northern Plains today. This will bring unsettled weather into southeast Kansas this afternoon and evening. Severe storms are expected with all hazards initially possible. Storms will initially be discrete before going linear.
During the discrete phase, MLCAPE values between 2500 and 3000 j/kg and deep layer shear of 40 to 50kt would support storms capable of baseball sized hail, 70 mph winds, and tornadoes. Once storms become linear damaging winds of 70 mph would be the main threat with quarter sized hail also possible. Storms will be capable of torrential rainfall that could lead to localized flooding across southeast Kansas.

A weak shortwave will move across southern Kansas on Sunday evening that may allow for some isolated storms across portions of south- central and southeast Kansas. Storms may struggle to initiate with subsidence across the region.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Weak ridging will be in place across the Plains on Tuesday and will persist through the period. This will bring near to slightly above normal temperatures to the region with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Dry conditions will also be favored through the period.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

MVFR to IFR cigs are expanding across portions of north-central Kansas and will likely be persistent through the morning hours.
Winds will remain around 10 to 15 knots out of the south or southeast this morning.

Later this afternoon, a cold front will sag into the region from the west, and winds after frontal passage will shift from southwesterly to northwesterly. East of the front, widespread showers and storms will impact portions of southeast Kansas. Some of these storms may be severe with large hail and winds over 50 knots. Storms will slowly move off to the east during the nighttime/overnight hours.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Wichita-KICT 88 62 84 58 / 20 20 10 0 Hutchinson 85 58 83 55 / 10 10 0 0 Newton 86 59 83 57 / 20 20 0 0 ElDorado 89 62 83 58 / 40 40 10 0 Winfield-KWLD 92 65 84 58 / 40 50 10 0 Russell 82 54 83 53 / 10 0 0 0 Great Bend 82 56 81 53 / 10 0 0 0 Salina 85 56 84 56 / 10 0 0 0 McPherson 85 57 83 55 / 10 10 0 0 Coffeyville 89 67 82 59 / 50 80 20 10 Chanute 88 66 82 58 / 60 80 20 0 Iola 88 65 82 58 / 60 80 20 0 Parsons-KPPF 89 66 82 59 / 60 80 20 10

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Wichita, KS,