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FXUS61 KILN 140533 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 133 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
A low pressure system will slowly track across the Ohio Valley through Wednesday, brining unsettled weather to the region. Dry weather returns Thursday with high pressure.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Only subtle adjustments were made to the ongoing fcst for the near term period. Pockets of light SHRA will slowly expand in coverage as we progress toward/beyond midnight and especially as we get closer to daybreak. Activity for the overnight period should be light in nature as the column slowly saturates from S to N through the period. Total rainfall through daybreak should generally be a tenth of an inch or less, with isolated higher pockets possible.

The extensive cloud cover and influx of deeper-layer and LL moisture will translate into a much warmer night than has been the case the past several days as temps only dip into the upper 50s and lower 60s area-wide.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
For tonight, a mid level low pressure system will slowly move from western Missouri to central Missouri. However, a mid level disturbance will eject northeast ahead of this main low into our region. This disturbance will be located in a regime of increasing deeper moisture and some low level forcing associated with a modest low level jet. This will result in numerous to widespread shower activity as it pivots northeast through the region. An isolated thunderstorm may occur as well. Clouds, higher humidity, and southerly flow will keep temperatures warm in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
Lead mid level disturbance will rotate northeast out of our area Tuesday morning. This will then be followed by the main low pressure system as it slowly moves east into Indiana. We may get a brief respite in pcpn chances from about mid morning into early afternoon. Then, large scale ascent, diurnal instability, and weak low level lift will bring high chances for showers and thunderstorms from west to east from mid afternoon into the evening hours. MLCAPEs will be just under 1000 J/kg, and overall deep layer shear will be weak, so not much is expected in the way of severe storms. However, locally gusty winds and small hail can not be ruled out. In addition, with PWATs approaching 1.50 inches, and with the prospect of slower moving storms/training, there will be some threat of localized flooding. Will continue to mention that in the HWO. Highs will be kept down due to clouds and pcpn. They will range from the lower 70s northwest to the mid/upper 70s southeast.

For Tuesday night, the mid level low will move into the middle Ohio Valley. Showers and storms are forecast, but storms should dwindle in probability as the night wanes as overall instability decreases. Again, localized heavy rain will be possible which could lead to some flooding issues. Lows will range from the mid 50s north to the lower 60s south.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
On Wednesday morning, a slowly-moving upper low will be centered over the Ohio Valley, moving east through the area.
This upper low will also have an associated surface low, which will generally remain stacked with the upper low. Surface flow will be shifting to the north behind a front, though as the low levels are cooling, the upper levels will also have some colder air moving into the region. That may allow for some low-end instability, and chances for thunder will be kept in the forecast through Wednesday evening. Overall forcing is largely expected to be associated with any remaining vorticity rotating around the departing upper low, but chances will gradually diminish from northwest to southeast in a general sense.

A very narrow ridge is expected to move into the area Thursday, bringing drier conditions to the area. However, the forecast has trended a little less pronounced with this ridge, indicating that clouds and even some very low end precipitation chances may remain for Thursday. Confidence is low in the pattern for Friday and Saturday, as there remains model disagreement in the amplitude and timing of the next upstream trough. Friday looks quite likely to have rain in the area, but by Saturday, there are conflicting signals on whether or not the system will be pulling east, or if the deep-layer moisture transport in the area ahead of the trough will still be in place.

As the pattern changes to something pseudo-zonal, weather may remain somewhat unsettled heading into Sunday and Monday. The forecast will contain low-end PoPs for both days.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be the coolest of the extended forecast period, with highs in the lower 70s. This is near normal. For the rest of the extended, temperatures will be on the increase, with values reaching the 80s by Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Aviation will be impacted by low pressure tracking to Southern Indiana. A band of showers has developed and it will affect TAF sites during the first hours of the forecast. MVFR ceilings are expected to form this morning as the lower atmosphere moistens.
There should be improvement back to VFR this afternoon as mixing increases.

Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast for this afternoon and evening as instability rises with daytime heating. Winds backing from south to east may remain under 10 knots through the period. CVG could see a return of MVFR ceilings near the end of their 30 hour TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs /VSBYs are possible with thunderstorms Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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