Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lawrence, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery and initialized model data showed an upper trough along the AZ/NM border, extending southward across northwest Mexico. An upper trough was lifting northeast across New England. A northern Stream Trough extended southward across west central Canada southward across MT and northern ID.

The 6Z surface analysis showed that elevated storms over southern OK and north TX have produced outflow that has pushed the surface front down to the Red River Valley of TX/OK.

Isentropic lift and ascent ahead of a mid level pertibation that rounded the southwest US H5 trough was causing a an area of steady rain that was skirting the far southeast counties of Coffey and Anderson county. This first perturbation will move northeast across central MO and the area of steady rain will shift northeast of the CWA by 4 AM.

Today through Thursday:

The H5 trough along the AZ/NM border will lift northeast across west TX and OK Today and Tonight. The H5 trough will be lifting northeast across central MO and AR by Thursday afternoon.

The surface front will remain across southern OK and may continue to be pushed south due to outflow from severe thunderstorms developing along and south of the front and east of a dryline across the west TX South Plains. This will decrease our richer moisture source but isentropic lift of residual moisture and ascent ahead of the H5 trough axis due to DCVA will provide for periods of showers developing through the mid morning and afternoon hours and continuing over night. I can't rule out some elevated thunderstorms, since MUCAPES may increase around or slightly above 500 J/KG. I don't expect any of the elevated storms to be strong this afternoon or Tonight.

As the H5 trough axis shifts east across the eastern KS, the showers should shift east into MO. A surface cold front will move southeast across the area during the morning hours and the showers will probably exit the area during the late morning and early afternoon hours of Thursday. Due to large scale deep moist convection across north TX, the richer moisture supply will be limited. Total QPF through Thursday will only range betweeen 0.15" and 0.5", so I do not expect any flooding issues. Highs Today will only reach the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. If we get more insolation Thursday afternoon, then highs will be a few degrees higher, despite low-level CAA behind the front, highs should reach the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Thursday night through Friday:

The H5 trough across west central Canada and MT will dig southeast across the northern high Plains, then into the central Plains Friday afternoon. There will probably be enough ascent ahead of the amplifying H5 trough for showers and a few thunderstorms to develop Friday afternoon across the CWA Low- level moisture will limited and MLCAPES will be less than 1000 J/KG even with some insolation in the early afternoon. The H5 trough will pass across eastern KS by early evening, brining an end to any showers or thunderstorms. Highs on Friday will only reach the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.

Friday night through Monday:

The ECMWF/GFS/Canadian model solutions are in good agreement moving an amplified upper low onshore across central/southern CA and slowly moving this trough east across the southwestern US. All show a bit of an omega block across the eastern Plains and upper Midwest.
This will mean dry weather through the period with mostly clear skies and highs in the 70s.

Monday night through Wednesday:

The longer range model solutions diverge a bit. The GFS and ECMWF slowly bring the H5 low east across the Plains by mid week. So there may be increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. The Canadian model keeps the Upper low farther west, which would mean the dry conditions would continue across the CWA through mid week.
Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will reach the mid to upper 70s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Expect VFR conditions to hold through 9Z. Scattered rain showers will be developing after 12Z at the terminals, expect during periods of showers that ceilings will drop to low MVFR/IFR criteria, but deeper mixing during the afternoon hours will probably raise ceilings above 3000 feet. Off and on rain showers will be possible through Wednesday evening before ending late.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.