Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Hill, OH
May 17, 2024 6:25 AM EDT (10:25 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:15 AM Sunset 8:40 PM Moonrise 2:07 PM Moonset 2:27 AM |
FXUS61 KRLX 170951 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 551 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase today and linger into the weekend. Water issues possible this weekend with slow-moving thunderstorms and showers.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 135 AM Friday...
Models showing a band of precipitation moving into the area today, possibly aided by some afternoon heating later today. The moisture will remain over the area tonight as an upper level short wave enhances the chances of precipitation. Precipitable water values are in the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range. While not overly high, will have to keep an eye out for potential localized flash flooding as some areas are already fairly wet and locations could see multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 200 AM Friday...
Chances for precipitation will exist Saturday morning across the forecast area, with the mountains seeing the most likely manifestation. A surface low with a positive-tilt trough over the TN/AR/KY area very sluggishly moves northeastward towards the area on Saturday.
A moisture fetch carried by rounds of southern stream shortwaves will advect over the area providing an increase in rain and scattered thunderstorms through the day Saturday, especially as the moves overhead Saturday night. Rainfall could be heavy at times in the afternoon and evening with showers and storms, particularly across the southern mountains and coalfields of WV/KY/VA where over half an inch could fall.
The aforementioned low will start to slowly exit Sunday, but remnant moisture will linger across the area on Sunday. Thankfully, any additional amounts look rather light at this time. Temperatures will be warm and around the normal for the season on both days.
Latest NAM guidance shows PWATs between 1.25" and 1.50" over the area through the weekend. This paired with weak flow, which is typical with these southern stream systems that lack dynamic forcing, creates some concerns for flash flooding under slower moving storms and showers. That said, WPC has the area outlooked for a marginal risk of excessive rainfall Saturday and Sunday.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 230 AM Friday...
The area will be on the back side of a 500MB trough Monday morning, as a ridge of high pressure attempts to nudge in behind. Monday and Tuesday will be relatively dry as a result and a warming trend will be in full swing with upper 70s/lower 80s returning to the lowlands; upper 60s and 70s in the mountains.
Things look to become active for the rest of the week with a few shortwaves moving through the grungy ridge on Wednesday, allowing for possible diurnal convective activity to return.
The pattern then looks to flatten out going into Thursday with a few shortwaves moving through thanks to a parked upper-low over Canada.
Warm temperatures will still hold true with upper 80s possible across the typical lowland hot spots Tuesday and Wednesday.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 550 AM Friday...
Any remaining dense fog will dissipate early this morning as mid level clouds move into the area.
A band of showers and thunderstorms will move into the region today. After fog lifts early this morning, any IFR restrictions should be confined to showers and thunderstorms. Some MVFR cumulus is possible for a while late this morning and early this afternoon.
An upper level disturbance will provide additional showers and thunderstorms tonight. Any holes in the clouds could also allow for fog to form.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog dissipating early this morning could vary. Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms today could vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 05/17/24 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY M H L L H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M L M L M M H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H M H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in rain showers and thunderstorms Friday night into the weekend.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 551 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase today and linger into the weekend. Water issues possible this weekend with slow-moving thunderstorms and showers.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 135 AM Friday...
Models showing a band of precipitation moving into the area today, possibly aided by some afternoon heating later today. The moisture will remain over the area tonight as an upper level short wave enhances the chances of precipitation. Precipitable water values are in the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range. While not overly high, will have to keep an eye out for potential localized flash flooding as some areas are already fairly wet and locations could see multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 200 AM Friday...
Chances for precipitation will exist Saturday morning across the forecast area, with the mountains seeing the most likely manifestation. A surface low with a positive-tilt trough over the TN/AR/KY area very sluggishly moves northeastward towards the area on Saturday.
A moisture fetch carried by rounds of southern stream shortwaves will advect over the area providing an increase in rain and scattered thunderstorms through the day Saturday, especially as the moves overhead Saturday night. Rainfall could be heavy at times in the afternoon and evening with showers and storms, particularly across the southern mountains and coalfields of WV/KY/VA where over half an inch could fall.
The aforementioned low will start to slowly exit Sunday, but remnant moisture will linger across the area on Sunday. Thankfully, any additional amounts look rather light at this time. Temperatures will be warm and around the normal for the season on both days.
Latest NAM guidance shows PWATs between 1.25" and 1.50" over the area through the weekend. This paired with weak flow, which is typical with these southern stream systems that lack dynamic forcing, creates some concerns for flash flooding under slower moving storms and showers. That said, WPC has the area outlooked for a marginal risk of excessive rainfall Saturday and Sunday.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 230 AM Friday...
The area will be on the back side of a 500MB trough Monday morning, as a ridge of high pressure attempts to nudge in behind. Monday and Tuesday will be relatively dry as a result and a warming trend will be in full swing with upper 70s/lower 80s returning to the lowlands; upper 60s and 70s in the mountains.
Things look to become active for the rest of the week with a few shortwaves moving through the grungy ridge on Wednesday, allowing for possible diurnal convective activity to return.
The pattern then looks to flatten out going into Thursday with a few shortwaves moving through thanks to a parked upper-low over Canada.
Warm temperatures will still hold true with upper 80s possible across the typical lowland hot spots Tuesday and Wednesday.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 550 AM Friday...
Any remaining dense fog will dissipate early this morning as mid level clouds move into the area.
A band of showers and thunderstorms will move into the region today. After fog lifts early this morning, any IFR restrictions should be confined to showers and thunderstorms. Some MVFR cumulus is possible for a while late this morning and early this afternoon.
An upper level disturbance will provide additional showers and thunderstorms tonight. Any holes in the clouds could also allow for fog to form.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog dissipating early this morning could vary. Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms today could vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 05/17/24 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY M H L L H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M L M L M M H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H M H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in rain showers and thunderstorms Friday night into the weekend.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPMH GREATER PORTSMOUTH RGNL,OH | 11 sm | 18 min | calm | 4 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Lt Drizzle | 64°F | 61°F | 88% | 29.86 |
| KDWU ASHLAND RGNL,KY | 24 sm | 29 min | calm | 6 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Haze | 63°F | 29.86 |
Charleston, WV,
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