Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Hill, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Shower and thunderstorm chances return today amid the exodus of high pressure.

2) Active weather settles into the area for midweek and beyond, with daily showers and storms amid warm and muggy conditions.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Departure of high pressure makes room for a cutoff low pressure system to advance northward from the Carolinas beginning today.
Increased cloudiness has already been noted on satellite at the time of writing, with further vertical growth starting to transpire. Onshore flow developing in the wake of the surface high will continuously feed moisture into the region this week, setting off an active weather pattern.

Focusing on today, the northern fringes of the advancing cutoff low will bring shower and storm chances back into the Kanawha Valley through the afternoon. The loss of daytime heating at sunset will chop off further development and longevity of storms, but until then lightning and a quick downpour will be feature with today's activity. Patchy river valley fog and increased clouds will then round out the night into Wednesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An active weather pattern settles over the Central Appalachians for the rest of the week and into the weekend. The aforementioned cutoff low featured in Key Message 1 will work in tandem with longwave troughing aloft to promote daily chances for afternoon/evening showers and storms across the region.
Embedded shortwave energy drifting across the parent trough will lead to additional contribution for convective activity this week, but as it currently stands there is no strong signal for widespread severe weather this week.

Cumulus fields will bloom each afternoon as convective temperatures are reached in the early afternoon, followed by further intensification to showers and storms during peak heating hours. Isolated damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours will be the main features with activity this week, and could result in localized high water issues, dependent on placement of storms and antecedent soil conditions each day.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
18Z satellite and radar analysis shows increased clouds parked between 25-50kft AGL this afternoon amid an encroaching disturbance from the south. Further intensification into showers and storms will be possible this afternoon, so opted to maintain VCTS at a few terminals through the remainder of the Zulu day.

River valley fog development will be possible once again tonight into Wednesday morning, but could become dependent upon cloud coverage trends. Confidence of flight restrictions caused by fog is highest for EKN and CRW overnight, but other sites could become susceptible in the event of a shower or storm moistens the airfield today. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings looks to develop along the higher terrain throughout the night, slipping into the BKW area after midnight.

More diurnally driven activity is advertised for Wednesday, but confidence in timing and magnitude of flight impacts is low with this forecast issuance.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, becoming medium tonight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief restrictions possible in showers/storms through this evening. Overnight restrictions caused by fog and low ceilings may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR restrictions are possible with daily showers and thunderstorms Wednesday onward, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. IFR could also occur in river valley fog during the early morning hours this week.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.