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FXUS65 KPUB 071802 AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1102 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 1100 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2023

The incoming wave has intensified winds more than this morning's model runs had been suggesting, with gusts over 60 mph for portions of I-25 and the Wet Mountain Valley. Looking at obs across the area, dewpoints are also expected to drop quickly as we move into the afternoon as well. In response, have hoisted a High Wind Warning over the Sangres and the Wet Mountain Valley, along with a Red Flag Warning over I-25, all valid through 6pm. Once the sun sets, winds should wane quickly and RH should recover.

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 404 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2023

Key Messages:

- Over the mountains, strong downslope winds (gusts 50-65 mph) over many east slopes through the day.

- On the plains, warm and windy today with increased fire danger and patchy critical fire weather conditions expected.

One more very warm day expected across the area today ahead of approaching upper trough, though winds will increase at many locations by afternoon. Over the high terrain, moderate mountain wave develops from this morning into mid-afternoon, before set-up becomes more unfavorable tonight as upper jet begins to move into the region. As a result, many east slope locations will see periods of strong winds from mid-morning into the afternoon, with strongest winds in the lee of the srn Sangres/east slopes of the Sawatch Range/Rampart Range, as westerly component is most favorable for these locations. As of now, don't have any high wind warnings in place, as mountain top flow looks a little too weak (40-50 kts) this far south for extreme gusts and most mesoscale models keep strong winds pinned close to the high terrain. Still, could see some gusts 60-70 mph around midday, especially in the lee of the Sangres, where HRRR highlights strongest gust potential.

On the plains, winds look rather sporadic, and gap flow areas through the Arkansas Valley and downstream of La Veta Pass look windiest, along with high terrain around Monument/Palmer Lake, and gusts 30-40 mph look possible these locations. Considered a fire weather highlight for portions of the plains as RH will be very low, however, stronger gusts are rather inconsistent and do not last more than an hour or two in most places, so held off. Baca County and perhaps the northern half of Pueblo/srn half of El Paso Counties will be the spots to watch for the most critical conditions. Given the warm start and deep mixing, suspect max temps will be very warm again today, and with NBM performing rather poorly the past few days (too cool), have gone above almost all guidance on the plains.
Forecast has COS tying their record for the day (68f), while Pueblo gets close, (fcst 74f, record 76f).

Tonight, lee slope winds diminish quickly as mountain wave weakens, while on the plains, winds initially weaken in the evening, then gradually restrengthen toward morning as surface pressure falls develop ahead of approaching wave. Not expecting much snowfall overnight, though a few snow showers/flurries will likely begin over the higher peaks along the Continental Divide toward sunrise.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 404 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2023

Key Messages:

- Cooler and unsettled Friday into Saturday with lower confidence on snow amounts.

- Seasonably cool northwest flow Sunday into the middle of next week.

Latest model data is bringing in the next Pacific weather system in two pieces across the region, and are also a tad further north and not as deep with secondary energy digging across the Central Rockies Friday night and Saturday. With that said, still expecting snow across the area Friday and Saturday, especially over and near the higher terrain. However, confidence has dropped on snow totals, especially over southeast mountains, as h7 orographic flow is progged to be more northerly than the previous northeasterly.

At any rate, model data has one piece of the trough translating across the Northern Rockies late tonight, which sends a backdoor cold front across the Eastern Plains Friday morning, with east to southeast low level upslope developing across the southeast Plains into the afternoon. Moisture is lacking across the area until secondary energy across the Intermountain West digs across the Rockies Friday afternoon and evening. This system sends a stronger cold front across the eastern Plains Friday night, with breezy northerly winds continuing across the plains through the day Saturday, with deep northerly flow developing behind the passing trough. Still expecting snow to develop across the ContDvd late Thursday night and Friday morning, with best accumulations across the Central mtns with westerly orographic flow. Snow still spreads east across the high mtn valleys through the Eastern Mtns and adjacent Plains Friday afternoon and evening. Current grids indicate 3 to 6 inches of snow across the Central Mts through the Pikes Peak and Palmer Dvd region, where winter weather advisories may be needed. Snowfall across the Southern Mts and Southern I-25 Corridor has dropped to 2 to 4 inches, though confidence in orographic flow is low at this time, and will need to continue to monitor the location of the passing trough. Snow still looks to diminish/end from northwest to southeast late Friday night and Saturday morning.
Temperatures at and below seasonal levels Friday stay below seasonal levels on Saturday with cold northerly flow aloft.

Sunday-Wednesday...Moderate to strong west to northwest flow with occasional embedded disturbances remains progged across the region Sunday through Tuesday, keeping chances of snow showers across the higher terrain, especially the Central Mtns, with breezy conditions and temperatures warming back to around seasonal levels through the period. Lower confidence in the forecast for later next week, as models do indicate a cutoff low developing across the Great Basin, though struggle on details of where it goes later next week.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1011 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. Gusty west winds will set in across the area by 21Z, gusting 25-30 knots through 00Z or so. Winds will quickly weaken after sundown with mid-level clouds moving in. Snow showers will set in tomorrow close to the end of the period at KCOS.



PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Wind Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ072>075-078.

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ226>230.

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