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FXUS63 KGLD 012140 AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 240 PM MST Fri Dec 1 2023

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 135 PM MST Fri Dec 1 2023

Tonight...confidence has increased a bit compared to 24 hours ago that light snow will move off the Palmer Divide and into parts of far eastern Colorado early this evening, continuing northeast overnight, impacting much of northwest Kansas (generally along and north of I-70) and parts of extreme southwest Nebraska. Generalized snowfall amounts of a few tenths of an inch are possible with localized amounts perhaps reaching an inch. There may also be some fog/freezing fog moving into the eastern/southeastern parts of the forecast area after midnight. Low temperatures will range from the lower teens to lower 20s.

Saturday-Saturday night...light snow will remain possible in the morning, mainly east of Highway 25 before exiting the area around or shortly after the noon hour. There could be additional accumulations up to an inch. Northwest winds increase behind the departing upper trough axis with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range, mainly west of Highway 27. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to upper 40s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle teens to middle 20s.

Sunday-Sunday night...the forecast area is under northwest flow aloft. A weather disturbance within the flow moves through during the day with the only impacts being windy northwest winds with gusts up to 45, maybe 50 mph. No significant weather is expected during the night. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower 40s to lower 50s with low temperatures in the middle teens to middle 20s.

If the GFS model is correct, we would see some blowing dust across much of the area from mid/late morning through the afternoon. This is based on local research parameters with the main drivers being 0.5-1km wind speeds of at least 45kts and steep 0-2km lapse rates of at least 8C/KM. However, the ECMWF (which doesnt do as well in identifying these events) has lower 0.5-1km wind speeds but unstable 0-2km lapse rates. The GFS model has been running "hot" of late with wind speeds higher than generally realized. We'll wait another 12 to 24 hours and see how the 00z, 06z, and 12z model guidance comes in with before advertising the blowing dust threat.

Monday-Monday night...dry northwest flow aloft continues. Breezy northwest winds are possible along and north of I-70 during the day.
High temperatures rise into the 60 to 65 degree range with low temperatures in the lower 20s to lower 30s.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 135 PM MST Fri Dec 1 2023

Tuesday...broad upper level ridging approaches from the west. With little moisture available in the 850-500mb layer, dry weather is forecast. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 55 to 60 degree range with low temperatures in the middle 20s to lower 30s.

Wednesday...despite the approaching upper ridge axis flattening as it moves over our area, 850mb temperatures rise and support high temperatures in the middle 60s to near 70 degrees. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 20s to middle 30s. The atmosphere remains void of moisture in the 850-300mb layer so we will remain dry.

Thursday...near zonal flow is forecast across the area. Once again, little if any moisture for precipitation in the 850-300mb layer so dry weather continues. High temperatures remain mild for early December with readings in the lower to upper 60s. The Burlington and Yuma areas could see record/near record high temperatures (68 is the record set in 1959 in Burlington, 65 in Yuma set back in 1965). Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 20s to lower 30s.

Friday...upper level ridging strengthens ahead of a low pressure system which by 12z Saturday is forecast to be organizing over central California. Dry conditions are expected. High temperatures cool a bit with readings in the 55 to 60 degree range currently forecast.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 240 PM MST Fri Dec 1 2023

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A southeasterly wind up to 10kts at taf issuance will veer to the southwest at similar speeds by 07z, west around 15z and northwest at speeds around 15kts with higher gusts from 20z-22z. After 23z, winds fall to around 11kts from the northwest. There is a chance of light snow near/over the terminal in the 06z-15z timeframe.
Its possible that visibilities could be reduced below VFR category but at this time will only mention VCSH as specifics as to whether the terminal is directly impacted are somewhat questionable.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light and variable winds are forecast from taf issuance through 18z, becoming westerly at speeds under 10kts through the rest of the taf period. There is a chance of light snow near/over the terminal in the 12z-18z timeframe. Its possible that visibilities could be reduced below VFR category but at this time will only mention VCSH.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

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