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FXUS65 KPUB 192022 AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 222 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A few strong to severe storms possible this afternoon over the far eastern plains.

- Warm, dry, and windy for Monday, with isolated thunderstorms favoring the higher terrain and Palmer Divide. Critical fire weather conditions in place for the Sangres and the Wet Mt Valley.

- Other than mountain showers overnight, dry conditions are expected for the region Monday night.

- Isolated to scattered showers expected for mostly the mountains through much of the upcoming week, with mostly dry conditions elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024

Currently...Isolated thunderstorm activity along the Palmer Divide, and stronger activity over the southeast corner of the state, is expected to persist until around 4 or 5 PM this evening, before quickly pushing east into KS. Interestingly, 45-50 degree dewpoints had seeped much further westward today than what models had predicted, and that llvl moisture pool is whats helping to fuel strong to severe storms near the KS border. Temps as of 2 PM have warmed into the 70s for the high valleys, and mid 70s to mid 80s for the plains.

Tonight...Upper low trough digs south into the Intermountain West and increases southwest flow aloft across the region. These stronger winds will lower at times through the night, helping to keep the lower atmos mixed and a bit more mild. Across the plains, isolated convection currently happening is expected to push clear of the state by 6 or maybe 7 PM. However, llvl moisture from convective outflow will likely seep back in overnight, with models indicating 40-50F dewpoints reaching as far back as the I-25 Corridor. Look for overnight low temps in the mid 30s to mid 40s for the high valleys, and around 50F for the plains.

Tomorrow...Upper trough deepens even more and slides into western MT and WY, increasing SW flow even moreso across the Four Corners region. This strong warming and drying flow will produce critical fire weather conditions for portions of the forecast area during the afternoon. Fortunately, much of the fuels in the area have been deemed non-critical, save for the lower elevations of the Sangres, the Wets and the Wet Mt Valley. Therefore, the watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for that area. As for convective chances, llvl moisture pooling across the plains and decent shear would normally mean an active day, but all models are indicating a decent cap in place that should inhibit convection for much of the area. The exception will be the mts and Palmer Divide, where terrain will aid in getting some isolated to low-end scattered showers and thunderstorms going by the afternoon. Plan on another very warm day even as mid and high level cloud cover will be on the increase from the west. Temps will climb into the 70s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to upper 80s for the plains. Moore

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024

Monday Night: Monday night will bring relatively quiet weather to south central and southeastern Colorado. A shortwave embedded within a broader trough will eject across the area. The uptick in forcing with this feature will help to blossom isolated to scattered showers across the mountains throughout the overnight hours, particularly across the central mountains, where forcing will be strongest. As for the rest of the region, dry conditions are anticipated. With that said, a dryline will be sitting across the eastern plains throughout the evening hours. The kinematic environment will be highly supportive of organized thunderstorms, however, a strong and strengthening cap is anticipated to hinder any convective development. Confidence on any thunderstorm development is very low (<19%), but if, and that's a big if, any thunderstorms can blossom along this dryline and become mature, significant severe weather would be likely. As the aforementioned shortwave continues to push to northeast overnight, dry air will prevail and shove this dryline eastward, and any precipitation concerns will then remain along the mountains. As for temperatures, a mild night is expected for the region. Downsloping westerly winds will help to keep much of south central and southeastern Colorado mild and relatively warm for the overnight hours.

Tuesday - Saturday: For much of the long term period, some active weather is anticipated for south central and southeastern Colorado. Broad troughing/southwesterly flow with embedded shortwaves will be in place over the region, and ensemble model guidance are in decent agreement about this pattern evolution.
While this pattern will bring at least modest upticks in forcing, especially when the shortwaves influence the region, the strongest forcing will remain to the north and northwest of the area. With that all said though, given at least some forcing in place, isolated to scattered showers are anticipated, though mostly along the mountains where any forcing will be greatest.
Elsewhere across the region, drier conditions are expected given the strongest forcing remaining to the north. Along with that though, given the drier conditions, and increasing winds with this pattern, critical fire weather conditions will be a concern throughout the week, particularly across the San Luis Valley and the eastern plains. Looking at temperatures, a warm stretch of days is anticipated. Much of the area will warm to and slightly above seasonal values for late May.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions anticipated across mouch of the forecast area over the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Southwest winds will be on the increase this afternoon at terminal sites with gusts 22-27 kts expected from 20z until around 02z. A few thunderstorms may develop across the far eastern plains this afternoon near the KS border, between 20-23z, but are expected to quickly push east-northeast into KS.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ225.

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