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FXUS63 KTOP 022013 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 213 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

DISCUSSION
Issued at 215 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Key Messages

- Cloudy and cold afternoon with light drizzle developing over east central Kansas through the afternoon (15-25% confidence).
The drizzle and low clouds may also redevelop patchy dense fog through the evening.

- Two additional systems pass through the region tomorrow and Monday evening with no accumulating precip anticipated.

- Above normal temperatures return next week with highs in the 60s.

Areas of fog have struggled to lift this afternoon with the light winds and low sun angle present. Additionally, a southern stream upper trough axis over the OK panhandles continues to advect low level moisture in the form of stratus that should linger through much of the evening. Embedded lift upstream of the wave is noted by light radar echoes across southeast Kansas currently. I anticipate these light shower/drizzle bands to lift northeast through the early evening across areas generally southeast of the KS turnpike. Precip coverage may be limited due to the weak amplitude of the embedded vort max, however cannot rule out scattered light showers or drizzle that could further limit visibilities below 1/4 mile towards early evening so will need to monitor this potential.

The next embedded trough progressively tracks across northeast Kansas tomorrow afternoon. While deterministic/ensemble models have maintained little to no precip in our area, latest short term and HRRR guidance is signaling more widespread light qpf amounts developing along the cold front Sunday afternoon. For this reason, I introduced slight pops for rain during the day, but may need to consider expanding the coverage and increasing if model trends continue. Probs of seeing at least 0.01 inches are fairly low in our area in the 10-20% range. Despite the returning cloud cover, highs do rebound into the upper 40s as westerly winds increase behind the front from 15 to 20 mph sustained.

A final upper trough clips northeastern portions of the forecast area Monday evening dry, with the exception of some passing clouds.
Upper ridge builds eastward next week as southerly flow returns warmer air to the region, as much as 15 degrees above normal values in the lower to middle 60s Wednesday onward. Ensembles from the GFS and EC are similar in depicting the ridge breaking down in response to a developing system next weekend. Low rain chances were introduced into the forecast for now with the likelihood of cooling temps by the end of the period.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

With the weak sfc mixing and dense fog that developed over terminals this morning, models have been struggling on timing of the fog lifting in conjunction with increasing IFR to LIFR stratus observed spreading northeast. Overall thinking is to have dense fog linger on the northern edge of the LIFR stratus before visibilities improve between 1-3SM in the afternoon as the low stratus settles in. Precip probs remain too low and focused east of terminals for a mention. LIFR stratus is likely to linger thru Sunday morning with high uncertainties on timing of the stratus clearing.



TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.

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