Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:50 PM Moonrise 2:29 PM   Moonset 2:47 AM

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FXUS63 KGLD 172311 AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 511 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms possible along and north of I-70 Saturday evening/night. Severe weather is not expected.

- Severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging winds are possible over portions of northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska on Sunday, mainly during the late aft/eve. Thunderstorm coverage and severe weather potential increase with eastern extent into central Kansas. In other words, areas located along and east of Highway 283 appear to be most at-risk.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024

Overview: Expect a transition to a more active pattern over the weekend.. in association with increasingly cyclonic flow /troughing/ aloft over the western CONUS. In this particular synoptic pattern.. a pattern in which two distinct /northern and southern stream/ branches of the upper level jet will intermingle/interact.. confidence in forecast specifics is well below average.

Sat-Sun AM: Southern stream shortwave energy anticipated to move ashore the southern CA coast late tonight and Sat morning will track ENE across the 4-Corners (Sat eve-night) and Central Plains (Sun morning). High-res guidance (e.g. HRRR, NAM NEST)
indicates that this feature may aid in, or enhance, the development of scattered convection along the CO Front Range and Palmer Divide (late Sat aft-eve) and portions of the Tri-State area (Sat eve-night), mainly along/north of I-70.. though solutions vary significantly with regard to convective coverage and duration. Either way, severe weather is not anticipated with convection in this time-frame.

Sun PM-Sun night: Challenging forecast. From a pattern recognition standpoint, a few things stand out, the most notable of which being: [1] a lack of strong/focused upper forcing, [2] the presence of a broad/weak lee cyclone and [3] a potential for ongoing (or antecedent) convection over portions of the area Sunday morning.. the latter of which could significantly alter environmental conditions over the Tri-State area (esp. in a pattern characterized by a weak, ill-consolidated MSLP-H85 height gradient). Prior experience in similar patterns advises a considerable amount of caution with regard to confidently ascertaining specific aspects of convective development, coverage, evolution and hazards. Broadly speaking, guidance continues to indicate that convective coverage and severe weather potential increase with eastern extent into central KS.
In other words, locations along/east of Highway 283 appear to be most at-risk.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 219 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024

For the long term, we are looking at daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to move across portions of the Tri-State area.
Monday currently has the best chance, despite low to medium confidence, for strong to severe thunderstorms across the forecast area. While an upper trough digs south over the Western CONUS, a surface low is expected to develop over Southwest Kansas Monday. Instability is expected to increase during the late afternoon/evening hours, which is the peak time for us to expect severe weather. Isolated storms may develop ahead of a potential MCS during the evening hours. Should the trend of an MCS continue, heavy rain and flooding would be a concern given the potential for rain over the next two days. As mentioned in the previous discussion widespread flooding is not anticipated given the Corfidi Vectors; however, localized flooding could occur.

For the remainder of the week, the upper trough will move east across the Central CONUS and up towards the Great Lakes by Thursday as nearly zonal flow sets up over the southern half of the country. As stated earlier, rain and storm chances continue each afternoon/evening as disturbances travel along the main upper level trough. There is currently low confidence in a severe threat for the remainder of the week but the exact location, timing, and any specific hazards are to far out to say with enough certainty at this time.

Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures are anticipated next week. Temperatures on Monday are forecast to be in the upper 70s to 80s with overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. A cold front passing through now on Tuesday will cool things off slightly with highs in the 60s to 70s and lows in the upper 30s to 40s. Wednesday through Friday sees a very gradual warm up across the area as temperatures return to the mid 70s to lower 80s by Friday. Overnight lows each of those nights will be in the 40s to lower 50s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 501 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast at both sites, however LLWS is expected again tonight at both sites. As the inversion sets up, near surface winds will remain around 10 to 15 kts while a low level jet develops a few hundred feet above the surface with speeds around 40kts. A front is then forecast to move in around 07-10Z that will shift surface and near surface winds to out of the northwest. The LLWS may briefly abate as the winds shift in direction, but should return and linger until around 14Z. Near surface winds will also be around 15 kts with gusts up to 30 kts when the front passes through.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

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