Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Russell Springs, KS
May 19, 2024 5:38 PM CDT (22:38 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:27 AM Sunset 8:52 PM Moonrise 4:21 PM Moonset 3:22 AM |
FXUS63 KGLD 192125 AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 325 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Strong to severe storms remain forecasted for today/tonight with hail around two inches in diameter and wind gusts around 70 mph possible. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for far SE/E counties.
- Storms; some severe north of Interstate 70 are forecast Monday. Main hazards are large hail, damaging winds and torrential rainfall.
- Cooler with frost concerns mid week.
UPDATE
Issued at 139 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #260 is now in effect through 03z Monday for the following NW Kansas counties: Gove, Greeley, Graham and Wichita. These areas will be most prone based on currently developing/moving through the DDC CWA Same threats as before, mainly wind and hail. Isolated tornado/landspout possible and heavy rainfall as well.
Will be monitoring the current activity to possibly add in additional counties later today.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Across the region this afternoon, skies are a mixed sunny down to partly sunny. Not much remains from the morning veil of low cloud, as storms are starting to develop around the outskirts of the CWA
Temperatures as of 200 PM MDT are ranging in the 60s and 70s. The cooler temperatures are those locales still being affected by clouds. Winds are southerly with gusts into the 20-30 mph range at times.
The main wx threats in the short term period continue to be focused on strong to severe thunderstorms potential this afternoon/evening, as well as Monday/Monday evening and possibly on Tuesday.
For this afternoon/evening, the storm threat will focus on the environment east of a dryline around the Palmer Divide. Morning rainfall east may have helped to stabilize portions of the region, but with storms popping up around the outskirts of the CWA, any CIN from this morning is quickly eroding. In the south and west, SBCape has already jumped to 3000-4500j/kg, DCape in the 1000-1300j/kg range and with high dewpts still over the CWA, the airmass is primed for storms. SPC has a Severe Thunderstorm Watch out for KS counties from Graham southwest to Greeley. The main activity should stay east of these counties. It will be the storms that are forming along dryline/front which is slowly pushing towards the CO/KS/NE border.
Hail/wind still main threats, but can't rule out an isolated tornado or land spout. Heavy rainfall continues to accompany any storms that have occurred, so flooding still occur.
Storm activity tapers by 06z tonight, allowing for clouds/precip to clear from west to east. Guidance is hinting at some fog potential east, so have a mention in around 12z Monday.
As with past model runs, the Mon-Tue timeframe will continue to focus rw/trw activity mainly north of I-70, especially north of Highway 36. the aforementioned front/dryline does develop a low on its southern edge, settling south of the CWA Monday. A couple shortwaves will move eastward along the northern tier late Monday and again late Tuesday. The currently track will focus the highest pops(80-90%) from Highway 36 north. Ample low level moisture on Monday along the surface feature will interact with the passing shortwave to trigger convection. There are Slight/Marginal risk areas, divided by I-70. Wind/hail threats look most impactful.
Isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out either. Tuesday will see similar conditions, ending with a cold frontal passage during the day.
Accompanying the storm threats, will be the potential for torrential rainfall. The pace of these storms through the CWA this morning has been mixed and did allow for 1-3" of rain in northeast zones. WPC does have a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall mainly east today and for Monday, Highway 36 north. The shift to the Mon-Tue rain setup will put most areas in flooding potential, especially those seeing ample QPF today and tonight.
For temps, looking for daytime highs on Monday to range from the mid 70s north into the lower and mid 80s south especially along/south of Highway 40. With the slow passage of the cold front, Tuesday will be much cooler with highs ranging from 60F in the northwest to the mid 70s in the south and far eastern zones. Central portions of the CWA will see a mix of 60s.
Overnight lows tonight and for Monday night will have a range from the mid 40s west into the mid and upper 50s east. Tuesday night however, with a cooler airmass still in place, upper 30s to the mid 40s are expected west of Highway 25. East of there, mid to upper 40s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 1238 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024
The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF continue to show chances(20- 40%) for rw/trw activity. Several shortwaves set to traverse the CWA during this time, based on current track of each system, areas north of the area will see the best chance for convection. Both models do show differences as to the timing and placement of convection due to the movement of a surface low/front components, but overall the convection will mostly occur during the evening hours. Best instability/moisture will reside in the eastern portions of the CWA as dewpts will range in the 40s/50s through Friday before expanding area-wide for next weekend.
For temps, looking for near to below normal daytime highs for Wednesday in the lower to mid 70s. Going into the remainder of the week into next weekend, daytime highs will peak in the lower to mid 80s Thursday, with a mix of mainly 70s thereafter. Warmest locales from Thursday onward will be south of the Interstate. Some areas south of Highway 40 though could approach the 80F mark. These areas will see the lowest chances for clouds/rain. Overnight lows will range from the mid and upper 40s west into the lower to mid 50s east. Warmest overnight areas will occur along/east of Highway 83.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 324 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Mainly VFR conditions expected for both terminals. KGLD could see VCTS from 01z-03z Monday, and KMCK from 02z-04z. KMCK could see MVFR ceilings from 08z-12z Monday. Winds for KGLD, south 10-15kts veering west-southwest from 01z-11z. From 11z Monday onward, northeast 10-20kts. Winds for KMCK, southeast 10-15kts through 02z, then northeast 5-15kts.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 325 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Strong to severe storms remain forecasted for today/tonight with hail around two inches in diameter and wind gusts around 70 mph possible. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for far SE/E counties.
- Storms; some severe north of Interstate 70 are forecast Monday. Main hazards are large hail, damaging winds and torrential rainfall.
- Cooler with frost concerns mid week.
UPDATE
Issued at 139 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #260 is now in effect through 03z Monday for the following NW Kansas counties: Gove, Greeley, Graham and Wichita. These areas will be most prone based on currently developing/moving through the DDC CWA Same threats as before, mainly wind and hail. Isolated tornado/landspout possible and heavy rainfall as well.
Will be monitoring the current activity to possibly add in additional counties later today.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Across the region this afternoon, skies are a mixed sunny down to partly sunny. Not much remains from the morning veil of low cloud, as storms are starting to develop around the outskirts of the CWA
Temperatures as of 200 PM MDT are ranging in the 60s and 70s. The cooler temperatures are those locales still being affected by clouds. Winds are southerly with gusts into the 20-30 mph range at times.
The main wx threats in the short term period continue to be focused on strong to severe thunderstorms potential this afternoon/evening, as well as Monday/Monday evening and possibly on Tuesday.
For this afternoon/evening, the storm threat will focus on the environment east of a dryline around the Palmer Divide. Morning rainfall east may have helped to stabilize portions of the region, but with storms popping up around the outskirts of the CWA, any CIN from this morning is quickly eroding. In the south and west, SBCape has already jumped to 3000-4500j/kg, DCape in the 1000-1300j/kg range and with high dewpts still over the CWA, the airmass is primed for storms. SPC has a Severe Thunderstorm Watch out for KS counties from Graham southwest to Greeley. The main activity should stay east of these counties. It will be the storms that are forming along dryline/front which is slowly pushing towards the CO/KS/NE border.
Hail/wind still main threats, but can't rule out an isolated tornado or land spout. Heavy rainfall continues to accompany any storms that have occurred, so flooding still occur.
Storm activity tapers by 06z tonight, allowing for clouds/precip to clear from west to east. Guidance is hinting at some fog potential east, so have a mention in around 12z Monday.
As with past model runs, the Mon-Tue timeframe will continue to focus rw/trw activity mainly north of I-70, especially north of Highway 36. the aforementioned front/dryline does develop a low on its southern edge, settling south of the CWA Monday. A couple shortwaves will move eastward along the northern tier late Monday and again late Tuesday. The currently track will focus the highest pops(80-90%) from Highway 36 north. Ample low level moisture on Monday along the surface feature will interact with the passing shortwave to trigger convection. There are Slight/Marginal risk areas, divided by I-70. Wind/hail threats look most impactful.
Isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out either. Tuesday will see similar conditions, ending with a cold frontal passage during the day.
Accompanying the storm threats, will be the potential for torrential rainfall. The pace of these storms through the CWA this morning has been mixed and did allow for 1-3" of rain in northeast zones. WPC does have a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall mainly east today and for Monday, Highway 36 north. The shift to the Mon-Tue rain setup will put most areas in flooding potential, especially those seeing ample QPF today and tonight.
For temps, looking for daytime highs on Monday to range from the mid 70s north into the lower and mid 80s south especially along/south of Highway 40. With the slow passage of the cold front, Tuesday will be much cooler with highs ranging from 60F in the northwest to the mid 70s in the south and far eastern zones. Central portions of the CWA will see a mix of 60s.
Overnight lows tonight and for Monday night will have a range from the mid 40s west into the mid and upper 50s east. Tuesday night however, with a cooler airmass still in place, upper 30s to the mid 40s are expected west of Highway 25. East of there, mid to upper 40s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 1238 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024
The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF continue to show chances(20- 40%) for rw/trw activity. Several shortwaves set to traverse the CWA during this time, based on current track of each system, areas north of the area will see the best chance for convection. Both models do show differences as to the timing and placement of convection due to the movement of a surface low/front components, but overall the convection will mostly occur during the evening hours. Best instability/moisture will reside in the eastern portions of the CWA as dewpts will range in the 40s/50s through Friday before expanding area-wide for next weekend.
For temps, looking for near to below normal daytime highs for Wednesday in the lower to mid 70s. Going into the remainder of the week into next weekend, daytime highs will peak in the lower to mid 80s Thursday, with a mix of mainly 70s thereafter. Warmest locales from Thursday onward will be south of the Interstate. Some areas south of Highway 40 though could approach the 80F mark. These areas will see the lowest chances for clouds/rain. Overnight lows will range from the mid and upper 40s west into the lower to mid 50s east. Warmest overnight areas will occur along/east of Highway 83.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 324 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Mainly VFR conditions expected for both terminals. KGLD could see VCTS from 01z-03z Monday, and KMCK from 02z-04z. KMCK could see MVFR ceilings from 08z-12z Monday. Winds for KGLD, south 10-15kts veering west-southwest from 01z-11z. From 11z Monday onward, northeast 10-20kts. Winds for KMCK, southeast 10-15kts through 02z, then northeast 5-15kts.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KOEL OAKLEY MUNI,KS | 18 sm | 23 min | SSE 08G13 | 10 sm | Clear | 84°F | 61°F | 45% | 29.73 |
Goodland, KS,
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