Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bunker Hill, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

A deep upper trough approaching from the southwest will support continued periodic hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area through Thursday. Much of far southeast Kansas has already received 1-3 inches of rainfall the past few days, with much lighter amounts further northwest. While chances for additional very heavy rainfall and intense rainfall rates are highest south and southeast of the forecast area, any additional rainfall on already saturated ground could support localized minor flooding. Therefore, will continue the flood watch through 7 AM Thursday over far southeast Kansas.

Guidance supports a thunderstorm complex progressing east-southeast across the Central and Southern High Plains Thursday night into early Friday, as a mid/upper trough moves southeast over the Midwest. Thinking the majority of this activity will remain south of the forecast area, although could clip southern Kansas.

Seasonable temperatures mostly in the 70s are expected the next several days.

Deterministic and ensemble consensus continues to show a chance for shower/storm chances slowly increasing from the west early to mid next week, as a deep and slow-moving upper trough approaches from the west. Given how slow this system is expected to move, there is potential this could be a prolonged rain event, with the latest guidance even lingering scattered to numerous showers/storms well into late next week. Severe weather chances would be confined to locations mainly west of the forecast area over the High Plains.
There remains some uncertainty regarding the speed, placement, and magnitude of this approaching upper trough. Stay tuned for later updates.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

A period of MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings will impact central, south-central, and southeast Kansas this morning. Most guidance has this lifting by 15-18z.

Thinking precipitation chances today will be highest over central Kansas (hit-or-miss showers/storms), and also over far southern and southeast Kansas (stratiform rain shield from thunderstorms over Oklahoma). Cannot rule out a few thunderstorms embedded in both cases, but for now only included TEMPO groups with SHRA. Elsewhere (ICT-HUT), cannot rule out a few stray showers/storms, but left mention out of 12z TAFs due to low coverage and predictability. In all cases, severe storms are not expected.

Later tonight, a weak cool front will approach from the northwest, switching winds to northwesterly. Also, a few showers/thunderstorms are possible in vicinity of this frontal passage, so included this mention in PROB30 groups.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ095-096-098>100.