Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jonesburg, MO
March 29, 2024 4:41 AM CDT (09:41 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:50 AM Sunset 7:25 PM Moonrise 11:11 PM Moonset 7:50 AM |
Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 290829 AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 329 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A cold front drops south into the region tonight. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible along it. It will then stall across the region on Saturday before lifting back north on Sunday.
- Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday night and again on Sunday. Storms on Sunday evening could produce large hail.
- Additional thunderstorms are possible on Monday as a broader storm system moves through the region. Some of these thunderstorms could become severe with all severe weather hazards possible.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Mid level ridging moves overhead today as a shortwave trough moves out into the Northern Plains. As this wave moves east, low pressure emerges out of the lee of the Rockies and tracks northeast toward Iowa this evening. We'll see an increasing pressure gradient today leading to stronger southerly winds and gusts to 30 mph or so.
It'll be warm with temperatures rising into the 70s area wide.
Dewpoints will be on the increase as well as the wave passing to the north pulls in a bit better moisture. By this evening we'll actually see some weak to moderate instability developing across northern Missouri as low pressure moves by to the north and a cold front drops in behind it. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be further north across Iowa and central to northern Illinois along the warm front this evening, but some convective development further south into northeast Missouri and western Illinois is possible into the overnight hours as the front drops south. Due to a lack of stronger instability, severe weather is unlikely.
The cold front will stall across the center of the forecast area on Saturday, perhaps a bit further south than prior forecasts.
Temperatures will be cooler north of the front, mainly in the 60s, while south of the front we'll warm at least into the 70s again. The uncertainty on the frontal position has led to greater uncertainty in the temperature forecast on Saturday than normal. NBM interquartile range is 5 to 8 degrees across the center of the forecast area due to that uncertainty on how far south the front gets.
Kimble
LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
The front begins to lift back north Saturday night into Sunday as low level flow turns southerly to the south of it ahead of the next subtle shortwave trough rounding the top of the ridge. The moisture push back north will lead to another chance for showers and thunderstorms along and north of the boundary Saturday night into Sunday. Instability is somewhat weak initially, but grows stronger Sunday evening when there will be a better chance for large hail.
The new SPC Day3 outlook highlights the northern part of our forecast area in a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms due to this threat for elevated thunderstorms producing large hail.
Meanwhile to the west, a large upper trough will be settling into the Southwest US while another, stronger shortwave trough moves out into the Plains on Monday. This sends another wave of low pressure eastward along the front with another surge of Gulf of Mexico moisture ahead of it. There is some uncertainty on where the frontal boundary will be at this point as Sunday's wave initially moves the front north but then shoves it back south a behind it. In the warm sector on Monday we'll see a much more unstable air mass with temperatures warming potentially into the 80s and dewpoints rising into the 60s. With surface winds out of the south and mid level winds rather strong out of the southwest we'll also see plenty of vertical shear as well. This will set up an environment where supercell thunderstorms will be possible with all severe weather hazards. This threat remains conditional, though, as the effective warm front will likely be stretched east to west somewhere in our forecast area. Along and north of this boundary the low level air mass will be considerably cooler and any instability elevated in nature. Thunderstorms in this environment would be primarily a hail threat.
With the increasing low level moisture, there's also some uncertainty on cloud cover even in the warm sector which could significantly dampen overall instability and severe weather potential. The operational GFS for example has morning showers and thunderstorms which prevent the development of more robust instability in the afternoon. This uncertainty is shown in part by a large range in potential high temperatures on Monday. The NBM interquartile range is from 8 to 16 degrees across the area on Monday due primarily to that uncertainty on cloud cover. On the high end we could see surface based CAPE values well over 1000, but with more cloud cover this could be limited to just a couple hundred.
Given the overall synoptic setup, the more likely area for surface based convective initiation Monday afternoon would be along the dryline in central Oklahoma north into central Kansas where it intersects with the surface low and advancing cold front. This is where instability and low level convergence is maximized. Storms which initiate in this region will then track east northeast potentially into our area Monday evening. Given the environment with at least the potential for strong instability and strong shear, supercell thunderstorms with all severe weather hazards will be possible. Locally heavy rain will also be possible considering the humid air mass, especially if a slow moving stratiform rain region develops from more widespread convection.
As the wave moves east Monday night into Tuesday, the front will move south and push the cooler air mass through the entirety of the forecast area. Some rain may linger behind the departing low on Tuesday and temperatures stay mostly in the 50s. There's some uncertainty on how long the cooler conditions last and how quickly ridging builds back in. This is noted in the NBM interquartile range becoming extreme (15 to 20 degrees) for the last half of the week. A trend back toward warmer weather is expected, but it's the speed of that warm up that's uncertain.
Kimble
AVIATION
(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
South southwest winds increase during the morning with gusts to 25KT or so through the day. Gusts may continue into the night tonight. A cold front dropping into the area from the north may bring a shower or thunderstorm as it moves through. This chance is greatest at Quincy but not high enough to mention in the TAF at this stage.
Kimble
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 329 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A cold front drops south into the region tonight. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible along it. It will then stall across the region on Saturday before lifting back north on Sunday.
- Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday night and again on Sunday. Storms on Sunday evening could produce large hail.
- Additional thunderstorms are possible on Monday as a broader storm system moves through the region. Some of these thunderstorms could become severe with all severe weather hazards possible.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Mid level ridging moves overhead today as a shortwave trough moves out into the Northern Plains. As this wave moves east, low pressure emerges out of the lee of the Rockies and tracks northeast toward Iowa this evening. We'll see an increasing pressure gradient today leading to stronger southerly winds and gusts to 30 mph or so.
It'll be warm with temperatures rising into the 70s area wide.
Dewpoints will be on the increase as well as the wave passing to the north pulls in a bit better moisture. By this evening we'll actually see some weak to moderate instability developing across northern Missouri as low pressure moves by to the north and a cold front drops in behind it. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be further north across Iowa and central to northern Illinois along the warm front this evening, but some convective development further south into northeast Missouri and western Illinois is possible into the overnight hours as the front drops south. Due to a lack of stronger instability, severe weather is unlikely.
The cold front will stall across the center of the forecast area on Saturday, perhaps a bit further south than prior forecasts.
Temperatures will be cooler north of the front, mainly in the 60s, while south of the front we'll warm at least into the 70s again. The uncertainty on the frontal position has led to greater uncertainty in the temperature forecast on Saturday than normal. NBM interquartile range is 5 to 8 degrees across the center of the forecast area due to that uncertainty on how far south the front gets.
Kimble
LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
The front begins to lift back north Saturday night into Sunday as low level flow turns southerly to the south of it ahead of the next subtle shortwave trough rounding the top of the ridge. The moisture push back north will lead to another chance for showers and thunderstorms along and north of the boundary Saturday night into Sunday. Instability is somewhat weak initially, but grows stronger Sunday evening when there will be a better chance for large hail.
The new SPC Day3 outlook highlights the northern part of our forecast area in a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms due to this threat for elevated thunderstorms producing large hail.
Meanwhile to the west, a large upper trough will be settling into the Southwest US while another, stronger shortwave trough moves out into the Plains on Monday. This sends another wave of low pressure eastward along the front with another surge of Gulf of Mexico moisture ahead of it. There is some uncertainty on where the frontal boundary will be at this point as Sunday's wave initially moves the front north but then shoves it back south a behind it. In the warm sector on Monday we'll see a much more unstable air mass with temperatures warming potentially into the 80s and dewpoints rising into the 60s. With surface winds out of the south and mid level winds rather strong out of the southwest we'll also see plenty of vertical shear as well. This will set up an environment where supercell thunderstorms will be possible with all severe weather hazards. This threat remains conditional, though, as the effective warm front will likely be stretched east to west somewhere in our forecast area. Along and north of this boundary the low level air mass will be considerably cooler and any instability elevated in nature. Thunderstorms in this environment would be primarily a hail threat.
With the increasing low level moisture, there's also some uncertainty on cloud cover even in the warm sector which could significantly dampen overall instability and severe weather potential. The operational GFS for example has morning showers and thunderstorms which prevent the development of more robust instability in the afternoon. This uncertainty is shown in part by a large range in potential high temperatures on Monday. The NBM interquartile range is from 8 to 16 degrees across the area on Monday due primarily to that uncertainty on cloud cover. On the high end we could see surface based CAPE values well over 1000, but with more cloud cover this could be limited to just a couple hundred.
Given the overall synoptic setup, the more likely area for surface based convective initiation Monday afternoon would be along the dryline in central Oklahoma north into central Kansas where it intersects with the surface low and advancing cold front. This is where instability and low level convergence is maximized. Storms which initiate in this region will then track east northeast potentially into our area Monday evening. Given the environment with at least the potential for strong instability and strong shear, supercell thunderstorms with all severe weather hazards will be possible. Locally heavy rain will also be possible considering the humid air mass, especially if a slow moving stratiform rain region develops from more widespread convection.
As the wave moves east Monday night into Tuesday, the front will move south and push the cooler air mass through the entirety of the forecast area. Some rain may linger behind the departing low on Tuesday and temperatures stay mostly in the 50s. There's some uncertainty on how long the cooler conditions last and how quickly ridging builds back in. This is noted in the NBM interquartile range becoming extreme (15 to 20 degrees) for the last half of the week. A trend back toward warmer weather is expected, but it's the speed of that warm up that's uncertain.
Kimble
AVIATION
(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
South southwest winds increase during the morning with gusts to 25KT or so through the day. Gusts may continue into the night tonight. A cold front dropping into the area from the north may bring a shower or thunderstorm as it moves through. This chance is greatest at Quincy but not high enough to mention in the TAF at this stage.
Kimble
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
Airport Reports
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