Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jonesburg, MO
May 15, 2024 6:24 PM CDT (23:24 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:48 AM Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 11:45 AM Moonset 1:17 AM |
FXUS63 KLSX 152242 AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 542 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Unsettled weather returns to the region late tonight through Friday. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening.
- Portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois could see locally heavy rainfall that could produce minor flooding on Friday.
- Warmer weather returns to the region late in the weekend and through next week. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees above normal by Monday and Tuesday.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Thursday Night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
A weak surface ridge will continue to slide off to the southeast tonight as the next system over the Northern/Central Plains moves into western MO by 06z Thursday. A warm front will develop along the MO/AR border this evening and lift northward as an upper level shortwave associated with the system lifts northeastward out of the Southern Plains. Still some uncertainty on the exact location of the warm front through the period and where the main axis of showers and storms will develop. The latest deterministic model runs range from across northern MO (NAM) to across southern MO (GFS), while the majority of the HRRR ensembles have the main axis along and south of I-70 tonight through Thursday. So kept the highest POPs along and south of I-70. Since the activity will take awhile to reach the region, still have high confidence that it will be weakening as it moves into the area due to weakening instability and veering low level jet. There is still some uncertainty on how much the atmosphere will recover by Thursday afternoon due to the morning rain and cloud cover. However, as a remnant MCV, associated with the morning activity, slides along the MO/AR border Thursday afternoon combined with MU CAPEs between 1000-2000 J/kg and 0 to 6km bulk shear of 30 to 40 kts, could see isolated severe storms develop over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois, as well as a small portion of east-central Missouri. The main threats will be damaging winds and large hail between 2 pm and 8 pm Thursday.
The activity will taper off by late evening Thursday with the boundary stalling out along the MO/AR border. This boundary will be the focus for additional activity developing after 06z Friday as the main shortwave/trough over the TX panhandle slowly slides east northeast towards the region.
Byrd
LONG TERM
(Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
The shortwave with associated surface low will continue to slide east northeast on Friday towards the forecast area. With the surface boundary lingering across southern Missouri, the combination of a southerly low level jet (25 to 35 kts), PWATS in excess of 1.5 inches and deep layer ascent at the left exit region of the upper jet will generate widespread showers and storms.
Thus portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois could see locally heavy rainfall that could produce minor flooding on Friday.
The latest ensembles as well as deterministic models still have differences in timing, strength and location of the system as moves through the region this weekend. For now still expect low chances (20-40%) of showers and a few storms Friday night through Saturday, especially across portions of east-central/southeast Missouri and southwest/south-central Illinois. Otherwise, a majority of the region will be dry this weekend.
Beyond the weekend, warmer weather is expected with above normal temperatures by Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise, there is the potential for another active period as multiple shortwaves move across the region.
Byrd
AVIATION
(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 536 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
While there will be plenty of cloud cover around area terminals at the start of the period, VFR ceilings are expected for the most part through the overnight hours. Some scattered cumulus may dip briefly to MVFR levels at times before dissipating later this evening. Scattered showers are expected to impact most terminals between early morning and mid afternoon, with a few thunderstorms possible as well. I-70 corridor terminals (COU/JEF/STL/SUS/CPS)
will see greater shower coverage than UIN, and are more likely to observe thunderstorms. Additional, potentially stronger thunderstorms may redevelop after this initial round near the end of the TAF period, but most of this activity is likely to remain south of area terminals. However, confidence in the location of these storms remains somewhat low, and we can't rule out thunderstorms developing as far north as I-70.
BRC
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 542 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Unsettled weather returns to the region late tonight through Friday. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening.
- Portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois could see locally heavy rainfall that could produce minor flooding on Friday.
- Warmer weather returns to the region late in the weekend and through next week. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees above normal by Monday and Tuesday.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Thursday Night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
A weak surface ridge will continue to slide off to the southeast tonight as the next system over the Northern/Central Plains moves into western MO by 06z Thursday. A warm front will develop along the MO/AR border this evening and lift northward as an upper level shortwave associated with the system lifts northeastward out of the Southern Plains. Still some uncertainty on the exact location of the warm front through the period and where the main axis of showers and storms will develop. The latest deterministic model runs range from across northern MO (NAM) to across southern MO (GFS), while the majority of the HRRR ensembles have the main axis along and south of I-70 tonight through Thursday. So kept the highest POPs along and south of I-70. Since the activity will take awhile to reach the region, still have high confidence that it will be weakening as it moves into the area due to weakening instability and veering low level jet. There is still some uncertainty on how much the atmosphere will recover by Thursday afternoon due to the morning rain and cloud cover. However, as a remnant MCV, associated with the morning activity, slides along the MO/AR border Thursday afternoon combined with MU CAPEs between 1000-2000 J/kg and 0 to 6km bulk shear of 30 to 40 kts, could see isolated severe storms develop over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois, as well as a small portion of east-central Missouri. The main threats will be damaging winds and large hail between 2 pm and 8 pm Thursday.
The activity will taper off by late evening Thursday with the boundary stalling out along the MO/AR border. This boundary will be the focus for additional activity developing after 06z Friday as the main shortwave/trough over the TX panhandle slowly slides east northeast towards the region.
Byrd
LONG TERM
(Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
The shortwave with associated surface low will continue to slide east northeast on Friday towards the forecast area. With the surface boundary lingering across southern Missouri, the combination of a southerly low level jet (25 to 35 kts), PWATS in excess of 1.5 inches and deep layer ascent at the left exit region of the upper jet will generate widespread showers and storms.
Thus portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois could see locally heavy rainfall that could produce minor flooding on Friday.
The latest ensembles as well as deterministic models still have differences in timing, strength and location of the system as moves through the region this weekend. For now still expect low chances (20-40%) of showers and a few storms Friday night through Saturday, especially across portions of east-central/southeast Missouri and southwest/south-central Illinois. Otherwise, a majority of the region will be dry this weekend.
Beyond the weekend, warmer weather is expected with above normal temperatures by Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise, there is the potential for another active period as multiple shortwaves move across the region.
Byrd
AVIATION
(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 536 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
While there will be plenty of cloud cover around area terminals at the start of the period, VFR ceilings are expected for the most part through the overnight hours. Some scattered cumulus may dip briefly to MVFR levels at times before dissipating later this evening. Scattered showers are expected to impact most terminals between early morning and mid afternoon, with a few thunderstorms possible as well. I-70 corridor terminals (COU/JEF/STL/SUS/CPS)
will see greater shower coverage than UIN, and are more likely to observe thunderstorms. Additional, potentially stronger thunderstorms may redevelop after this initial round near the end of the TAF period, but most of this activity is likely to remain south of area terminals. However, confidence in the location of these storms remains somewhat low, and we can't rule out thunderstorms developing as far north as I-70.
BRC
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
St. Louis, MO,
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