Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Solomon, KS
May 18, 2024 6:29 PM CDT (23:29 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:13 AM Sunset 8:40 PM Moonrise 3:07 PM Moonset 2:47 AM |
FXUS63 KICT 181941 AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 241 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon- evening, a few strong storms are possible
- Severe storms likely on Sunday afternoon and evening for central and south central Kansas
- More severe storms look to impact the region again on Tuesday mainly along and east of the Kansas turnpike
- Additional rounds of storms will continue for Thursday-Friday
DISCUSSION
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
A frontal boundary will stall out over southern Kansas this afternoon and a few storms could develop as there will be some weak convergence present along the boundary. The flow aloft is rather weak so expecting storm structure to be less organized and a few strong storms will be possible. Meanwhile, a easterly low-level moist upslope regime north of the front will likely spark off convection over eastern Colorado later this afternoon. This activity should grow and expand into a slower forward propagating MCS as low level jet/moisture transport increases over western Kansas this evening and overnight. The complex of storms will mainly affect northern Kansas/central Nebraska for late tonight into Sunday morning. Some of this activity could spread into central Kansas with a few strong storms possible. This could also push an outflow boundary southward into south central Kansas which will likely mix back northward during the day on Sunday.
The focus will then shift to Sunday afternoon/evening as current satellite water vapor imagery shows a upper level wave moving eastward from the Pacific Ocean into southern California. This upper level system will race eastward across the Rockies tonight and eject into Nebraska/Kansas during the afternoon on Sunday. Mid-level temperatures will be rather warm and look to prohibit storm development until this upper wave approaches the dry-line by mid- late afternoon. Once storms develop they will quickly become severe given high instability/wind shear combination. The storms should initially start out as discrete supercells with 0-6km shear vector orientation more perpendicular to dry-line. The environment looks more mixed out with higher LCLs so very large hail and destructive winds up to 80mph will be main threats given higher DCAPE. There is some tornado potential and a risk window area would be mainly over south central Kansas just west and near I-35 in the evening as low-level jet increases(boosting 0-3km SRH) and LCLs could become a little lower in the deeper moisture. The storms look to congeal into a line of storms with cold pool interference with damaging to destructive winds becoming the main hazard as the evening goes on. Heading into Monday the warmer capping 700mb temperatures looks more formidable and with no upper wave to aid in upper forcing if any storms go along the dry line they would be isolated and could become severe. Tuesday we will have a better chance for severe storms to affect the region again as models show another upper level wave interacting with the dry line, and an associated cold front pushing southeast into a highly unstable and sheared environment.
Looks like a quiet weather day will be in store for Wednesday as surface high pressure builds over the region in the wake of Tuesday's frontal passage. However that looks to be short-lived with ensemble models showing mainly west/southwest flow aloft returning for Thursday and Friday which could lead to more rounds of storms over the region.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
VFR conditions will prevail for today and much of tonight across the region. A stalled out frontal boundary could give way to some isolated showers/storms over south central Kansas this afternoon/evening. The stalled out frontal boundary will begin to lift northward for late tonight into Sunday morning. Otherwise showers and storms could spread eastward across portions of central Kansas late tonight towards Sunday morning. South winds will gradually increase for mid-late Sunday morning.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 241 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon- evening, a few strong storms are possible
- Severe storms likely on Sunday afternoon and evening for central and south central Kansas
- More severe storms look to impact the region again on Tuesday mainly along and east of the Kansas turnpike
- Additional rounds of storms will continue for Thursday-Friday
DISCUSSION
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
A frontal boundary will stall out over southern Kansas this afternoon and a few storms could develop as there will be some weak convergence present along the boundary. The flow aloft is rather weak so expecting storm structure to be less organized and a few strong storms will be possible. Meanwhile, a easterly low-level moist upslope regime north of the front will likely spark off convection over eastern Colorado later this afternoon. This activity should grow and expand into a slower forward propagating MCS as low level jet/moisture transport increases over western Kansas this evening and overnight. The complex of storms will mainly affect northern Kansas/central Nebraska for late tonight into Sunday morning. Some of this activity could spread into central Kansas with a few strong storms possible. This could also push an outflow boundary southward into south central Kansas which will likely mix back northward during the day on Sunday.
The focus will then shift to Sunday afternoon/evening as current satellite water vapor imagery shows a upper level wave moving eastward from the Pacific Ocean into southern California. This upper level system will race eastward across the Rockies tonight and eject into Nebraska/Kansas during the afternoon on Sunday. Mid-level temperatures will be rather warm and look to prohibit storm development until this upper wave approaches the dry-line by mid- late afternoon. Once storms develop they will quickly become severe given high instability/wind shear combination. The storms should initially start out as discrete supercells with 0-6km shear vector orientation more perpendicular to dry-line. The environment looks more mixed out with higher LCLs so very large hail and destructive winds up to 80mph will be main threats given higher DCAPE. There is some tornado potential and a risk window area would be mainly over south central Kansas just west and near I-35 in the evening as low-level jet increases(boosting 0-3km SRH) and LCLs could become a little lower in the deeper moisture. The storms look to congeal into a line of storms with cold pool interference with damaging to destructive winds becoming the main hazard as the evening goes on. Heading into Monday the warmer capping 700mb temperatures looks more formidable and with no upper wave to aid in upper forcing if any storms go along the dry line they would be isolated and could become severe. Tuesday we will have a better chance for severe storms to affect the region again as models show another upper level wave interacting with the dry line, and an associated cold front pushing southeast into a highly unstable and sheared environment.
Looks like a quiet weather day will be in store for Wednesday as surface high pressure builds over the region in the wake of Tuesday's frontal passage. However that looks to be short-lived with ensemble models showing mainly west/southwest flow aloft returning for Thursday and Friday which could lead to more rounds of storms over the region.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
VFR conditions will prevail for today and much of tonight across the region. A stalled out frontal boundary could give way to some isolated showers/storms over south central Kansas this afternoon/evening. The stalled out frontal boundary will begin to lift northward for late tonight into Sunday morning. Otherwise showers and storms could spread eastward across portions of central Kansas late tonight towards Sunday morning. South winds will gradually increase for mid-late Sunday morning.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSLN SALINA RGNL,KS | 14 sm | 36 min | NNE 11 | 10 sm | Clear | 88°F | 57°F | 36% | 29.86 |
Topeka, KS,
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