Sunrise 6:58 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 4:38 PM   Moonset 4:43 AM

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FXUS63 KGLD 201115 AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 515 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and snow showers are still expected across most of the area today. Precipitation is expected to decrease in coverage and intensity through the day. Any new snow accumulations are generally expected to be under an inch. Any new rain accumulations are expected to be under a quarter of an inch.

- Near to above average temperatures are forecast for Sunday and beyond. There could be daily small chances for rain/storms.

- Increasing fire weather concerns generally south of Interstate 70 and west of Highway 25 Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 216 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

For the remainder of today, rain and snow shower are forecast for locales mainly along and north of I-70. Current radar observations show the precipitation slowly starting to shift north. This trend is expected to continue through the morning, with the heaviest precipitation generally along and north of Highway 36. This is based on RAP guidance suggesting that the precipitation is based more on isentropic lift with a lack of a surface boundary and lack of low to mid level frontogenesis. The best conditions are forecast to continue to gradually shift north through the morning with more intermittent conditions along and south of I-70. Snow still looks to generally be confined to north of I-70 and west of Highway 27 based on temperature observations. With weak cold air advection and persistent cloud cover, temperatures likely won't drop much across the area the remainder of this morning and remain in the 30's.
Conversely, the persistent cloud cover through the day will hinder how high temperatures will get during the day similar to yesterday.
As long as the cloud cover doesn't break, most of the area will warm only into the upper 30's to mid 40's. For precipitation amounts, the consensus is around another tenth or two across the snow area with the rest of the area seeing up to a tenth of an inch. Snow should taper off by the early afternoon hours as temperatures warm just enough to melt most of the snow that falls.

Tonight, cloud cover is forecast to linger through most of the night with a lack of air mass change and dry air to clear the moisture.
While winds are forecast to be relatively calm, the cloud cover and dewpoints around 30 will help keep temperatures in the lower to mid 30's.

Tomorrow, the upper pattern is forecast to begin changing with more ridging over the area. This will allow the area to warm up to near average temperatures in the low 60's. If the cloud cover clears early in the morning, mid to upper 60's would become more likely.
Precipitation remains unlikely with high pressure over the area and relatively drier air forecast to move in through the day.

Monday, a cut-off low is forecast to rotate around the larger low in Eastern Canada. This will help a surface low pressure system develop across the Plains. The southern part is forecast to cut off from the rest of the Plains and deepen slightly along the KS/CO border. With the low forecast to keep southwesterly flow over the area, warm air will be able to advect into the area and allow for temperatures to warm into the 70's and maybe even some low 80's. Another thing for Monday will be to watch for some chances for thunderstorms. While drier air is forecast to move in on Sunday, some low level moistures is forecast to linger in the Panhandles region. If the low doesn't move too far south, some of that moisture could be pulled into the area and develop storms along a surface convergence zone associated with the low. Severe weather chances currently look to be low with less than 1000 J/KG of CAPE and potential capping (though a boundary could overcome the cap).

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 255 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Tuesday...broad upper level ridging is forecast to move over the area from the west, in between low pressure systems over the Great Lakes/northeast part of the country and off the coast of southern California. Dry weather is anticipated during the day with increasing chances (20%-40%) for light rain showers and thunderstorms overnight as a batch of moisture in the 850-500mb layer moves off of the Colorado rockies and into the area.
GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperatures in the 10C to 16C range support NBM high temperatures in the middle 60s to lower 70s using typical mixing. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Northerly winds of 10 to 20 mph during the day become southerly at similar speeds after midnight.

Wednesday...this mornings ECMWF/GEM show the 500mb flow slightly shifting to the southwest, ahead of an upper level trough over California. The 00z GFS/GEFS models have the upper trough axis becoming slightly negatively tilted as it approaches the four corners area. Not much confidence in any one solution at this point so no changes anticipated to the NBM output. The forecast is currently calling for high temperatures in the upper 60s to middle 70s with low temperatures in the 40s. Tuesdays weather system exits the area in the morning with 20% chances for light rain showers east of Highway 25. There appears to be enough moisture in the 850-500mb layer to linger across much of the area to support 20%-40% chances for showers and thunderstorms overnight. Breezy southerly winds are anticipated for much of the day through about midnight with gusts up to 30 mph or so. If the GFS model verifies, winds may be higher given 6mb pressure falls of 6 to 11mb. Also, if the GFS verifies, fog would be possible given a saturated boundary layer that moves into the area from the south overnight.

Thursday...The 00z and yesterdays 18z run of the GFS and latest GEFS model shows Wednesdays 500mb trough lifting northeast into the Tri- State area during the day with a closed 557mb low, continuing east/northeast into south central Nebraska/north central Kansas overnight. The latest and previous runs of the ECMWF/GEM models show a large broad upper level trough over the western half of the country. Currently, the forecast is calling for high temperatures to be in the upper 70s to middle 80s which favors the warmer ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperature forecast. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 40s to middle 50s.

There continues to be a signal for a dryline to set up somewhere between Highway 27 and 25 during the day which would support shower/thunderstorm initiation, moving toward the northeast and likely out of the area sometime during the night. Presently, there is a rather broad approach to things with 20%-50% chances for showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon for much of the area, continuing into the evening before slowly dissipating a bit from southwest to northeast after midnight.

Near critical fire weather conditions are forecast during the day for locations south of Interstate 70 and west of Highway 25.

Friday...the large upper trough to our west looks to be reinforced by energy diving into its base from northern California. Presently, there is a 20%-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day with similar chances overnight. Looking at GFS/ECMWF 850-500mb relative humidity/qpf forecasts, there is a bit more confidence in precipitation occurring across the northwest 1/2 of the area during the day, dissipating around or shortly after midnight, if not before. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 70s to around 80 with low temperatures in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Near critical fire weather conditions are forecast during the day south of Highway 40.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 508 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

For KGLD... IFR conditions are forecast to start the period, improve to MVFR around 18-21Z, and then lower back to IFR around 03Z. For the first six hours, snow continues to develop and come in waves over the terminal. This has led to small periods of VFR conditions being reported by the Goodland ASOS. However, as the new snow showers move through, visibility has generally dropped below 2 miles and ceilings below 500ft. This is forecast to continue through the morning hours though the conditions may not get as bad with later snow showers as the intensity lowers. The afternoon may provide a break of sorts where ceilings could lift above 2000ft, but will need to see how much the precipitation keeps the air saturated. Either way, by this evening, ceilings are forecast to lower again to below 1000ft as the air saturates. The ceilings could lower to 200-300ft within the final six hours of the period.

For KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast to start the period, though rain showers will be in the area. As the morning goes on, more moisture is forecast to move over the terminal which will help lower ceilings to around 2000-3000ft. The rain showers could also pick up intensity during the afternoon hours. This evening, precipitation should dissipate, but the additional moisture will help lower ceilings through the night. Ceilings are forecast to drop below 1000ft after 06Z and could drop to 400-500ft.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

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