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FXUS61 KRLX 020538 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1238 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
A series of disturbances keep precipitation in the forecast through the middle of next week. Mild air this weekend gives way to colder air for the new work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 1040 PM Friday...

Forecast on track, with nothing more than spotty light drizzle around here and there, and temperatures not moving much in a nocturnal warm advection regime.

As of 645 PM Friday...

Forecast on track, with a mild but overcast and damp weekend unfolding.

As of 224 PM Friday...

-Dreary with patchy light rain and drizzle overnight into Saturday.

-More rain overspreads the region from southwest to northeast Saturday afternoon.

Southwest low level flow will continue to pump moisture into the region overnight into Saturday as a cold front moves slowly eastward toward the region. The plentiful low level moisture and some weak lift should keep patchy light rain, drizzle and some fog around overnight into the day on Saturday. Steadier rain will then increase again from southwest to northeast Saturday afternoon as another disturbance heads toward our region from the southern Plains.

Temperatures will remain fairly steady, if not rise a few degrees overnight with warm advection in the low levels.
Continued mild on Saturday with the lower elevations likely reaching the 60 degree mark. Despite the stronger southwest flow aloft, an inversion should keep winds rather light at the surface except for some higher gusts on the ridges.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 112 PM Friday...

Southwesterly flow continues across the CWA on Sunday, with a wave of low pressure moving northeast through the area, followed by an additional shortwave/low that will move east through the area later in the day. Temperatures should be warm enough on Sunday that the bulk of precipitation should be in the form of rain, but periods of light snow are possible across the higher terrain, with little to no snow accumulation expected. Late Sunday night into early Monday will generally dry out, however, yet another quick moving disturbance will move through the area, with more rain, and mountain rain and snow showers for Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1110 AM Friday...

Still looking like a clipper type system will affect the area in the Tuesday evening through Wednesday time frame. This will bring a reinforcing shot of cooler air into the region, and create light accumulating snowfall, particularly across the higher terrain. Snow flakes may even mix in at times across the lowlands, but bulk of any accumulations will occur across higher terrain due to warmer BL temperatures in the lowlands. System will generally depart to the east on Wednesday, but northwesterly flow will keep upslope snow showers going into at least early Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 1238 AM Saturday...

Moisture advecting under healthy H850 flow will keep patchy drizzle across the area at least through the overnight hours.
VFR/MVFR ceilings will result out of this activity.

A low pressure system approaching from the southwest will bring another round of light rain, at least south and east of the Ohio River, starting late Saturday. CAMs solutions suggest a cluster of rain moving in across the southern portions of WV and southwest VA by 22Z Saturday, and yet another disturbance brings additional precipitation Saturday night. Periods of IFR conditions will be possible along heavier showers and near the mountains tonight.

Light southerly flow prevails tonight. Surface winds become southwest by 15Z, veering from the northwest behind the front after 18Z Saturday. Then, winds will become light and variable between the systems Saturday afternoon and evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings and visibility could fluctuate at times, including more visibility restrictions and IFR ceilings at times overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SAT 12/02/23 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in rain, fog and stratus Saturday night into Sunday. IFR possible in snow in the higher elevations of the mountains Monday afternoon and evening, and in the mountains overnight Tuesday night through Wednesday.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

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