Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sharon Springs, KS
May 18, 2024 5:22 AM CDT (10:22 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:28 AM Sunset 8:51 PM Moonrise 3:26 PM Moonset 3:05 AM |
FXUS63 KGLD 180838 AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 238 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Active period begins this evening with showers and storms overnight; marginally severe hail is possible along with torrential rainfall.
- The relative better potential for severe weather is Sunday and Monday. Very large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards Sunday.
- Cooler with frost concerns mid week.
- Active weather may return next weekend (Memorial Day Weekend)
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 226 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024
Weak cold front and associated wind shift is moving into northern portions of the CWA currently. Some spotty virga or sprinkles may be possible post frontal for an hour or two. The cold front then looks to stall south of the area during the day time as a surface high then develops across eastern Nebraska.
The surface high will then create a more easterly/upsloping component to the winds along for some moisture return. A disturbance then moves off of the Rockies during the mid to late afternoon time fram allowing for some showers and storms to move into the area from the Front Range and move to the northeast. The above mentioned stationary boundary then begins to creep ever so slowly back to the north overnight Saturday and early Sunday morning. The lift from the Rockies wave looks to interact with this boundary and form additional storms roughly along a Cheyenne Wells to Norton line. Last night the NAM was the most aggressive with showing a couple thousand joules over elevated MUCAPE; more guidance is starting to suggest this now as well which has increased my concern for some instances of severe hail around quarter size starting around 06Z through sunrise Sunday. Looking at forecasted 0-6 wind shear it appears that the strongest shear looks to be around initiation time near 06Z and then waning through sunrise. PWATS increase to around 1.25 inches overnight as well creating the potential for torrential rainfall. Still continue to think that any flooding potential will be low as these storms will moving fairly quickly but will need to keep an eye on back building and training storms as some guidance does suggest that rainfall may last through about 8am Sunday.
Sunday, then continues to be the day of interest for the short term.
Severe threat is looking a bit more promising than vs 24 hours ago.
Last night there were some concerns about fog/stratus lingering across eastern portions of the area which would limit overall instability. While this does continue to remain a possibility, especially if morning convection does linger; most guidance has the temperatures rebounding. I did nudge down high temperatures across the northeast a few degrees if this scenario does pan out; but was not as aggressive as I would have been last night in this situation.
As anticipated last night, the severe threat has shifted more westward as guidance has gotten on board with the western placement of the dryline which the NAM was suggesting. Discrete storms look to initiate along the dryline (roughly Highway 385)
during the afternoon hours. I have fairly high confidence (70%)
that these storms will remain discrete as a cap will be in place. Any storm that does manage to develop during this time will have the potential for very large hail, perhaps up to tennis ball size with MUCAPE around 2500-3000 j/kg, steep lapse rates and 0-6 shear around 40-45 knots. Once storms finally do initiate they are anticipated to grow upscale into more of a cluster posing more of a damaging wind and heavy threat; this currently favors locales east of Kansas Highway 25. Dependent on how much rainfall occurs Saturday night into Sunday morning, there may be more of an increased threat for flooding. Locales east of Highway 83 may be the relative more at risk as some portions of Gove County received 1-3 inches of rain earlier in the week. Storms look to move completely out of the area between 10p-1am CT across the east. Some additional storms may try to develop behind this cluster but currently think these should remain sub severe.
Some near critical to locally critical fire weather concerns look to be present behind the dryline with RH values in the low to mid teens and gusts up to 25 mph especially from around the 22-00Z time when mixing should be strongest; mainly favoring Cheyenne county Colorado. Not planning and fire weather headlines this forecast package due to the anticipated limited spatial area and more marginal conditions. Upcoming shifts will need to keep an eye on this potential however.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 226 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024
Monday will see another potential for showers and perhaps severe storms. Monday's setup is a bit more difficult as the better forcing is a bit further north. Continue to anticipate the potential for two rounds of potentially severe thunderstorms with discrete cells initially and then a potential MCS developing during the evening hours. Moisture will for sure be in place across the area with drier air to the south of the CWA Watching for an initial shortwave during the afternoon hours interacting with a developing surface low across SW Kansas. This would be the timeframe for initial discrete cells. All hazards may be possible with this initial activity with MUCAPE of around 1500 j/kg, very strong 0-6km shear in excess of 55 knots and low LCL's supporting 1500-2000 j/kg of SBCAPE.
A potential 2nd round of severe weather may occur as a potential MCS moves across northern portions of the CWA with an advancing cold front. Damaging winds, torrential rainfall are the primary hazards but may need to keep an eye on potential quick QLCS spinup tornadoes across the leading edge of the line. Continue to think widespread flooding with the torrential rainfall is unlikely given very high Corfidi Vector motions but will need to monitor for back building of rainfall behind the initial line (post frontal). This MCS should be through the CWA between 1-3 am CT.
Another round of rainfall looks to move through the area Tuesday with a 2nd but stronger cold front. Currently not very convinced on overall severe threat as the environment may be worked over from previous days storms, but wind shear would be sufficient for a potential severe storm. The front looks to move through the area during the mid afternoon; with best threat of rainfall being post frontal with a wave off of the Rockies during the late afternoon/early evening hours.
Mid-week at this time does appear to be more tranquil as the area will be in between systems. However towards the latter portion of the week and into Memorial Day weekend another trough with moisture return ahead of it moves into the area.
Temperatures for the extended period look to start out cooler with the rainfall and cold fronts. Tuesday night and Wednesday morning continue to look to be the coldest nights with overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. I continue to have concerns for frost development Wednesday, especially if clouds clear out as winds will be light and enough boundary layer moisture would be in place especially if enough rainfall can occur. I have added in patchy frost across portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado. Some guidance does indicate clouds and precipitation linger through Wednesday morning which if the case would eliminate frost potential, but give how far into May we are and more and more cold sensitive vegetation blooming and being sold figured to go ahead and add in the frost into the forecast where confidence is highest at this time.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1053 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024
For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period. LLWS has been observed and will continue through the night. Around 08-09Z, a wind shift to out of the northwest is still expected and winds will pick up a bit. Winds will remain elevated around 15kts with gusts around 27kts until the late afternoon hours. The last thing of note is that some storms are possible around the 02-06Z time frame. Currently chances are 30% or less so just have VCTS at KGLD where storms are more possible (but could still miss the terminal to the south).
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 226 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024
Some potential does exist for torrential rainfall and isolated flash flooding starting Saturday night/Sunday morning into early portions of the new work week. The majority of the area, especially western and southern portions have seen a lack of rainfall in recent weeks and worsening drought conditions.
Overall main concern for any hydro issues lies to the east of Highway 83 in Kansas where portions of Gove county for example received 1-3 inches of rainfall earlier in the week. PWATS will rapidly increase tonight around 1.25 inches and remain above 1 inch for the duration of the weekend. Overall widespread flooding potential is relatively low as overall systems should be fairly quick moving with fast Corfidi Vectors. The overall main concern for any hydro related issues lies in multiple rounds of heavy rainfall and any potential training locales.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 238 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Active period begins this evening with showers and storms overnight; marginally severe hail is possible along with torrential rainfall.
- The relative better potential for severe weather is Sunday and Monday. Very large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards Sunday.
- Cooler with frost concerns mid week.
- Active weather may return next weekend (Memorial Day Weekend)
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 226 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024
Weak cold front and associated wind shift is moving into northern portions of the CWA currently. Some spotty virga or sprinkles may be possible post frontal for an hour or two. The cold front then looks to stall south of the area during the day time as a surface high then develops across eastern Nebraska.
The surface high will then create a more easterly/upsloping component to the winds along for some moisture return. A disturbance then moves off of the Rockies during the mid to late afternoon time fram allowing for some showers and storms to move into the area from the Front Range and move to the northeast. The above mentioned stationary boundary then begins to creep ever so slowly back to the north overnight Saturday and early Sunday morning. The lift from the Rockies wave looks to interact with this boundary and form additional storms roughly along a Cheyenne Wells to Norton line. Last night the NAM was the most aggressive with showing a couple thousand joules over elevated MUCAPE; more guidance is starting to suggest this now as well which has increased my concern for some instances of severe hail around quarter size starting around 06Z through sunrise Sunday. Looking at forecasted 0-6 wind shear it appears that the strongest shear looks to be around initiation time near 06Z and then waning through sunrise. PWATS increase to around 1.25 inches overnight as well creating the potential for torrential rainfall. Still continue to think that any flooding potential will be low as these storms will moving fairly quickly but will need to keep an eye on back building and training storms as some guidance does suggest that rainfall may last through about 8am Sunday.
Sunday, then continues to be the day of interest for the short term.
Severe threat is looking a bit more promising than vs 24 hours ago.
Last night there were some concerns about fog/stratus lingering across eastern portions of the area which would limit overall instability. While this does continue to remain a possibility, especially if morning convection does linger; most guidance has the temperatures rebounding. I did nudge down high temperatures across the northeast a few degrees if this scenario does pan out; but was not as aggressive as I would have been last night in this situation.
As anticipated last night, the severe threat has shifted more westward as guidance has gotten on board with the western placement of the dryline which the NAM was suggesting. Discrete storms look to initiate along the dryline (roughly Highway 385)
during the afternoon hours. I have fairly high confidence (70%)
that these storms will remain discrete as a cap will be in place. Any storm that does manage to develop during this time will have the potential for very large hail, perhaps up to tennis ball size with MUCAPE around 2500-3000 j/kg, steep lapse rates and 0-6 shear around 40-45 knots. Once storms finally do initiate they are anticipated to grow upscale into more of a cluster posing more of a damaging wind and heavy threat; this currently favors locales east of Kansas Highway 25. Dependent on how much rainfall occurs Saturday night into Sunday morning, there may be more of an increased threat for flooding. Locales east of Highway 83 may be the relative more at risk as some portions of Gove County received 1-3 inches of rain earlier in the week. Storms look to move completely out of the area between 10p-1am CT across the east. Some additional storms may try to develop behind this cluster but currently think these should remain sub severe.
Some near critical to locally critical fire weather concerns look to be present behind the dryline with RH values in the low to mid teens and gusts up to 25 mph especially from around the 22-00Z time when mixing should be strongest; mainly favoring Cheyenne county Colorado. Not planning and fire weather headlines this forecast package due to the anticipated limited spatial area and more marginal conditions. Upcoming shifts will need to keep an eye on this potential however.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 226 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024
Monday will see another potential for showers and perhaps severe storms. Monday's setup is a bit more difficult as the better forcing is a bit further north. Continue to anticipate the potential for two rounds of potentially severe thunderstorms with discrete cells initially and then a potential MCS developing during the evening hours. Moisture will for sure be in place across the area with drier air to the south of the CWA Watching for an initial shortwave during the afternoon hours interacting with a developing surface low across SW Kansas. This would be the timeframe for initial discrete cells. All hazards may be possible with this initial activity with MUCAPE of around 1500 j/kg, very strong 0-6km shear in excess of 55 knots and low LCL's supporting 1500-2000 j/kg of SBCAPE.
A potential 2nd round of severe weather may occur as a potential MCS moves across northern portions of the CWA with an advancing cold front. Damaging winds, torrential rainfall are the primary hazards but may need to keep an eye on potential quick QLCS spinup tornadoes across the leading edge of the line. Continue to think widespread flooding with the torrential rainfall is unlikely given very high Corfidi Vector motions but will need to monitor for back building of rainfall behind the initial line (post frontal). This MCS should be through the CWA between 1-3 am CT.
Another round of rainfall looks to move through the area Tuesday with a 2nd but stronger cold front. Currently not very convinced on overall severe threat as the environment may be worked over from previous days storms, but wind shear would be sufficient for a potential severe storm. The front looks to move through the area during the mid afternoon; with best threat of rainfall being post frontal with a wave off of the Rockies during the late afternoon/early evening hours.
Mid-week at this time does appear to be more tranquil as the area will be in between systems. However towards the latter portion of the week and into Memorial Day weekend another trough with moisture return ahead of it moves into the area.
Temperatures for the extended period look to start out cooler with the rainfall and cold fronts. Tuesday night and Wednesday morning continue to look to be the coldest nights with overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. I continue to have concerns for frost development Wednesday, especially if clouds clear out as winds will be light and enough boundary layer moisture would be in place especially if enough rainfall can occur. I have added in patchy frost across portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado. Some guidance does indicate clouds and precipitation linger through Wednesday morning which if the case would eliminate frost potential, but give how far into May we are and more and more cold sensitive vegetation blooming and being sold figured to go ahead and add in the frost into the forecast where confidence is highest at this time.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1053 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024
For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period. LLWS has been observed and will continue through the night. Around 08-09Z, a wind shift to out of the northwest is still expected and winds will pick up a bit. Winds will remain elevated around 15kts with gusts around 27kts until the late afternoon hours. The last thing of note is that some storms are possible around the 02-06Z time frame. Currently chances are 30% or less so just have VCTS at KGLD where storms are more possible (but could still miss the terminal to the south).
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 226 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024
Some potential does exist for torrential rainfall and isolated flash flooding starting Saturday night/Sunday morning into early portions of the new work week. The majority of the area, especially western and southern portions have seen a lack of rainfall in recent weeks and worsening drought conditions.
Overall main concern for any hydro issues lies to the east of Highway 83 in Kansas where portions of Gove county for example received 1-3 inches of rainfall earlier in the week. PWATS will rapidly increase tonight around 1.25 inches and remain above 1 inch for the duration of the weekend. Overall widespread flooding potential is relatively low as overall systems should be fairly quick moving with fast Corfidi Vectors. The overall main concern for any hydro related issues lies in multiple rounds of heavy rainfall and any potential training locales.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
Goodland, KS,
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