Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bunker Hill, KS
May 14, 2024 3:23 PM CDT (20:23 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:23 AM Sunset 8:43 PM Moonrise 11:13 AM Moonset 1:18 AM |
FXUS63 KICT 142009 AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 309 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Storm chances increasing tonight with the better widespread storm chances late Wed afternoon and especially Wed night.
- Strong to severe storms possible with any storm that develop tonight through Wed night.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low about to move into western IL with a couple of impulses showing up out west.
One is lifting out of the Central Rockies and moving into western SD with another piece of energy over the Northern Intermountain. At the surface, a narrow area of weak high pressure extends from eastern Nebraska through central KS and into TX. Meanwhile, lee troughing extends from western Nebraska into Eastern CO.
Storms are expected to develop this afternoon over northwest KS as a weak cold front starts to move into the area in response to an upper impulse sliding across SD and northern Nebraska. Some of this activity will try and affect our central KS counties after 00z Wed.
A few additional storms will be possible late tonight into Wed morning as 850-700mb moisture transport ramps-up and a fairly impressive 700mb baroclinic zone lifts northeast across the forecast area. While instability isn't extremely high, there looks to be around 500-1000J/KG above 850mb which should be enough to get at least dime to nickel size hail with some of the stronger storms early Wed morning.
By Wed afternoon, weak cold front will extend from eastern Nebraska into central KS and finally into the TX Panhandle. Storms are expected to try and develop along this boundary during the late afternoon. However, convergence will not be that impressive so confidence is low on how much activity there will be. The most likely area of late afternoon/early evening development will be west and southwest of the forecast area, which will be closer to the surface low and enhanced upslope and convergence north of it over western OK/SW KS. Looks to be decent model agreement in an MCS tracking across southern KS/northern OK Wed night as low level jet ramps-up once again. Any storm that develops late Wed afternoon or Wed evening will have a chance to be severe with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.
By Thu morning, weak shortwave trough will be moving into the Western Great Lakes region with a southern stream impulse over southern NM/southwest TX. We should see some lingering morning convection on Thu, especially across southern and eastern KS as mid level baroclinic zone remains across much of the area. Storm chances on Thu will be highly dependent on remnant outflow boundary location from Wed night storms and how much recovery can occur.
Best chance for widespread convection will be over the southern Plains which will be closer to the southern stream impulse that is expected to reach the High Plains late Thu afternoon.
Models start to diverge on their position of the southern stream shortwave by 12z Fri. The GFS is the furthest northeast with this feature with a closed low over northeast OK. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and Canadian have it near the Red River. The NAM is the furthest southwest and has the low over west TX. Right now going with the thinking that the NAM is the outlier which would put the better rain chances over southeast KS on Fri as the upper impulse lifts off to the northeast. Pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive as another shortwave tracks across the Northern Plains late Fri night through Sat, which will allow another weak cold front to move through. However, not going with much precip as the front moves through mostly dry, due to lack of moisture.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
VFR conditions will prevail across the region for today and much of tonight. Showers and storms look to develop over parts of central and south central Kansas towards daybreak on Wednesday.
A few of the storms could produce small hail during the morning hours. Meanwhile low clouds in the MVFR category could affect southeast Kansas during the early morning hours.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 309 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Storm chances increasing tonight with the better widespread storm chances late Wed afternoon and especially Wed night.
- Strong to severe storms possible with any storm that develop tonight through Wed night.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low about to move into western IL with a couple of impulses showing up out west.
One is lifting out of the Central Rockies and moving into western SD with another piece of energy over the Northern Intermountain. At the surface, a narrow area of weak high pressure extends from eastern Nebraska through central KS and into TX. Meanwhile, lee troughing extends from western Nebraska into Eastern CO.
Storms are expected to develop this afternoon over northwest KS as a weak cold front starts to move into the area in response to an upper impulse sliding across SD and northern Nebraska. Some of this activity will try and affect our central KS counties after 00z Wed.
A few additional storms will be possible late tonight into Wed morning as 850-700mb moisture transport ramps-up and a fairly impressive 700mb baroclinic zone lifts northeast across the forecast area. While instability isn't extremely high, there looks to be around 500-1000J/KG above 850mb which should be enough to get at least dime to nickel size hail with some of the stronger storms early Wed morning.
By Wed afternoon, weak cold front will extend from eastern Nebraska into central KS and finally into the TX Panhandle. Storms are expected to try and develop along this boundary during the late afternoon. However, convergence will not be that impressive so confidence is low on how much activity there will be. The most likely area of late afternoon/early evening development will be west and southwest of the forecast area, which will be closer to the surface low and enhanced upslope and convergence north of it over western OK/SW KS. Looks to be decent model agreement in an MCS tracking across southern KS/northern OK Wed night as low level jet ramps-up once again. Any storm that develops late Wed afternoon or Wed evening will have a chance to be severe with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.
By Thu morning, weak shortwave trough will be moving into the Western Great Lakes region with a southern stream impulse over southern NM/southwest TX. We should see some lingering morning convection on Thu, especially across southern and eastern KS as mid level baroclinic zone remains across much of the area. Storm chances on Thu will be highly dependent on remnant outflow boundary location from Wed night storms and how much recovery can occur.
Best chance for widespread convection will be over the southern Plains which will be closer to the southern stream impulse that is expected to reach the High Plains late Thu afternoon.
Models start to diverge on their position of the southern stream shortwave by 12z Fri. The GFS is the furthest northeast with this feature with a closed low over northeast OK. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and Canadian have it near the Red River. The NAM is the furthest southwest and has the low over west TX. Right now going with the thinking that the NAM is the outlier which would put the better rain chances over southeast KS on Fri as the upper impulse lifts off to the northeast. Pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive as another shortwave tracks across the Northern Plains late Fri night through Sat, which will allow another weak cold front to move through. However, not going with much precip as the front moves through mostly dry, due to lack of moisture.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
VFR conditions will prevail across the region for today and much of tonight. Showers and storms look to develop over parts of central and south central Kansas towards daybreak on Wednesday.
A few of the storms could produce small hail during the morning hours. Meanwhile low clouds in the MVFR category could affect southeast Kansas during the early morning hours.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KRSL RUSSELL MUNI,KS | 5 sm | 30 min | var 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 79°F | 46°F | 32% | 29.79 |
Wichita, KS,
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