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FXUS63 KGLD 110025 AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 525 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2023

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 238 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2023

A weak surface trough across the region this afternoon, combined with the passage of a mid level shortwave, is bringing a partly to mostly sunny mix to the area. Winds ahead of the trough are light out of the southwest, with west-northwest flow behind it. Despite the cloud cover, temperatures as of 200 PM MST are ranging in the mid 40s to the lower 50s.

For the remainder of the afternoon hrs will continue to see the current above normal temps with a slight increase over the next couple hours. The airmass remains very dry as RH values are ranging mainly in the teens with areas east of Highway 83 in the 20-30% range. No concerns for fire wx products this afternoon, as winds will be lacking criteria, but RH is present. Going into tonight, looking for temps to drop at sunset, but with clouds over the area, radiational cooling effects limited and will see lows close to last night.

Going into Monday, the passage of a weak surface ridge during the morning hours will be replaced by a weak inverted trough over eastern Colorado by midday. Short term guidance shows this trough moving east into the plains through the afternoon, bringing in CAA as winds shift to the northwest, and thus cooler highs compared to today.

Monday night on into Tuesday night will put the focus on a 500mb shortwave/low that drops from the western portion of the country into the Desert SW. NAM/GFS show weak ridging ahead of this allowing for a weak shortwave to traverse its northern periphery. Differences in the timing/placement of the shortwave do occur but are affected by low level moisture input. A strong surface high builds south during this time and sets up east-southeast upslope flow that will feed some moisture to NW portions of the CWA. Current consensus track of the shortwave puts and west to east trajectory north of the CWA, barely scraping portions of Yuma/Dundy counties. Right now do not think these counties will be impacted other than some flurries/light snow showers with no accum.

For temps, highs on Monday will be above normal and range in the 50s with warmest areas east of the Colorado border. Going into Tuesday, cooler and below normal with a range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s in the northwest to the mid 40s in southern and far eastern locales. Overnight lows will range in the 20s each night, with the warmest night occurring Monday night with most areas east of Highway 25 dropping into the mid and upper 20s. Wind chill readings for the overnight periods will range in the teens.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2023

Cloudy skies and a chance at precipitation in the mid-week is in store for the Tri-State area.

We will begin the period with an upper-level low pressure system moving over the southern Rockies. It will take until Thursday afternoon for the axis of this feature to be over the CWA. We look to remain under overcast conditions until Friday when a cold front will move through the area.

A 500 mb low pressure system looks to slowly move over the Southern Plains Thursday through Friday evening. This low will be the driving force for our weather, even though it will likely not pass over the CWA. Precipitation looks to start Wednesday morning and potentially last last until around 0Z Friday. The big limiting factor for precipitation will be the lack of forcing, with the best forcing being co-located with the 500 mb low. This leads to increased PoPs in the southern CWA that quickly drop off to the north. Maximum PoPs look to occur 0-6Z Thursday with ~60 PoPs in Wichita and Greeley counties. PoPs along I-70 are generally around 40 with most locations along and north of highway 36 being under 30 PoPs.

Moisture will be provided by a high pressure system over the Midwest forcing warm, moist Gulf air to move into the area. QPF has increased over the past 24 hours (up to around 0.4 inches in the southern counties), but confidence is low that this much precipitation will fall.

P-types are very tricky with this system. As the forecast stands, snow and a rain/snow mix will begin Wednesday around 12Z. As the day warms (southern WAA), a melting layer is expected to form and persist throughout the remainder of the event. This melting layer will cause the dominate P-type to be rain with localized rain/snow mix. However, this melting layer is going to be fragile and a few minor changes could destroy it.

The first thing that could happen is weaker than expected WAA occurs. This would prevent a melting layer from forming or have the melting layer disappear after its formation. The impacts of this would be more snow, and/or a flash freeze if a melting layer were to initially form. Confidence in this occurring is around 10%.

Another potential complication involves banding precipitation and evaporational cooling. GFS and ECMWF are both showing Theta E temperatures that suggest conditional instability. If there were enough forcing over an area with some instability, very efficient precipitation could occur. This efficient precipitation would form as ice/snow and would initially melt in the melting layer. However, as that occurs, the evaporational cooling would likely be stronger than the WAA and would erode the melting layer. This would allow higher snowfalls to occur under the banded area and locations to the north, as the southerly WAA would be blocked. Confidence in this occurring is less than 5%.

Also, there may not be enough forcing for precipitation to occur, leading to prolonged cloudy and foggy conditions. The "best" time for fog to form would be at the start and end of the event. GFS cross-sections show a saturated surface layer with negative lapse rates and ESE winds Wednesday morning with little/no forcing above.
This possibility could be the most dangerous due to the potential for freezing fog or drizzle if/when temperatures drop below freezing. This increases confidence in advection fog forming to 15- 20% for Greeley and Wichita counties.

Friday will see a cold front sweep through the area and clear out most of the lingering moisture. Even with a cold moving through, clear skies will allow Friday to warm up into the 50s, about 7-13 degrees warmer than the previous two days. With the cleared skies, Friday night will cool off efficiently, likely into the lower 20s.
That would be about 10-13 degrees cooler than Wednesday night.
Thursday night looks to cool into the 20s to low 30s. Saturday and Sunday look to warm into the 50s with the clear skies. A weak warm front looks to move through Saturday followed by a weak cold front on Sunday.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 336 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2023

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.

Winds for KGLD, northwest 5-10kts through 04z Monday then westerly. By 17z, veering northwest again. (Update 5:25pm MT) LLWS is no longer expected through the night. There may be a brief window of LLWS within 02-05Z if the surface winds remain at or below 5 kts with winds a few hundred feet above the surface forecasted to increase to around 25 kts.

Winds for KMCK, northwest 5-10kts through 06z Monday then westerly. By 20z, veering northwest again.



GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

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