Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cheyenne Wells, CO

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 1235 PM MST Mon Jan 13 2025

Low pressure across the upper Great Lakes continues keeping the region in NNW flow. Clear skies are currently across the area, but an increase in cloud cover overnight is forecast as a surface trough with an associated back door cold front nudges into the area. WNW winds are forecast to continue through the day and the night helping keep temperatures around normal for this part of January with highs in the 40s and lows falling into the mid to upper teens. Continuing to monitor the potential for fog and stratus overnight with the backdoor coldfront. Latest runs of the RAP and CONSHORT continue to keep the front and the associated wind shift to the ENE which is favorable for fog development just east of the forecast area in Phillips and Rooks counties so as of now will leave fog out of the forecast but will need to be monitored.

For Tuesday, a slightly cooler trend in temperatures has been noticed mainly due to the cooler air mass with the backdoor cold front and associated ridge axis so close to the eastern county warning area. A second area that will need to be watched is a weak disturbance moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle which looks to bring more cloud cover during the day to western portions of the area as mid level moisture increases. I was contemplating putting in flurries and/or light snow into the forecast across NW parts of the forecast but am opting to hold off due to dry in the low levels and a trend of weaker omega in the lower part of the dendritic growth zone which will make it that much harder for anything to get through the dry layer other than virga. Highs for Tuesday are forecasted to be slightly cooler than today in the mid 30s to mid 40s with the mid 40s across the southern part of the forecast area where more sun should help warm them.

Wednesday, the low pressure across the upper Great Lakes will begin to move to the west transitioning the region to more of a pronounced NW flow. The difference with this NW flow pattern compared to what the region has seen thus far this winter is that a chunk of warmer air from the Pacific NW rides down the lee of the Rockies which will lead to warming trend for the region. High temperatures in the mid to upper 40s are forecast Wednesday and then into the mid to upper 50s on Thursday as more of a SW surface wind does look to help warm temperatures even more.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 220 PM MST Mon Jan 13 2025

..Prolonged Period of Dangerously Cold Temperatures and Wind Chill Readings expected this weekend and early next week..

Long range guidance indicates that deep troughing (cyclonic flow aloft) will envelope the Continental US this weekend and early next week.. as an upper level ridge (anchored ~500 miles west of the North American Coast) amplifies in the eastern Pacific. Synoptic patterns such as this are typically associated with significant Arctic outbreaks in the Continental US (east of the Rockies).

Indeed, long range guidance indicates that a large/broad Arctic airmass will surge southward from Canada into the CONUS this weekend (beginning Fri night-Sat AM). While the core of the Arctic airmass (characterized by 850 mb temperatures as cold as -28 to -35C) will likely reside over the Dakotas, Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes (well northeast of the Tri-State area)..
850 mb temperatures ranging from -10C to -20C appear likely in the Goodland county warning area. High confidence in well below- average temperatures Sat-Sun-Mon, coldest Sun-Mon when highs may not exceed the teens, lows may approach 5 to 10 degrees below 0F and a persistent N-NNW breeze will foster wind chill readings around -10F to -25F. For context, average high temperatures in mid January are in the lower 40's and average lows are in the mid-upper teens.

Shortwave energy in cyclonic flow aloft may foster periods of light snow (and blowing snow) this weekend and early next week, with the relative greatest potential in geographically favored areas (e.g. Palmer Divide), though
at this range
forecast specifics (precipitation, in particular) cannot yet be ascertained with confidence.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 241 PM MST Mon Jan 13 2025

VFR conditions remain forecasted for each terminal. Still forecasting a period of LLWS for KGLD due to a weak 850mb jet this evening and overnight. Winds are forecast to generally be from the WNW for the duration of the period; breezy winds gusting around 20 knots are forecast Tuesday afternoon. A period of stratus may impact KMCK towards the end of this TAF forecast; however confidence in exact timing of this is still low to medium at this time so will allude to the potential with a SCT030 for now.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.