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FXUS63 KTOP 091126 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 526 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

DISCUSSION
Issued at 231 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Key Messages:

- Breezy today with cooler temperatures, back to near-normal.

- Dry with near to slightly above normal temperatures through much of next week.

- Next chance (20-30%) for precipitation comes late next week.

Discussion:

The shortwave that brought rain to the area yesterday afternoon and evening has shifted east into the mid-Mississippi Valley this morning, allowing for dry conditions to return. A closed low is centered over Minnesota with a wave of energy on the southern periphery of the low diving south across South Dakota and Nebraska.
This wave will pass through the area today bringing increased cloud cover, but a lack of moisture especially in the low-levels will keep the area dry. Northwest winds increase through the day with gusts of 30-35mph bringing in cooler air; temperatures will be 10-15 degrees cooler today than yesterday with highs back near climatological norms in the mid 40s. Drier air also builds in this afternoon allowing relative humidity values to fall near 30 percent across north central and central Kansas which, coupled with the strong winds, will lead to high fire danger for a few hours this afternoon. Surface winds gradually weaken overnight and lows fall into the low to mid 20s.

Northwest flow aloft persists through Monday before a closed low dives south across the western CONUS and zonal flow returns to the Plains for Tuesday. Temperatures remain near to slightly above normal through much of next week with highs in the 40s and 50s.
Uncertainty increases Thursday through the end of the week as guidance varies in the timing, strength, and location of the aforementioned closed low as it ejects across the Plains.
Nonetheless, the ejection of this wave will bring the next chance of precipitation to the area. The NBM has a 20-25% chance for measurable precipitation which lines up well with the GEFS while the ECMWF ensemble depicts a higher (40-60%) chance of measurable precipitation. Models have not shown much consistency to this point, keeping confidence in details low at this range.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 526 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

VFR stratus with bases of 3-4kft is building south out of Nebraska and will impacts terminals within the next few hours.
Conditions are expected to remain VFR with a low chance (10-20%)
of cigs dropping to MVFR this morning. Northwest winds become gusty by 15z with gusts of 25-30kts this afternoon before winds gradually weaken from 00z through the overnight period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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