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FXUS63 KGLD 300430 AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 930 PM MST Wed Nov 29 2023

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 107 PM MST Wed Nov 29 2023

At the start of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows the CWA having a westerly flow aloft being underneath an upper air ridge with a trough over the western CONUS. Current satellite imagery and surface observations report dry conditions across the CWA with some scattered high clouds. Going through the rest of today, models show the flow over the CWA turning west-southwesterly by the evening hours with the western trough moving over AZ/NV/UT.
At the surface, near critical to critical fire weather conditions continue along and west of KS-27 with south-southwesterly winds gusting up to around 25-30 kts and minimum RH values in the lower to middle teens. Winds look to slow down a bit in the evening ahead of a cold front approaching the region around midnight. Dry conditions look to continue through the rest of the day as well. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the upper teens to middle 20s range.

On Thursday, forecast guidance shows the CWA gaining a southwesterly flow before the afternoon as the trough continues its eastward progress. This trough begins to weaken a bit during the evening and pass over the CWA over before another trough develops in the western CONUS. At the surface, the aforementioned cold front passes through the region in the morning allowing for some breezy northerly winds gusting up to around 25-30 kts in some locations behind the frontal passage. During the evening hours, a surface low looks to move northeast through OK into southeastern KS allowing for a slight chance of flurries in the southeastern quadrant of the CWA late in the day. With the cooler air moving into the region behind the cold front and cloud cover increasing, daytime highs on Tuesday are expected to be in the middle 30s to lower 40s followed by overnight lows in the lower to upper teens and minimum wind chills in the single digits.

For Friday, models show the CWA having a southwesterly flow throughout the entire day with the newer trough moving eastward and having its axis over the Rockies late in the day. At the surface, mostly dry conditions are expected throughout the day as the surface low departs farther east. Models show the increased cloud continuing through the afternoon limiting daytime heating and keeping temperatures on the cooler side. The ECMWF's latest run shows a slight chance for light snow in in the afternoon mainly in eastern CO, but opting to keep PoPs low for now as other models do not agree with this at the moment. Daytime highs expect to be in the middle 30s to the lower 40s with overnight lows in the middle to upper teens.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1208 PM MST Wed Nov 29 2023

Relatively benign conditions forecasted for the long term period.
Some flurries/sprinkles are possible on Saturday. Greater uncertainty going into next week with the potential for shortwaves.

Guidance is currently suggesting that an upper trough is forecasted to be present across the Eastern CONUS for most of the period with an upper ridge forecasted to begin building into the Western CONUS.
This will keep the Tri-State area in northwest flow aloft which will make conditions a little more uncertain as smaller waves could move through the flow into the area until the ridge moves far enough east or another upper trough develops.

For Saturday through Tuesday, conditions are likely to remain seasonable with near average temperatures (highs in the 40's and 50's) and a chance for a few flurries and sprinkles (mainly on Saturday). For Saturday, there are a few ensemble solutions showing chances for accumulating snow mainly for eastern portions of the area. However, with a wide range in guidance (greater uncertainty)
and the current trend in guidance, I am not inclined to believe these solutions yet and have put sprinkles and flurries in the forecast for now (mainly favoring Northwest Kansas). Some upper level moisture and cooler temperatures are likely over the area Saturday, but the near surface air may be too dry for any accumulations.

For Wednesday and beyond, there is some uncertainty as to how much influence the trough will have over the area. Currently going with the trend of the ridge moving over the area Wed/Thur which would keep conditions dry and warmer (highs near 60 or warmer). If a trough moves in faster or deamplifies the ridge, seasonable temperatures and some chances for precipitation would be more likely for the mid part of the week.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 912 PM MST Wed Nov 29 2023

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period. A cold front is moving through the area, which is bringing in northwesterly winds. These winds will increase in intensity around sunrise. Throughout the day, these winds will gust up to around 20 kts for both TAF sites. Near sunset, the winds will lighten up and more clouds will begin moving into the area. Cloud bases will lower, but are not forecast to impact flight categories.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

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