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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oakbrook, KY

June 25, 2024 2:28 PM EDT (18:28 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 9:10 PM
Moonrise 11:20 PM   Moonset 8:55 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakbrook, KY
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Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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365 FXUS61 KILN 251758 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 158 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
An unsettled pattern, with several chances for showers and storms, will persist through Wednesday before drier conditions briefly return for Thursday and Friday. However, rain and storm chances return once again on Saturday, with drier conditions favored for Sunday into early next week. Near to above normal temperatures are expected for the foreseeable future.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MCS pushing south across northern Indiana and northern Ohio this morning has shown some signs of weakening over the last couple of hours along at least its eastern edge. This is due in part to an outflow boundary pushing out ahead of the convection as well as the fact that it is moving into a relatively stable airmass. We do expect this weakening trend to continue over the next few hours as it progress south into northern portions of our area.

A lot of uncertainty then remains for how things will progress as we head through this afternoon and into this evening. Better instability is forecast to advect eastward into our area through this afternoon but this will be complicated by the potential for some debris cloudiness overspreading our area from the north from the morning MCS. Meanwhile, the remnant outflow boundary will also be pushing south into our area through the afternoon hours. This will likely lead to a decent temperature gradient with highs ranging from the mid 80s north to the low to possibly mid 90s across our far south.

The 12Z CAMs are fairly sparse with redevelopment later this afternoon and into this evening. However, there is some concern that this may be underdone with the remnant boundary pushing south into the destabilizing airmass. Think the best chance for redevelopment would be for areas along and west of I-75/south of I-70 where the potential will exist for some better instability later this afternoon/evening, as the 12Z NSSL WRF may be suggesting. If storms do redevelop later this afternoon/evening, high dcapes in excess of 1000 J/KG would lead to mainly a damaging wind threat. Locally heavy rainfall would also be possible given the high PWs.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
The fcst for this evening through Wednesday following the expectation for daytime convection becomes even muddier, unfortunately. It seems plausible, given the latest data, that there will be a several hour lull in pcpn locally following the afternoon/early evening storms. This lull should stretch past midnight into the middle of the night before additional loosely- organized activity moves back in from the W by/after 06z-09z.
The storms tonight are likely to be much more disorganized and not pose such a potential for strong/severe activity. However, any of this activity will bring with it the potential for some lightning and very heavy downpours/localized ponding of water.

Coverage of SHRA/TSRA should be on the increase toward daybreak and beyond, but there are quite a few uncertainties in how things will unfold on Wednesday in terms of a hazardous-weather perspective.

There is likely to be better forcing moving E through the region Wednesday morning through the daytime, potentially too much so. In fact, in an uncapped environment, the focus for any organized storms appears rather nebulous (except along the SE- moving front very late in the day), potentially leading to a somewhat "grungy" environment characterized by poor LL (and midlevel) lapse rates. This would suggest that storms/updrafts may struggle to become particularly intense, with much more in the way of widespread storms, with only a few becoming strong to severe briefly. There will be slightly better LL and deep- layer flow fields to work with Wednesday, but the poor deep- layer lapse rates and slightly less unstable environment cast some doubt onto the coverage of /severe/ storms.

Rainfall through the period will be highly-variable, both in time and space, but would expect that some spots will pick up 1-2 inches between now and Wednesday evening, especially with the anomalously-high PWATs expected region-wide for the daytime Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
The frontal boundary will be moving through the CWA at the start of the extended period and any lingering showers/storms will be moving southeast out of the region.

Post frontal air on Thursday indicates high temperatures in the low 80s with dew points in the lower 60s... will feel much drier than previous days. Weak ridging and surface high pressure take over and we`ll have mostly sunny skies with some CAA cu. Overnight lows in the upper 50s/ low 60s as we head into Friday.

Friday we see yet another disturbance on the horizon and return southerly flow helps pump warm, moist air back into the region. Mid and upper level clouds increase and highs reach back into the upper 80s. Precip from this system looks to move into the region sometime Friday into Saturday as the warm associated with this disturbance lifts through the area. This keeps temperatures on the warmer side, with highs in the upper 80s/ low 90s for Friday and Saturday. As of right now, the cold front looks to push through Saturday sometime and given the amount of moisture pumped up/ robust looking nature of the parent low pressure, wouldn`t be surprised to see some stronger storms move through, but time will tell.

Ridging and high pressure move into the region on the backside of this system and Sunday we dry out again. Temperatures cool slightly in the post cold-frontal air and highs reach the mid 80s. The high looks to remain in control for at least another few days, so anticipating dry conditions for the start of the working week.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The boundary from the morning convection is continuing to push south across central portions of our area with the wind shifting to the north behind it. Showers and thunderstorms are also continuing along and just behind this boundary and these will affect the TAF sites over the next couple of hours.

Another area of showers and storms currently back across central Illinois will slide east-southeast along the boundary and may eventually affect KCVG/KLUK through late afternoon and early evening. We then may see a lull in pcpn through late evening and into the overnight hours. However, additional showers and thunderstorms will redevelop and overspread the area later tonight and into the day on Wednesday as a cold front drops southeast into the the Ohio Valley.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KCVG CINCINNATI/NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTL,KY 9 sm36 minSSW 11G1710 smOvercast86°F64°F49%29.96
KLUK CINCINNATI MUNI AIRPORT LUNKEN FIELD,OH 20 sm35 minSSW 1110 smMostly Cloudy88°F66°F49%29.94
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Wilmington, OH,




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