Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oakbrook, KY
March 29, 2024 4:16 AM EDT (08:16 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:25 AM Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 11:43 PM Moonset 8:22 AM |
Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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FXUS61 KILN 290711 AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 311 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
An oscillating frontal boundary will remain across the region through the weekend and into early next week. A series of low pressure systems moving east along the boundary will lead to occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms over the next several days.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A weak warm front will remain across northern portions of our area through this afternoon. Weak isentropic lift across the area early this morning has been producing some isolated to scattered shower activity. Much of this activity has been weakening though as it moves into some drier air so will just allow for some sprinkles across about the southwest half of our area through daybreak. Otherwise as the forcing dissipates, expect skies to become partly cloudy through the rest of the day. Afternoon highs will range from the upper 50s northeast to the upper 60s across our southwest.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
The warm front will lift slowly north tonight as a strengthening low level jet shifts east into the Ohio Valley. This will lead to an increasing chance of showers and a few thunderstorms overnight, with the highest pops across northwest portions of our area, along the nose of the strengthening low level jet. This activity will shift east across our area with the low level jet through mid morning on Saturday. However, a trailing cold front will approach from the northwest through the afternoon hours. As daytime highs climb into the mid to upper 60s, some weak instability will develop through the afternoon, resulting in a lingering chance of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon hours.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
On Saturday evening, broad ridging will be setting up across the southern tier of states, with the Ohio Valley on the northern periphery of the ridge. A weak shortwave and surface low will be moving east through the Great Lakes, with a surface frontal boundary settling into Indiana and Ohio. This boundary may act as a focus for some showers (and possibly a thunderstorm) on Saturday night, though without much in the way of impacts.
Active weather will continue from Sunday through the middle of the week, with several different concerns worth discussing. On Sunday, the surface front will move slightly north, roughly bisecting the ILN forecast area and leading to a significant gradient in temperatures. The trend with model runs over the past day or so has been for this boundary to get a little further north than previously expected on Sunday, which will make for an even greater temperature disparity across the area. Temperatures may differ as much as 20 degrees from Hardin County OH (mid 50s) to Owen County KY (mid 70s).
With increasing 925mb-850mb theta-e advection directing itself toward this boundary, showers and storms are expected to develop by Sunday afternoon and evening. Some models suggest that on Sunday afternoon, the parameter space (shear / instability / lapse rates / precipitable water) could support a risk of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. The ECMWF is not quite as robust with this parameter space, but GFS/GEFS projections (with some CMC support) would suggest some hazardous weather is possible.
Monday may be more of the same, as the frontal boundary continues to oscillate around the area, perhaps moving slightly north of the position it was in on Sunday. Showers and storms will continue to be possible on Monday, though lapse rates may be less impressive as the column continues to moisten. This may point to a continued threat for heavy rain as the bigger concern, but some strong to severe storms could not be discounted either.
Finally, the forecast details are much more uncertain for Tuesday.
As a deep trough ejects out of the plains, a surface low is expected to move through the Ohio Valley, with a cold front crossing the area by Tuesday night. The GFS/GEFS has generally depicted a stronger, more wrapped-up system, while the ECMWF and its ensemble members are generally on a weaker and more progressive solution. The CMC is largely out of phase with the other models. It is certain that there will be a continued chance for showers and storms on Tuesday, but the strength and timing and track of the surface low (not to mention the depth of the mid-level trough) will have a large impact on any potential hazards on Tuesday. Convective concerns will come to an end on Tuesday night once the cold front has passed the area.
The key points here are that there will be repeated chances for showers and storms on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. At occasional points during this period, there will be a chance for some strong to severe storms, along with repeated heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty on the details, making it difficult to forecast specific threats, modes, or timing for hazardous weather.
Beyond Tuesday, there is fairly strong model agreement that a large closed upper low will develop behind the main system on Wednesday.
There are, of course, again differences between models in timing and magnitude. Cyclonic flow on the back side of this system will likely bring cold advection and chances for precipitation on Wednesday.
Some precipitation could be possible on Thursday as well, depending on the eastward progress of the upper low.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Scattered light rain showers will drift southeast across the region through daybreak but should have minimal operational effects on the TAF sites. Pcpn will taper off through mid morning with mid and high level clouds affecting the area at times through the remainder of the TAF period. A developing low level jet will lead to the possibility of some LLWS late tonight into early Saturday morning.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Saturday. MVFR/IFR conditions along with a chance of thunderstorms possible Sunday through Tuesday.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 311 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
An oscillating frontal boundary will remain across the region through the weekend and into early next week. A series of low pressure systems moving east along the boundary will lead to occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms over the next several days.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A weak warm front will remain across northern portions of our area through this afternoon. Weak isentropic lift across the area early this morning has been producing some isolated to scattered shower activity. Much of this activity has been weakening though as it moves into some drier air so will just allow for some sprinkles across about the southwest half of our area through daybreak. Otherwise as the forcing dissipates, expect skies to become partly cloudy through the rest of the day. Afternoon highs will range from the upper 50s northeast to the upper 60s across our southwest.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
The warm front will lift slowly north tonight as a strengthening low level jet shifts east into the Ohio Valley. This will lead to an increasing chance of showers and a few thunderstorms overnight, with the highest pops across northwest portions of our area, along the nose of the strengthening low level jet. This activity will shift east across our area with the low level jet through mid morning on Saturday. However, a trailing cold front will approach from the northwest through the afternoon hours. As daytime highs climb into the mid to upper 60s, some weak instability will develop through the afternoon, resulting in a lingering chance of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon hours.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
On Saturday evening, broad ridging will be setting up across the southern tier of states, with the Ohio Valley on the northern periphery of the ridge. A weak shortwave and surface low will be moving east through the Great Lakes, with a surface frontal boundary settling into Indiana and Ohio. This boundary may act as a focus for some showers (and possibly a thunderstorm) on Saturday night, though without much in the way of impacts.
Active weather will continue from Sunday through the middle of the week, with several different concerns worth discussing. On Sunday, the surface front will move slightly north, roughly bisecting the ILN forecast area and leading to a significant gradient in temperatures. The trend with model runs over the past day or so has been for this boundary to get a little further north than previously expected on Sunday, which will make for an even greater temperature disparity across the area. Temperatures may differ as much as 20 degrees from Hardin County OH (mid 50s) to Owen County KY (mid 70s).
With increasing 925mb-850mb theta-e advection directing itself toward this boundary, showers and storms are expected to develop by Sunday afternoon and evening. Some models suggest that on Sunday afternoon, the parameter space (shear / instability / lapse rates / precipitable water) could support a risk of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. The ECMWF is not quite as robust with this parameter space, but GFS/GEFS projections (with some CMC support) would suggest some hazardous weather is possible.
Monday may be more of the same, as the frontal boundary continues to oscillate around the area, perhaps moving slightly north of the position it was in on Sunday. Showers and storms will continue to be possible on Monday, though lapse rates may be less impressive as the column continues to moisten. This may point to a continued threat for heavy rain as the bigger concern, but some strong to severe storms could not be discounted either.
Finally, the forecast details are much more uncertain for Tuesday.
As a deep trough ejects out of the plains, a surface low is expected to move through the Ohio Valley, with a cold front crossing the area by Tuesday night. The GFS/GEFS has generally depicted a stronger, more wrapped-up system, while the ECMWF and its ensemble members are generally on a weaker and more progressive solution. The CMC is largely out of phase with the other models. It is certain that there will be a continued chance for showers and storms on Tuesday, but the strength and timing and track of the surface low (not to mention the depth of the mid-level trough) will have a large impact on any potential hazards on Tuesday. Convective concerns will come to an end on Tuesday night once the cold front has passed the area.
The key points here are that there will be repeated chances for showers and storms on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. At occasional points during this period, there will be a chance for some strong to severe storms, along with repeated heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty on the details, making it difficult to forecast specific threats, modes, or timing for hazardous weather.
Beyond Tuesday, there is fairly strong model agreement that a large closed upper low will develop behind the main system on Wednesday.
There are, of course, again differences between models in timing and magnitude. Cyclonic flow on the back side of this system will likely bring cold advection and chances for precipitation on Wednesday.
Some precipitation could be possible on Thursday as well, depending on the eastward progress of the upper low.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Scattered light rain showers will drift southeast across the region through daybreak but should have minimal operational effects on the TAF sites. Pcpn will taper off through mid morning with mid and high level clouds affecting the area at times through the remainder of the TAF period. A developing low level jet will lead to the possibility of some LLWS late tonight into early Saturday morning.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Saturday. MVFR/IFR conditions along with a chance of thunderstorms possible Sunday through Tuesday.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KCVG CINCINNATI/NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTL,KY | 9 sm | 24 min | WSW 04 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 46°F | 28°F | 49% | 30.06 | |
KLUK CINCINNATI MUNI AIRPORT LUNKEN FIELD,OH | 20 sm | 23 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 48°F | 30°F | 50% | 30.07 |
Wilmington, OH,
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