Tuesday, July7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grasonville, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 8:33PM Tuesday July 7, 2020 9:35 PM EDT (01:35 UTC) Moonrise 9:44PMMoonset 7:02AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 802 Pm Edt Tue Jul 7 2020
Tonight..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Fri night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 802 Pm Edt Tue Jul 7 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will develop to the south tonight through Thursday and it will pass by to the east Friday. A cold front will pass through the waters Saturday. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grasonville, MD
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location: 38.88, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 080039 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 839 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure centered off the coast of Maine will shift eastward through Wednesday. Low pressure is forecast to organize near the coastal Carolinas by late Wednesday then move northeastward and track very near our area Friday into Saturday. A cold front then moves through over the weekend, which may stall along the coast through early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. Evening Update .

Not a whole lot to speak of this evening. It's been a fairly warm and humid afternoon and evening, but not nearly as hot as yesterday. There have been a few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly over Delmarva earlier this afternoon and more recently along portions of the urban corridor. However, they have been quite tame for the most part. Forcing for ascent is weak today, but as previous forecasts have mentioned, suspect the main reason for a lack of more vigorous convection today is that the atmosphere still has not recovered from yesterday. Isolated showers may linger for another couple of hours, but the trend will be for the already sparse activity to fade with the further loss of daytime heating. Otherwise, skies should become partly to mostly clear for much of the night (especially to the south) before a stratus deck fills in later on. Did add a mention of fog mainly in the Poconos with this update with most guidance supportive of that occurring. Some showers are possible across the far north as well later tonight. Otherwise, a warm and humid night is expected with lows generally not getting below 70.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. Wash, rinse, and repeat as we head into Wednesday with another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms as this weak shortwave cross the region. Forcing looks relatively weak again, being strongest across the Poconos into Northern New Jersey closer to the lifted warm frontal boundary. Severe potential looks low with SBCAPE values forecast to be around 2000 to 2500 J/kg at the very best across these areas. 0-3 km shear values don't look all that more impressive with values generally below 10 knots, being not supportive for updraft maintenance. Better chances look to lie to our north into upstate New York along a more defined prefrontal trough just ahead of a cold front lying across Ontario into the Great Lakes. Highs will be similar to today in the upper 80s to just shy of 90. It will remain on the humid side, with afternoon heat indices in the mid 90s, however.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Summary . Summer warmth and humidity, although some cooling takes place Friday (most humid though) as low pressure is forecast to track very near our region.

Synoptic Overview . A ridge slides across the eastern Great Lakes and the Northeast through late Thursday before shifting eastward. A trough below this will support low pressure moving northeastward from the coastal Carolinas in the Thursday through Saturday time frame. An incoming upper-level trough should then slowly settles into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions over the weekend into early next week. As the trough axis may remain to our west, a frontal zone may stall very near our coast over the weekend through early next week.

For Wednesday night and Thursday . A short wave trough is forecast to slide across New England and glance our region into Wednesday night. A weak surface front may accompany this feature. Some convection should be ongoing to start Wednesday night especially near and northwest of I-95, however this activity should dissipate through the evening with the loss of heating and as the aforementioned short wave trough exits to our northeast. Some upper- level ridging then builds in later Wednesday night and most of the day Thursday, then low pressure moving northeastward from the coastal Carolinas may start to spread some showers/thunder into the coastal areas later Thursday night. There may also be some convection during the day Thursday across the far northern areas in proximity of a lingering weak surface boundary. It will be very warm to hot with increased humidity.

For Friday and Saturday . The model guidance is in good agreement that a surface low tracks northward very near the East Coast from the coastal Carolinas. This system could have tropical characteristics (warm core) at first, however an upper-level trough from the west is forecast to gradually arrive into the Northeast. The timing of this trough will determine the north and northeast motion of the surface low. The surface low may not be all that strong, however forcing for ascent looks strong with a robust moisture surge along and east of the surface low track (precipitable water 2.0-2.5 inches). This system has the potential to produce an area of very heavy rain even with little or no lightning given the tropical air mass forecast to be in place (surface dew points in the low to mid 70's). There may be a sharp cut off to the west of the surface low track where much less precipitation occurs due to much weaker forcing. There may be a band of stronger convergence along or just inland from the coast which would enhance the rainfall, however these details this far out in time are challenging to pinpoint. An onshore wind will increase some ahead of the surface low which will result in increasing tides, however the system looks to track northward fairly quickly during Friday and then be moving northeast of our area to start Saturday. A cold front it its wake arrives which may trigger some convection into Saturday evening.

For Sunday through Tuesday . An upper-level trough gradually moves across the Northeast, however its axis may hang back to our west for awhile. This may keep a surface front stalled very near our coast through much if not all of this time frame. This may result in some mainly diurnally driven convection. If the trough moves through faster, then drying may settle in quicker with potentially less convective potential Monday and Tuesday. Overall, kept PoPs on the low side given uncertainty with the details.

AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through tonight . VFR expected through at least 06z. By 08z to 10z, an MVFR stratus deck is expected to fill in from north to south. Cigs at most terminals after 08z to 10z could range anywhere from about 1000 to 3000 ft. Winds mainly light and variable, if anything a light drift from the south or south-southeast. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday . Initially, MVFR conditions in most areas. VFR developing by 13z to 15z. Beyond 15z, VFR with showers and thunderstorms possible mainly north and west of PHL after 18z. Winds light and variable initially, becoming S or SSE at 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook . Wednesday night and Thursday . Some local fog possible early Thursday morning, otherwise mostly VFR. Some showers and thunderstorms possible Wednesday evening then again later Thursday. Winds light and variable becoming southeasterly 5-10 knots Thursday. Moderate confidence.

Friday and Saturday . Potentially widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings (and visibilities at times) developing Friday with showers and thunderstorms on the increase. The conditions should improve during Saturday with decreasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. East- northeast winds around 10 knots Friday, becoming north and northwest Friday night and Saturday. Low confidence.

Sunday . Mainly VFR, however a few showers and thunderstorms possible. Southwesterly winds increasing to 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Sub-advisory conditions expected through the overnight with south- southeasterly winds from 5 to 10 knots with gusts from 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 feet or less.

Outlook . Wednesday night and Thursday . Seas may build to 5-6 feet on the ocean Thursday night as onshore winds start to increase. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory may eventually be needed.

Friday through Sunday . Small Craft Advisory conditions anticipated Friday into Saturday mainly for seas 5-7 feet. The conditions should then be mainly below criteria Sunday.

Rip currents .

With light winds and seas continuing, the risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is expected to remain low on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the risk may increase to moderate levels especially later in the day as easterly winds begin to increase and seas slowly start to build.

Heading into Friday, we anticipate the risk for dangerous rip currents to increase substantially. As seas build over the region, and we go through a prolonged period of longer period onshore swell, the risk for dangerous, life threatening rip currents will increase to at least moderate and possibly high especially for the Jersey coastline. Those with beach interests should monitor conditions closely as the development of dangerous rip currents seems quite likely based on latest trends in the forecast.

EQUIPMENT. The Reading Regional Airport (KRDG) ASOS is experiencing technical problems. Data will be missing or incomplete until further notice.

The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air until further notice due to damage to the antenna during the June 3 derecho.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Gorse Near Term . O'Brien Short Term . Davis Long Term . Gorse Aviation . Gorse/O'Brien Marine . Davis/Gorse/O'Brien Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 10 mi35 min SE 15 G 16 82°F 80°F1016.8 hPa76°F
CPVM2 11 mi47 min 81°F 77°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 14 mi47 min SSE 5.1 G 9.9 83°F 83°F1015.4 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 23 mi47 min SSE 8 G 9.9 81°F 83°F1016.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 23 mi53 min SSE 1.9 G 4.1 79°F 83°F1016.2 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 24 mi41 min S 18 G 19 81°F 80°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 25 mi125 min SE 5.1 1015 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 28 mi47 min SSE 7 G 7 82°F 1015.8 hPa
FSNM2 28 mi65 min SSE 6 G 8 81°F 1015.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 32 mi47 min S 2.9 G 5.1 82°F 83°F1015.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 34 mi89 min SSE 17 G 19 1016.4 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 40 mi47 min SSE 11 G 12 81°F 82°F1016.1 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 41 mi47 min E 1.9 G 2.9 81°F 85°F1015.7 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi47 min S 16 G 19 81°F 84°F1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD8 mi40 minESE 57.00 miFog/Mist81°F77°F89%1016.3 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD11 mi45 minESE 410.00 miClear79°F77°F94%1017.6 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD14 mi1.7 hrsSSE 59.00 miFair81°F73°F77%1016 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KW29

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Claiborne, Eastern Bay, Maryland
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Claiborne
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:27 AM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:47 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:45 PM EDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.50.71.11.51.81.91.91.81.51.20.90.70.50.50.60.81.11.21.31.210.80.6

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:00 AM EDT     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:34 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:15 AM EDT     1.13 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:00 PM EDT     -1.12 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:40 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT     0.63 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:09 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.20.20.611.11.10.80.3-0.2-0.7-1-1.1-1-0.7-0.30.10.50.60.60.40.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.