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FXUS61 KILN 081409 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 909 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
Gusty southerly winds ahead of an approaching low pressure system will aid temperatures in warming 10 to 15 degrees above normal today. Moisture will increase with showers developing late tonight and becoming widespread Saturday ahead of a cold front. The cold front will cross the region Saturday night bringing sharply colder temperatures and causing the rain to mix with and change to snow prior to ending Sunday night. High pressure will then offer dry weather through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Mid level ridge to slide east across the Great Lakes today with flow backing southwesterly tonight. Latest satellite and obs show mostly sunny skies, though clouds are evident over Indiana in convergence ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
Pressure gradient tightens between high pressure along the east coast and the system moving into the MS Valley. Southwest winds around 15 mph will gust up to 25 mph at times. As moisture expands northeastward low clouds will develop across the area late in the day into this evening. Temperatures will rise to highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal - ranging from the mid 50s north to around 60 south.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
Broad southwesterly mid level flow over the area as ridge axis shift to the east coast and a trough digs across the Plains into the MS Valley late tonight into Sunday. Moisture increases with clouds thickening up tonight. Models rather consistent with 850 mb 50 KT low level jet nosing into the area late tonight into Saturday. This favorable moisture transport and forcing will result in the development of rain showers late tonight into Saturday morning. The showers will become widespread Saturday afternoon. A ribbon of marginal instability ahead of a cold front which slips into western Ohio early Saturday evening may result in embedded thunder Saturday afternoon.

Warm air advection and clouds will keep temperatures mild tonight with lows in the upper 40s to around 50 tonight. Warm temperatures to top out generally in the lower 60s on Saturday.
These readings will be 15 to 17 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Rain will become more constant overnight along a cold front that will move east, possibly with some embedded thunder through early Sunday morning. As the cold air pushes in during the day Sunday, any lingering rain will mix with snow and then be all snow by evening.
Models suggest that the precip would be very scattered in the late day and likely end by evening if not earlier. Any snow that occurs will not accumulate.

High pressure builds in the wake of the frontal system and settles into eastern KY/WV Monday evening, bringing return surface flow to the Ohio Valley. A dry cold front will cross overnight Tuesday, then a much stronger surface high will settle over the northern Ohio Valley for the latter half of the week with the aid of upper level ridging.

After Saturday night's lows in the mid 30s west to low 40s east, temperatures will return to seasonal normals through Tuesday night.
Daytime highs will then rise a little each day with sunny skies and slowly building heights. Low to mid 40s Wednesday will rise to the mid and upper 40s Thursday, then be within a few degrees of 50 on Friday.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Mid level ridge to slide east across the Great Lakes today with flow backing southwesterly tonight.

Prevailing VFR conditions during the daylight hours into this evening with MVFR ceilings overspreading the area toward sunrise Saturday as scattered showers develop.

Strong winds of 40-45 kts at 2000 feet AGL will lead to a period of LLWS early this morning.

Morning winds at the surface will increase to 10 to 15 kts with gusts of 20 to 25 kts, decreasing LLWS conditions after 14Z.

High level clouds this morning will be followed by clouds at 5000-6000 feet as moisture expands northeastward late in the day into tonight. Scattered showers will develop in the warm advection field associated with a 50 kt low level jet. Expect MVFR ceilings to develop late tonight into Saturday morning as the showers increase in coverage.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions possible Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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