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FXUS63 KTOP 072026 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 226 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

DISCUSSION
Issued at 223 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Key Messages:

- Warm and breezy conditions linger through sunset today.

- Brief round of rain Friday PM, mainly east-central Kansas.

- Dry with seasonable temperatures for the weekend and into next week.

Current water vapor imagery shows strong upper ridging over the Plains, while over the western CONUS a broad upper trough is in place. Several embedded shortwaves are evident within the longer wave trough, and the first of these currently moving over the Front Range. This has helped create a broad surface trough over the High Plains, with a tight pressure gradient in place to the east across our region. Deep mixing is helping temperatures climb into the mid 60s while also bringing down stronger winds aloft. As such, gusty south winds remain in place this afternoon, up to 25 mph sustained and 35-40 mph in gusts. Can't rule out briefly reaching advisory criteria somewhere in east-central Kansas where the LLJ is the strongest, but any such stronger gusts look to remain isolated.
Winds weaken after sunset as boundary layer mixing decreases and the approaching trough/frontal boundary pushes the core of the LLJ off to the east. Can't rule out some patchy fog (40% chance) across east- central Kansas where winds are lightest and RH highest along the frontal boundary.

Tomorrow, guidance remains consistent that a surface low will develop along the frontal boundary and lift northeast, staying just south/east of the forecast area. Slight chance (20%) that there could be an isolated heavier shower or weak thunderstorm south of I- 35 if the low can track just enough north to bring some weak instability into the area. However the most likely scenario is for only some light rain across east-central Kansas, associated with isentropic ascent north of the surface low. Temperatures do cool to near freezing by early Saturday morning, but confidence is now high (90-99%) that precipitation will have entirely moved out by the time this occurs, given the positively tilted nature to the upper trough.

For the weekend and into the first half of next week, dry and quiet conditions will prevail as the region sits under northwest flow aloft on the backside of the departing upper trough. Temperatures look to be coolest over the weekend with a gradual warming trend into mid-week, but overall will stay fairly seasonable for the time of year. Confidence in temperatures and precipitation chances decreases for the second half of next week, as guidance spread increases with the evolution of an approaching western trough.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1106 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

South winds approaching 20 kts with gusts to near 30 kts will continue for the afternoon. They then weaken after sunset to below 10 kts by late evening, eventually becoming more westerly as well.
By tomorrow morning some fog and lower ceilings should develop near a frontal boundary across far east-central KS, but this looks to stay southeast of KTOP/KFOE.



CLIMATE
Updated at 223 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Record high temperature information for December 7:

Location Current Record High Forecast High

Topeka 70, set in 1894 66 Concordia 69, set in 1894 65

Record highest minimum temperature information for December 7:

Location Current Record Highest Minimum Forecast Low

Topeka 54, set in 1894 46 Concordia 39, set in 1915 41

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.

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