DISCUSSION
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

PRECIPITATION...

Similar to the past few days, cannot completely rule out a stray shower/storm over eastern Kansas through about 8 PM this evening, but activity will be quite isolated/sparse. Decent downdraft CAPE will support gusty winds with any core than can develop.

A weak upper trough stalling over Mid-America will support a smattering of isolated to widely scattered showers/storms over eastern Kansas Saturday, mainly during the afternoon through early evening. Modest instability combined with paltry mid-level lapse rates and deep layer shear will preclude severe weather, although locally gusty winds and brief heavy rain are possible.

For Saturday night, could see a few showers/storms get into central and north-central Kansas as activity rolls off the High Plains late in the evening. Locally strong wind gusts are the main threat between about 10 PM and 2 AM.

A few rounds of showers/storms may impact mainly northern and northeast Kansas each night from Sunday night through Tuesday night, as shortwave energy rides through the top of the upper ridge, with some of this activity possibly grazing portions of central, east- central, and southeast Kansas. Increasing deep layer shear may support a few locally strong to marginally severe storms.

The upper ridge retrogrades some by mid to late week, allowing shortwave energy and an associated frontal zone to ooze south into the region. This could support off-and-on thunderstorm chances across the region anytime Wednesday night through about Saturday.
The biggest uncertainty at this point surrounds how far south this frontal zone will get. While widespread meaningful rainfall is unlikely, pockets of relief are possible. Continued seasonable deep layer shear may support a few locally strong to marginally severe storms.

TEMPERATURES...

As the stalled upper trough exits to the east, deterministic and ensemble consensus supports mid-upper ridging building in from the west, which will support hot summer heat Sunday through at least Wednesday or Thursday. Daytime highs in the upper 90s and 100s and overnight lows in the 70s to near 80 degrees are likely. Afternoon through early evening heat indices will likely exceed 104-110 degrees for many. Consequently, heat headlines are probable Monday through Wednesday or Thursday. Model consensus retrogrades the upper ridge by mid-late next week, which should result in temperatures not as hot by late next week and next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 533 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Isolated showers and storms will develop over parts of southeast Kansas this evening but should diminish around sunset. South winds will increase during the late morning and afternoon hours on Saturday across central Kansas. VFR conditions are expected however a few showers/storms could develop over southeast Kansas again late Saturday afternoon.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.