Sharon Springs, KS Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sharon Springs, KS

June 17, 2024 2:06 PM CDT (19:06 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 9:10 PM
Moonrise 4:14 PM   Moonset 2:11 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sharon Springs, KS
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Area Discussion for - Goodland, KS
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FXUS63 KGLD 171705 AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1105 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening from Yuma County in Colorado east along the Kansas and Nebraska border area. A cold front will be in this area and any thunderstorm that develops will be capable of producing large to very large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two. Elsewhere, there is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, but confidence is low that they will develop and they would be isolated.

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon and early evening in Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties of Colorado where low humidity and gusty winds will develop west of the dry line.

- Very windy conditions are anticipated along the Kansas and Colorado border area this evening and continue into the overnight hours. South winds gusting up to 65 mph will be possible. Some blowing dust is possible from late afternoon to the early evening in this area.

- There is a marginal to slight risk for severe thunderstorms from late Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon along and east of a Norton to Leoti line in northwest Kansas as a cold front moves through. A few storms may be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.

- Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible Tuesday night. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur along and south of a Norton to Tribune line in northwest Kansas, but heavy rainfall cannot be ruled in the remainder of northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska as well. Lowest rainfall amounts will be in northeast Colorado.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The set up for today is very similar to yesterday. Southwest flow continues aloft with another embedded shortwave trough moving through in the afternoon and evening. The trough might be a little stronger than yesterday. At the surface stationary front will be in the northern Yuma County and eastward into southwest Nebraska, but lifting north as a warm front in the afternoon. A diffuse dry line will be trailing south from the surface low in northeast Colorado along the Kansas and Colorado border area. There will be a relatively short window when the front will be in the forecast area which will complicate things, as it will be the favored location for convective initiation.
Right now, looks like the front will be in the area through about 21-22z before lifting out, so storms will have to initiate before that time to tap into the favorable environment near the front, which is what the NAMnest shows. Elsewhere, cannot completely rule out isolated storms south along the dry line which would move east into a moist and unstable environment, but confidence is lower and mid level temperatures may be too warm for the cap to break. Possible tornadic environment will be along and north of the front, as well as best parameters for very large hail as was seen yesterday. South of the front, the environment is more marginal for hail and wind, though the instability and shear do increase further east should a storm get east of Highway 25. The other potential hazard for today and especially tonight will be strong winds.
Low level jet strengthens near the Kansas and Colorado border area after 00z and continues through about 09z. The core of the LLJ is just off the surface, so despite unfavorable nocturnal timing for mixing it will not take much to get those winds to the ground. HRRR shows gusts in the 60-65 mph range for the area where the High Wind Watch was issued. Blowing dust parameters are briefly favorable early in the evening, but lapse rates not as favorable by mid evening, so confidence is low in blowing dust. Finally, with the dry and windy conditions west of the dry line this afternoon, issued a Red Flag Warning for Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in northeast Colorado. Highs today will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s and lows tonight in the 60s and 70s.

The surface cold front finally moves late tonight and will be surging southeastward through the forecast area Tuesday morning, stalling out across southwest and central Kansas Tuesday afternoon. May see a few showers and thunderstorms develop along the front as early as Tuesday morning, then in far southeast areas Tuesday afternoon. There is a marginal risk for severe storms with the front, though if the front is faster the risk for severe storms may be south of the area. High temperatures will range from the upper 70s well behind the front in northeast Colorado to the lower 90s ahead of it from Hill City to Tribune and south. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage Tuesday night as a shortwave trough moves through in the southwest flow over the moist post frontal upslope environment now in the forecast area. Heavy rainfall and flooding will be a concern Tuesday night. Highest QPF will most likely be across southern counties, from Norton to Tribune and south, where mean QPF is around 1 inch but higher percentiles are between 2 and 3 inches. Even further north 1 to 2 inches will be possible in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska, with lowest amounts in Colorado with perhaps some local amounts up to 1 inch near the Kansas border. Lows Tuesday night will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday will be cool and cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the day. Instability will be very limited across much of the area, though the front may drift north into the southeast corner during the afternoon, Hill City to Gove, with weak to moderate instability possible there but weak shear at only 20 kts. There might be a marginal severe risk in that area, but otherwise not anticipating severe storms. High temperatures will be mainly in the 60s with the clouds and rain, with some lower 70s across southeast areas. The front does appear to lift north Wednesday night and into the area once again. There is also a weak shortwave trough rotating in from the southwest. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue.
However, not seeing signals for heavy rainfall, with additional QPF less than a half inch currently expected. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be in the 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 311 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For the long term, we are looking at the potential for showers and thunderstorms daily through the weekend as we remained stuck in southwest flow aloft for much of the week. An upper high strengthens along the Mid-Atlantic Coast while another area of high pressure develops over Texas towards the Ohio Valley, the upper trough along the West Coast will continue to struggle to move east due to the blocking high until the weekend. The trough will begin to slide east over the Northern to Central Plains Saturday while high pressure remains over the Southern CONUS. A warm front will sit over the far northern portions of the Tri-State area on Thursday as weak shortwaves continue to move over the region and strengthen a lee surface trough over the Colorado Plains. The best time frame for any showers and storms will be during the afternoon and evening hours through Saturday with low confidence (less than 20%) for showers and storms on Sunday.

Thursday will begin a warming trend with highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. Friday and Saturday continue to warm back up with highs forecast to be in the upper 80s to 90s. Overnight lows on Friday could be in the 60s to lower 70s while Saturday night lows are forecast to fall into the upper 50s to 60s. Highs on Sunday are currently forecast to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows falling into the 60s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are currently forecast through the period.
Southerly winds gusting 30 to 45kts are expected from taf issuance through much of tonight with the stronger gusts after dark. Winds shift to the northwest around 12z, gusting up to 25kts. Winds then veer to the north, gusting up to 30kts.
Presently, no precipitation is forecast. Its possible that the terminal could be impacted by thunderstorms in the 23z-02z timeframe but confidence and areal coverage are too low to presently include in the forecast. There could be sub VFR cigs for a few hours either side of 12z Tuesday.

KMCK...VFR conditions are currently forecast through the period.
Southerly winds gusting 25 to 40kts are expected from taf issuance through much of tonight with the stronger gusts after sunset. Winds veer to the west-southwest, gusting up to 25kts around 12z, shifting to the northwest by 15z with gusts up to 30kts. Presently, no precipitation is forecast. Its possible that the terminal could be impacted by thunderstorms in the 01z-04z timeframe but confidence and areal coverage are too low to presently include in the forecast. Sub VFR cigs are possible for a few hours either side of 12z Tuesday.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...High Wind Watch from 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening through late tonight for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...High Wind Watch from 6 PM MDT this evening through late tonight for COZ090>092.
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254.
NE...High Wind Watch from 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening through late tonight for NEZ079-080.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KGLD33 sm13 minSSW 16G2310 smClear97°F57°F27%29.59
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Goodland, KS,




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