Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Hill, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Widespread frost/freeze conditions are expected tonight into early Sunday morning.

3) Quiet weather and a warming trend are expected next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The main feature, an upper trough will pivot east out of the area today which will take the precipitation with it. Strong northerly flow along with cold air advection will dry out the area by this afternoon. Some model soundings and Hi-res guidance indicate precipitation that could briefly mix in or change to snow across the highest elevations of the northeast mountains before ending this morning. Warm ground temperatures will preclude any accumulations. Clouds will linger throughout the day, especially across the mountains before the drier air building in from the north finally erodes the cloud decks by late afternoon.

The environment will decouple overnight and along with clear skies the perfect setup for a strong radiational cooling night will take place. This will cause the already cooler temperatures in place, which will be well below seasonable for this time of year, to plummet even further. Dewpoints will be 32 degrees or below across the board, therefore temperatures will have the capability to drop to below freezing or lower, especially for the mountains. For these reasons, the Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a warning for the entire area.

The same conditions are expected for Monday and Tuesday mornings with the possibility of frost across parts of the lowlands and freeze conditions in the mountains. If this Freeze Warning kills the growing season then no headlines would be needed but if there are areas that do not go below freezing then we may have to have some headlines going forward.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Quiet weather and a warming trend are expected next week. High pressure will remain in charge and anchored across the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians through much of the week, acting as a block against a closed upper level low meandering of the Mid-Atlantic and Carolina coast. This pattern will yield a prolonged stretch of dry weather. Temperatures will be on an upward trend next week after a few cool days, the values will likely climb into around seasonable or just above by midweek and beyond. Steady height rises and modifying air will allow these temperatures to moderate for the rest of the work week and the weekend. The next chance of precipitation in the medium range models is only in the Canadian NH which is forecast for next Saturday, however the other models do not agree with this solution and keep us dry for longer.

AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As the upper trough pivots across our area this morning CIGs will lower for a short period before climbing out of MVFR/IFR into VFR by early afternoon. The exit of this feature will also diminish rain chances to which the area will dry out and winds will relax a bit by mid to late afternoon and be out of the north around 5 to 10kts. Occasional gusts up to 20kts cannot be ruled out through the afternoon. Tonight will decouple and be cloud free so there could be some patchy river valley fog but confidence is low on this happening or affecting all sites. Did code up some MVFR in fog at most sites however guidance did not indicate any fog development overnight tonight therefore the forecast for fog tonight could change.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Clouds may take slightly longer to clear out today than what is in the forecast. There could be some patchy valley fog late tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SAT 10/17/26 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H M H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L H M H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H M M M H H H H H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
Calm winds and clear skies will favor late-night and early- morning dense river valley fog producing LIFR visibility restrictions Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday mornings.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087.
KY...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ003-004.