Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chapman, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Broad westerly flow this afternoon aloft with some weak height rises noted into the northern plains. Widespread cloud cover blankets the state in the wake of the cold front, as a cooler and drier airmass holds temps to near 60 degrees this afternoon. Northerly winds around 10 mph subside this evening, shifting towards the east and southeast this weekend as sfc ridge axis settles over the Great Lakes region. Periodic scattered showers and embedded thunder may impact areas south of I-70 by Saturday afternoon as a h5 shortwave trough translates east over Oklahoma. Upper air pattern backs to the southwest Sunday as a strengthening upper low enters the four corners region. An upstream weaker wave develops showers and storms by Sunday evening in central/western Kansas areas.
MUCAPE in north central areas increase in upwards of 2000 J/KG at this time while effective bulk shear is on the weaker side around 30 kts. Storms that enter north central Kansas may see large hail and damaging wind gusts as the main hazards, however uncertainty exists on the coverage of storms with higher probabilities further north and west.

Negatively tilted closed low ejects into the northern plains by Monday evening while a secondary trough develops across the southwest CONUS. Ample theta-e advection as sfc dewpoints rise in the middle to upper 60s result in sfc CAPE values in excess of 3000- 4000 J/KG during peak heating. While preferred upper jet max is displaced further north and east, forecast soundings continue to indicate a weakening in the capping inversion by late afternoon while effective bulk shear values are at least 50 kts or greater to support severe storms, with the main question leaning towards initiation and coverage of development along the dryline. However, given the environmental parameters, storm hazards will include very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes. Initial cells may form into a cluster before pushing east/southeast into Missouri during the evening and overnight periods.

Tuesday and the first half of Wednesday are looking dry for now before the southwest low lifts northeast into the central plains Wednesday evening through Thursday. Latest ensemble trends are a bit further north with the 500 mb heights so overall consistency is low between model runs. Modest chance pops seem reasonable at this point given the uncertainty, however severe probs are on the lower side based on the track of the sfc low. After highs peak Monday in the low 80s, near normal temps in the low 70s become the norm for the remainder of the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 555 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

No significant changes to the going forecast for this period.
Marginal VFR Cigs continue to fill back in this evening and overnight with slight lowering into the morning. Clouds begin to scatter by late in the period as a surface ridge expands further south into the area. Winds gradually veer from a northerly to easterly component.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.