Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oakbrook, KY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Activity will diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating, though some isolated storms could linger through the overnight hours.
Models continue to keep some higher chances of storms in eastern CWA overnight.

A good blanket of cloud cover and continuing southerly winds will keep mild temperatures overnight as they drop fairly uniformly to bottom out around 60 degrees.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
A relative lull in activity will be found during the morning, though the area will not be completely free of convection. These storms will be on the increase through the day ahead of an approaching cold front that will cross the region overnight. High temperatures will top out in the mid 70s, with cloud cover limiting large swings that can typically be found across the area. These clouds are also expected to limit low level instability ahead of the front, which will be offset by some weak shear to continue what is expected to be more widespread activity through the daytime hours into the evening.

As the front crosses, it will mark the end of any showers and thunderstorms. Sky cover will begin to clear out further behind the cold frontal passage. Lows will be dictated by the location of the front and are expected to range from 50 in the northwest to near 60 in the southeast.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A cold front will be exiting to the east Saturday morning while its parent mid level trough also pushes east across the remainder of the Great Lakes, New England, and southeast Canada. Precipitation will come to an end followed by partial clearing from west to east during the afternoon. It will be cooler. Highs will range from the upper 50s north to the mid 60s south.

The cooler than normal trend will continue into Saturday night and Sunday as high pressure at the surface and aloft arrive over the region. Lows by Sunday morning will be in the upper 30s to the lower 40s (low chance of frost) with highs warming into the 65 to 70 degree range for Sunday.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will gradually shift east of the area during the Sunday night into Monday timeframe. Cool lows in the 40s will warm up nicely into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees on Monday as southerly flow increases.

The next weather maker is poised to affect the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley area Tuesday into Tuesday night. With mid level troughing moving east across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, an attendant cold front will be pushed southeast into the region. Warm, humid air will be advected ahead of the front. This will at least bring moderate instability. This instability will couple with at least moderate shear, which will allow thunderstorms to organize ahead of the front (perhaps even along a prefrontal trough). CIPS analogs, CSU ML, and SPC all have a slight risk for severe storms for Tuesday into Tuesday night. Will make mention of this generically in the HWO until details can be worked out as we get closer in time. After lows mainly in the 60s, highs on Tuesday will warm into the lower to mid 80s. Lows Tuesday night will drop into the lower 50s north to the lower 60s south.

Frontal boundary will likely stall out somewhere in the Ohio Valley Wednesday/Thursday, along with additional mid level s/wv energy ejecting northeast from the central/southern Plains into the area.
This will keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Lows will remain mild in the 50s with highs in the upper 60s to the mid 70s.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Showers, with some embedded thunderstorms, will continue across the area for the next couple of hours. Chances for a shower or storm seem highest at the KCVG/KLUK sites compared to the others. Overnight, there will remain a very low chance of a shower or thunderstorm, but too low to include in the TAFs. Prevailing VFR conditions are expected.

Tomorrow, there is high confidence in greater coverage of storms than today, especially during the late morning through early evening hours. SHRA with VCTS has been included for all TAF sites. Although it is too early to pinpoint any specific timing or locations, where thunderstorms develop, IFR conditions will be possible, along with gusty winds. In addition, MVFR ceilings and visibilities will move into the area as well, particularly after 18Z. Some IFR ceilings are possible tomorrow evening.

OUTLOOK.. MVFR to IFR conditions may continue through Friday night into Saturday. Thunderstorms are possible again on Tuesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.